Uptrend's Account Talk

[Uptrend]

Besides the SPX chart situation today in the last post, I notice the the US dollar is again in freefall mode this AM. The weak dollar is supporting the markets bigtime.

 

[Uptrend]

The economic report to watch tomorrow is retail sales for August. Seems like the big kahuna.

Market expects: 2.0%, prior is -0.1% for June. Market will jump if the number comes in near or greater than 2%. A surge from gasoline and autos in cash for clunkers program is expected to boost the numbers.

 

[Uptrend]

I will wait until next trading system cycle to get in market. That means, coming off a resistance point. A development is happening in the last hour that leads me to believe my system may sell at the close today. Still trying to get on cycle with my system.

 

[fedgolfer]

love the $Tran chart that Tom posted on market comments.... that and the QQQQ's have been leading indicators in this bull move. It clearly depicts a breakout. S&P to follow. LOVE IT!!!!

 

[Steadygain]

Um not to sound disbelieving or anything, but how are we suppose to know if your system works if you don't follow its moves and instead go with your gut?

Thanks for your keen insights and being the accountability officer!

I meant no offense and only made that post after reading the one above. Actually it stuck me kind of funny because I'm in the exact same boat :embarrest: and needing something to urge me out of safety.

My trading system is fairly new, and I have made some adjustments for better performance. So far I have backtested the S fund with the following results

2008 +15.25%
2009 + 49.24% (so far)

Based on this I will use the S Fund

I will IFT today to get onto my trading system, which is still in buy mode. Happy trading.

Uptrend,
The system I most adhered to and was convinced could not be beaten is now at 2.9%; the next system that sounded incredibly detailed and strong (Fred's) is 9.7% and Rev Shark is at 3.35%.

I will always believe the B&H strategy is one of the worst mindless things anyone could fall into and if you compare a B&H return to 'good players' - we still have them beat by a landslide.

I will wait until next trading system cycle to get in market.

I'm going with your system because I honestly believe you know what you're doing.

The 2 people I most turn to for 'Good Information' that I consider incredibly SMART - (logical ) TSP Planners are you and Tom. Then I usually weighed in on Corepuncher and 350z.

So I'm not trying to give you a hard time at all - because everyone of us (You, Tom, Corepuncher, 350z, and me) is in the exact same boat. Our 'Logic' is so tied to our 'emotions' that we've lost out big time and deep down I bet everyone of us is desperately wanting your system to bat 100%.

If I lose - I promise I won't blame you; but if I win then my sincerest thanks.

 

[Uptrend]

Thanks Steady!

First, as a disclaimer this is my experimental system under development. Investing is a long term project. I am not making any recommendation for anyone to buy or sell. Investing carries inherent risks, and each person should seek competent professional advice. While developing, I stayed in G, until I was sure the risk/reward would be in my favor when trading.

So, I am stuck in G, waiting for the next cycle. The SPX should top out between 1054-1060 area before reversing. I am looking at 1016 -1018 gap that is just above the important 1013 as the stop. This would be in the neighborhood of a 40-45 point reversal, before marching upward.

There was no definate sell signal at todays close

 

[SteveTSP]

Uptrend,
Thanks for sharing your system's recommendations with the message board. I am sure someone will misread your thoughts and decisions even if you stated warnings everyday. However, your input to the message board in my opinion can not be measured and your decision to post your newly developed system positions and recommendations is awesome. Investing for me is a learing experience and your contributions continue to exceed my expectations ten fold. Thanks for stepping out and taking risk in this public forum with sharing your thoughts and actions!
Steve

 

[Uptrend]

Indecision has appeared in the market today, even with the good retail sales numbers. IMO the too far too fast principle is in play. The SPX is slamming into overhead resistance. The US dollar is taking a little bounce, but cannot clear the 5 ema in the daily timeframe. Bond prices are down a little, while gold is up a little, but not confirming the $1000 oz breakout. The VIX is trying to regain the important 24 level, but can't quite get there. This spells a sideways market going nowhere for now.

 

[Steadygain]

Uptrend,
Thanks for sharing your system's recommendations with the message board. I am sure someone will misread your thoughts and decisions even if you stated warnings everyday. However, your input to the message board in my opinion can not be measured and your decision to post your newly developed system positions and recommendations is awesome. Investing for me is a learing experience and your contributions continue to exceed my expectations ten fold. Thanks for stepping out and taking risk in this public forum with sharing your thoughts and actions!
Steve

WOW !!! What an incredible post !

Boy talk about 'good energy'

First, as a disclaimer this is my experimental system under development.

From my perspective he's a genius that studies and knows the vast array of all features influencing the Markets.

I say - jump in before he goofs it up trying to improve it. My gosh his system in S Fund is already over 50% this year and over 15% last year.

Last BUY a few days prior has impressive gains.

I am not making any recommendation for anyone to buy or sell.

No one appreciates that more than me. I'm tired of hearing the opinions... probabilities...analysis...and everything else (mainly from within ... but also shows, various financial sites...and so many here) After awhile you get lost in information overload with thousands of conflicting arguments. In the absense of a super qualified 'gifted cat' I have no other choice but to abandon myself to a system - a system that takes out the human logic and emotion and simply lets me float to greater riches.

You can use this as a 'testimonial' to push the finished product.

 

[kar_crazy]

watz up U T i am not a ford fan but i love this cobra todAYS tech kicks bass i love hot rods no matter what flaver true gear head thanks for video

 

[Uptrend]

My system has posted a sell today for C, S, I (for IFT to safe harbor of G or F fund tomorrow). This is a soft sell at this point but should confirm into a hard sell tomorrow or Thursday. At any rate bearish divergences and sufficient model parameters have lined up for a sell signal.

SPX initial downside target is still to the 1016 area to fill gap between 1016-1018. Chart patterns indicate this area is probable, probably with a wavy decline (lower highs and lower lows). Math: From todays high at 1056 - 991 (last significant momentum low) = 65 points x 61.8% fibonacci retracement = 40 points, so 1056 - 40 = 1016

 

[Show-me]

Thanks Uptrend. I enjoy your posts.

 

[Steadygain]

Wow - a million thanks my good friend

This is so much better than taxing my brain and getting wrapped up in fear and emotional turmoil.


Will sell Today

 

[Uptrend]

Today was a little bit of fireworks. The big upmove had upward gaps on a variety of charts with long white candles, and high volume, which can be interpreted as exhaustion. It's like a rocket shooting up and then the fuel runs out. So if most of the buyers buy in, and few reamin on the sidelines, then a reversal will start.

There seems to be such a bullish stampede lately, with bulls tripping over themselves. Some TSP participants trade like this is a giant casino. Be careful.

Tom was talking about fibonacci numbers, but the more important relationship is the retracement of the difference from the previous high of SPX 1576 and the 666 low where 38.2% retraced comes in at 1013, 50% at 1121 and 61.8% at 1228. Bear countertrend rallies have histories of retracing about 50% so that puts 1121 in play as a topside target, but I see some technicians believe this rally may go as high as 1179 before topping out.

I am waiting for the next buy signal after some anticipated weakness.

 

[Uptrend]

A bearish evening star pattern has formed on the 15 minute charts and gravestone doji on the daily chart. These are reversal patterns and candlesticks. I don't expect heavy selling until next week, but perhaps some drifting lower.

 

[Steadygain]

Thanks Uptrend -- much appreciated !!

I'll carry on in the 'Soft Sell' mode

 

[Uptrend]

The VIX is looking rather bullish this AM. It has passed the critical 24 level, which should push the market lower. Currently 24.24

Some say the upward gaps we saw on quite a few individual stock charts on Wednesday were runaway gaps. According to John Murphy in his book "Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets" (a very good book by the way) there are three kinds of gaps: breakaway, runaway and exhaustion gaps. Runaway gaps occur in the middle of an uptrend with moderate volume. They are sometimes called measuring gaps because you can measure the target objective, being roughly halfway. That would mean the recent bullish run is only half over, which doesn't seem very plausable. Further, most of the gaps on Wednesday were on heavy volume, not moderate volume. The exhaustion gap occurs near the end of a trend under heavy volume. Some say the market has too much liquidity for these to occur at this time. But does it? Yesterday, selling volume exceeded buying volume and it looks that way today.

http://books.google.com/books?id=5z...esult&ct=result&resnum=1#v=onepage&q=&f=false

 

[sdouglas3]

The VIX is looking rather bullish this AM. It has passed the critical 24 level, which should push the market lower. Currently 24.24

Some say the upward gaps we saw on quite a few individual stock charts on Wednesday were runaway gaps. According to John Murphy in his book "Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets" (a very good book by the way) there are three kinds of gaps: breakaway, runaway and exhaustion gaps. Runaway gaps occur in the middle of an uptrend with moderate volume. They are sometimes called measuring gaps because you can measure the target objective, being roughly halfway. That would mean the recent bullish run is only half over, which doesn't seem very plausable. Further, most of the gaps on Wednesday were on heavy volume, not moderate volume. The exhaustion gap occurs near the end of a trend under heavy volume. Some say the market has too much liquidity for these to occur at this time. But does it? Yesterday, selling volume exceeded buying volume and it looks that way today.

http://books.google.com/books?id=5z...esult&ct=result&resnum=1#v=onepage&q=&f=false

What person or which company is responsible for throwing down the guantlet for buys or sells? My thoughts are it is Goldman Sacks these days. Reason I ask is several years ago I read that there is one person or firm on Wallstreet that everyone watchs and when this person starts to buy/sell then it triggers all the other firms to do the same. I want to say it was an article that came from Stocks & Commodities magazine. I will google the article and see if I can find it.

Steve

 

[fedgolfer]

What person or which company is responsible for throwing down the guantlet for buys or sells? My thoughts are it is Goldman Sacks these days. Reason I ask is several years ago I read that there is one person or firm on Wallstreet that everyone watchs and when this person starts to buy/sell then it triggers all the other firms to do the same. I want to say it was an article that came from Stocks & Commodities magazine. I will google the article and see if I can find it.

Steve

flag, breakout, penant, breakout, consildation, breakout, flag... etc.

anyone see the good chance of a breakout of the two day penant of the s&p within an hour after the IFT deadline? SDouglas3, good chance Blankfein nods "go" inside the trading huddle around then.

 

[Uptrend]

sdouglas3
The theory goes that Goldman Sachs is acting as proxy for the governments plunge protection team (PPT), which operates somewhere on the GS premises and that they try and hold the market up and stabilize with various buy and sell orders and manipulations of the indices.

Most agree however, that the market is just too big for one firm to push it around. It's pretty hard to fight Goliath. Here is some background on the conspiracy theory:

http://www.pluggedinfinance.com/2009/07/is-plunge-protection-team-manipulating.html