Uptrend's Account Talk

[airlift]

In a rally, there are usually 3 drives to a high. From the March 2009 lows that would be: 1) March - May, 2) July and 3) September. The October surge from SPX 1019 is a little strange. The market started a downtrend from 1080, rose back up and is now backtesting a broken trendline with a double top. Double tops can be a little higher on the right side or can equal the former top (1080) and break down. A little higher would stall somewhere near or below the 50% fibonacci retracement near SPX 1121.

My system is not confirming a move into the market in C S or I at this time.

Here is a chart of bonds 10 year treasury notes (TNX):

View attachment 6966

From the start of 2009 we see a bearish rising wedge (the rising yellowish lines) that broke down in mid August. This is when bonds started a slow but sure rally in price. Next notice the downward sloping green channel. this goes back many years. You can see the TNX recently fell below the center green line near 3.50% yield, and is now back above. However, IMO the chart is bearish because: 1) where the market is now is between the pink horizontal line and the middle green line - this is a bearish descending triangle, 2) the green channel is sloping down, 3) the bearish rising wedge broke down, and 4) the MACD and RSI point down. I am seeing the purple horizontal line as significant support just under a 3.00% yield. The 3.50% yield middle green line is support for now, but has been broken under recently, so can be easily compromised. Based on these factors, I see higher prices ahead for bonds. This is also a contrarian market indicator.

Uptrend,

This is only to share some possibilities. You mentioned above that "The October surge from SPX 1019 is a little strange." I agree. Perhaps part of the explanation was discussed this morning on CNBCs Strictly Money (Europe) around 6:00 A.M.

The conclusion I understood is that this will be a jobless recovery with massive asset reflation worldwide - associated with massive liquidity. Presumably this rally to the upside should continue, with corrections of course. Perhaps this explains why the traditional TA indicators, signs, and signals are not as "predictive" as they are in "normal" times.

With all due respect, I leave any further analysis or conclusions to others. Best wishes!

 

[Uptrend]

Airlift:
I agree. Trash the dollar by massive liquidityand cause the assets to revalue higher. However, I see a short-term bottom coming on the US dollar chart. And the Fed is walking a tightrope, with US dollar holders thinking about moving out and exchanging for yen and euros.

Look at the SPX futures hourly chart today /ES. You can see the market has broke down from the trendline (pink one in the middle) which supports the 1019 momentum low. It made a second backtest of the broken trendline this AM. This does not help the bulls case.

View attachment 6969

 

[Steadygain]

I's a holdn' Bossman

I's a holdn'

 

[Uptrend]

My system posted a change at the close yesterday. Sell F, Buy C, S, I. Not sure why it waited so long. It is what it is. I am still evaluating the details. The market is way overbought, but must be ready to move higher.

 

[Steadygain]

My system posted a change at the close yesterday. Sell F, Buy C, S, I. Not sure why it waited so long. It is what it is. I am still evaluating the details.

Please do me a favor..... DON'T F*** IT UP !!!

Uptrend, your System probably does not need any tweaking.... and no system is going to pinpoint every Buy - Sell especially when you consider we only have 1 Buy and 1 Sell per month.

ANYWAY --- THANKS !!! I'm buying ... S

 

[Uptrend]

There is no double top - that possibility has been taken out.

IMO, a rapid and huge short squeeze could develop, as the market is gaining strength and momentum.

A minimum target now could be the 61.8% fibonacci off the SPX cash market 1997 highs: 1575-666 = 909 *0.618 = 562+666 = 1228

That level is 12% up from todays close. Sidelines money could push the level even higher.

As long as the Fed does not raise rates, the US dollar will probably suffer. Dollar index could go to 70 or below.

Oil now looks like $86 or higher, perhaps even $100.

The Fed must try and control bond yields to keep bond prices low. Higher yields attract investors to finance our huge debt.

So, we might have a situation where bonds prices and equities will move up at the same time. IMO, the Fed has no intention of tweaking monetary policy until sometime next year.

Some have suggested that SPX could hit could 1400 by years end.

This is Birchtree's year to shine. He is the Big winner, and those who followed him. Next year is a different story.

 

[Steadygain]

This is Birchtree's year to shine.

He is the Big winner, and those who followed him.

Yep !!!

See -- he's not as dumb as he looks

And remember all the taughting --- about Baa Baaa his sheep going down the cliff....

Well everyone of them were out to SKY DIVE ---- and no one knows the SKY better than Birch !!!

 

[JTH]

Next year is a different story.

God knows I love Birch, but Buy & Hold has NOT RECOVERED.

 

[Birchtree]

The secrete to buy and hold is to DCA when on the bottom - dump those mighty dollars down the well and accumulate shares on the cheap. My tugboat is already back. Any chance the bulls take the day away from the bears - that would be a nice surprise.

 

[Uptrend]

Today would hve been a better entry point for those on the sidelines. Looks like a wave 4 down of a 5 wave advance. 1080 or thereabouts needs to hold or we have a blow-off top. I think the market will hold, with more upside coming. There should be a pause at 1107, and then to 1121 and then 1133.

 

[kar_crazy]

thanks for post U T like your info

 

[Uptrend]

My system may have bought into a trap. We shall see next week. If SPX 1079 is taken out, get out. Breakdown would be 1079, then 1067, then the 1040 area.

If the dollar moves lower and oil moves higher, the market should move higher. Target would be 1133 or so by November 1. Lets see what happens.

 

[Uptrend]

A case for the Bulls. Look at volume by price. Little resistance.

View attachment 6996

 

[JamesE]

My tugboat is already back.

So, are you out of the market right now big guy?

 

[nnuut]

So, are you out of the market right now big guy?

:laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh: You must not know our friend Birchtree very well?
Welcome to the Message Board!

 

[JamesE]

:laugh::laugh: You must not know our friend Birchtree very well?
Welcome to the Message Board!

Actually, I'm a professional lurker... for about 2 1/2 years now. When Birch talks about moving the tugboat, people listen.

 

[grandma]

Actually, I'm a professional lurker... for about 2 1/2 years now. When Birch talks about moving the tugboat, people listen.

My impression is the Tugboat is back for reloading, not for dumping !

 

[Steadygain]

Actually, I'm a professional lurker... for about 2 1/2 years now. When Birch talks about moving the tugboat, people listen.

Well --- we are all honored to have you make yourself known.


When Birch talks -- we all listen --- that's why he's 'My Birch'

Most certainly One of a Kind

 

[Steadygain]

Whoa --- your 50/50 Split with S/I was an excellent move !!


Good Job -- Uptrend

 

[Uptrend]

Thanks Steady: I expect more downside to the US dollar, so weighted 50% to I.

Today the system has posted a buy for F. No other changes.

I looked a little more closely at the technicals last night, and it appears the SPX has about 60 points of upside potential from where it is now, before major downtrend resistance is hit. The market is consolidating at the present, and appears to want to make a run for 1107, a major pivot point. Yesterday 1100 was touched and that was IMO a physiological barrier. To continue higher the market must get above 1107, so it can act as support. Then clear sailing until about 1133.