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Or you can now use TapaTalk again!Uptrend's Account Talk
- Thread starter Uptrend
- Start date
Uptrend
Well-known member
Wow! What an open. Spx falls to 980 then bounces up. If this bounce up was on heavy volume I would say get in the market. But, it was on very weak volume. So, during OPEX, Whipsaw Wednesday is living up to it's name. This is the third hit of the 980 area (the one on Monday was slightly below). Usually the #4 hit is the failure.
I have been watching the VIX. Depending on how you draw the upper boundary of the 10 month bullish falling wedge, will determine the breakout area. As the VIX rises, the market falls. By excluding the upper candlestick tails in November 2008, my calculations show the VIX will breakout at 27.30. We were above that level near the open, but have dropped below at this time @ 27.07. However, the VIX has been rising the last few days, and putting in higher highs and higher lows, so a breakout is coming very soon. I will post a chart tonight.
Steadygain
TSP Elite
Uptrend,
I think it's something 'deep' we have a natural tendency towards.
Many regard Coolhand that way - but I lean towards your input and value your insight - yet I don't know why.
Volatility is bound to prevail during this period of history and I believe the Markets will reflect this.
I'll probably go to safety soon because in my thinking the upswing needs to come down.
Uptrend
Well-known member
Not much has changed for the charts technical picture. I am still a bear, and I will be a bear until volume proves otherwise. The spx has a H & S topping pattern on the charts, and as long as the markets stay below 1013 it is still in play. We are also in backtest of a broken trendline to 1005 (I think this may hold). Yesterday the market shot up mostly because the US dollar fell hard and commodities are weighted heavy in the indexes. Today the dollar is mostly flat.
So few are buying appliances, as Sears fell hard today. A friend of mine has a video and appliance repair business and he is doing great. It's the lets fix what we have mentality. Cash for clunkers is ending the gov says - no more free money. Initial unemployment claims rise. Does this look like recovery to you?
fedgolfer
Well-known member
Uptrend, love your thread. A couple threads ago you said something to the effect of "once the stimulus wears off in a month or two"... there are so many parts of ARRA that haven't even hit the street or even disbursed... in my job I distribute/monitor ARRA funds, we have only obligated 20% of it, NONE of it has been drawn down and disbursed on the receiving end. So for several Agencies, their stimulus isn't even baked in the cake. And regarding "until volume proves otherwise", what are you looking for in volume? Overleveraged institutions were forced to delever on the way down in huge volume creating a price panic in equities, that same volume will not can't be replicated on the way up... well, Goldman may be the exception
Just wondering and offering some countering opinions. Thanks!
JTH
Well-known member
From my perspective all the good news is baked in and there isn't much left to push this market higher. Did you notice we haven't broken through the 38.2 Fib from Oct 07's peak? Perhaps the rest of the year will be great for day traders, but for us TSPers I'm bearish.
As always, thanks for the "straight to the point" TA, as of late I haven't spent much time watching these markets, so it's nice for me to be able to drop in and catch the cliff notes.
Uptrend
Well-known member
The market is insane until proved otherwise. When will the rubber band break? The bears are taking a beating. For those on the long side, may the force be with you.
Fedgolfer: Here is the weekly chart on spx:
View attachment 6696
You can see the volume has been steeply dropping for the last 3 weeks after rising during July. Still no bearish cross on the MACD however in the weekly timeframe.
View attachment 6697
Here is the bullish falling wedge on the VIX in the weekly timeframe. The breakout level is about 28.39. The market has retraced to 24.57 this morning. You can see that there are divergences on the MACD histogram and RSI, where I have drawn lines. The MACD is trying to get a bullish touch. If this chart does not scare the bulls, I don't know what will. Bullish falling wedges break out to the upside a majority of the time.
Now the next real overhead resistance is about spx 1041. May the force be with you traders. I am in watch mode.
Uptrend
Well-known member
I am reviewing the charts and spx has made it above the entire bear market 38.2% fionacci at spx 1013. Next is the 50% fibonacci, coming in at 1121. Math goes like this: (1576-666 *.382) = 348 + 666 = 1014 (rounded). The same type of math for a 50% fibonacci retracement of the enitre bear market works out to be spx 1121. Somewhere between 1014 and 1121 seems to be the upside target. The US dollar looks to be turning bullish. This will drive commodities and the market down. But first, I am thinking a last of the month and early September upside hurahh.
We have an ascending wedge in play on the spx, which should break down, but may not. Too much short term green shoot pop, but should fade with a stronger dollar, dubious financial health and the market over valued in comparison to fundamentals. So some possible market paths for consideration. Scenario #1. Market retraces and stops at either 1021, 1012-1014 fibonacci area, or 1000 tomorrow or Friday. Market jumps next week or two for upside target towards 1121. Scenario # 2 Market rallies now towards spx 1121. It has been moving sideways for a few days with narrow candlestick bodies. This is foreshadowing of a market release soon. Scenario # 3 Upside momentum is over. Markets heads south towards 800 or lower. Bear is back.
I have not decided whether I will play the last pop or not. I might play, especially if we fall a little first.
Uptrend
Well-known member
SPX 1022 resistance area has been broke this AM. Next stop point of interest is 1013. That is my guess where the market is going today, and I may close some of my short short positions there (like TZA), if it holds up.
Still expecting one more push higher to complete this countertrend rally over the last 5 months. in a bear market ABC pattern. The big C downleg is still to come. The only thing that will change the short term pop up first outlook is if the market breaks below about spx 985. Then the B wave has been completed for sure and the C wave would be underway.
fedgolfer
Well-known member
UT,
Seeing the same thing... could be putting the head in on a H&S or maybe a double top. Although, I think the big support line will be bought up by the big boys though from the March and July low/support points. I did an early IFT to stocks today but may cancel though if it doesn't pull back enough or if the VIX doesn't go above the 50 dma (may be tomorrow instead of today)... glad to see i'm thinking in-line with someone smarter than me... at least in the short term!
Thanks!
Uptrend
Well-known member
Fedgolfer: Here is what I see on the VIX The daily timeframe has a was to go to break out of the bullish falling wedge. Probably won't happen right away. On the hourly timeframe I see the 20 EMA still below the 50 EMA and a bearish divergence on the MACD histogram bars even though the candlesticks are moving higher this morning. There may be a slight divergence on the RSI as well, but is inconclusive.
SPX filled a gap at 1016.36 on the hourly timeframe, fell below the 50 EMA, but is regaining with a hammer candlestick right now. MACD is still positive, with no divergence in place. RSI is making a turn up off 33. So it looks like the decline may have stalled for now.
So it looks like a little more life might be in the market; ie bearish divergence on VIX, 20 EMA below 50 EMA and SPX MACD ok. Not falling apart yet. I am thinking another run, but should test 1013 today or tomorrow. If 1013 does not hold we have an important resistance line coming in just over 1000. Good luck. I am thinking about going in.
fedgolfer
Well-known member
Yeah, at this point (pre-IFT), even if we don't close further red today, there's a good chance if there more selling tomorrow AM, tomorrow could finish with a bullish tail and above today's close. Too much underlying strength to get too cute and perfect a buy.
Uptrend
Well-known member
Went 25% c 25% S I figure A) Fund manager market rebalcnce market manipulation at end and start of month, B) spx 1013 and 1000 resistance that has not been tested and provides good support, C) Green shoot effect still in play.
If those resistance lines break, I will get out. If market heats up, I will go in 100%
sdouglas3
Member
Is it to risky to think about entering this market for the next push up? Money managers are fixing to come back from vacations and will need to buy. I think there wil be a sell off. But, I think the push up will be first. JMO of course.
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