Uptrend's Account Talk

Here is an observation about the electronic information age and the markets, and possibly how it has made trading more elusive. Noting the recent head and shoulders pattern on the charts of the dow & spx; if everyone sees the same thing and starts talking about it, will it happen?

"Again, I agree that conditions have gotten more bearish and maybe this is just semantics, but if everyone sees the same pattern on the charts, the market is not going to act the way they might expect.
Therefore, I cannot join the crowd of people from literally every corner of Wall Street and financial media yelling "head-and-shoulders." I do see lower prices ahead, but capturing some of those bearish profits may require different tactics."

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB124702532283910139.html#mod=BOL_hpp_dc

Anyway IMO the last little bull fling starts tomorrow before a correction. (I am beating myself up that I missed the entry point by 2 trading days because I mis-judged the neckline as described by squalebear in the article below). How do I know? I don't for sure, but the 15 minute and 60 minute spx charts show the breakout of a falling wedge pattern late in the day on Wednesday. Also bull cross on MACD and stochastics cycling up. The pattern measures to spx 930. The 20 sma is coming in at 913 and so the rally could stall there.

But on the other hand the rally could take off and go to spx 960 or even 1000 as a last little trap. Just too much bearish sentiment. CNBC could go nuts reporting how the bulls are back. If this case one would throw out the head and shoulders pattern and replace with a double top (M) pattern with the right side of the M equal or going a little higher than the left peak. This pattern is very possible and would be less expected. What could get the market up there. OPEX next week with put/call ratio currently at 1.53 (1.60 considered bullish as contrarian indicator), everybody looking for the bear, and the banks report next week with glowing results. After all they have lied before, or at least had accounting gimmicks. Just remember, all they have to do is beat expectations, even if they show a loss and the market should rally.

Moderately scared, but hanging on to the trade. Let's see what happens tomorrow, and Friday.
 
Thanks Uptrend, you're putting out some great stuff well worth the read. :)
 
Somehow we seem to trade places here and there - and now once again we did a reversal.

Oh well - will plan my next more carefully.

GL - and may we both 'be winners'


Well this time is no 'reversal' more like neck to neck


I'm still IN to WIN (not against you BTW) - but will see how it goes next week.

We're OVERDUE for the buyers to push things up and only because of the 'emotional climate' that has largely driven things up and down do I expect to take some GAINS off the Table.

GL
 
The first good upside day we get I'm prepared to pump in $50K to do my part. I'm only chasing the markets these days for the rest of the year.
 
I have been experimenting with the thinkorswim free charting software. It is a really good product. See below:
View attachment 6560
This is a 60 minute chart of the spx 500. The MACD is shown at the bottom, where you can see it is in bullish territory and made a bullish cross near the start of last Thursday. A wedge is forming on the chart that can break either way. However the MACD favors up. The Fib's are shown from the last high, so the probable retracement is to the 61.8% coming in about 907

What I am guessing happens this week is that some big tech and banks report and they beat estimates. The market rallies to at least spx 907. This does create a lower high, but in my view is too low to really make a 2nd right shoulder that matches the left side of the last 2 month H & S pattern. So, there is a high risk of breakdwon after this level is attained, and if this happens it confirms the downtrend. We have not closed below spx 879 on a daily basis, so the H & S is not taken out yet. Until the neckline is taken out on one day, and stays below the next day the H & S pattern is not complete and the downtrend is not confirmed. This should be an exciting week!
 
I have been experimenting with the thinkorswim free charting software. It is a really good product. See below:
View attachment 6560
This is a 60 minute chart of the spx 500. The MACD is shown at the bottom, where you can see it is in bullish territory and made a bullish cross near the start of last Thursday. A wedge is forming on the chart that can break either way. However the MACD favors up. The Fib's are shown from the last high, so the probable retracement is to the 61.8% coming in about 907

What I am guessing happens this week is that some big tech and banks report and they beat estimates. The market rallies to at least spx 907. This does create a lower high, but in my view is too low to really make a 2nd right shoulder that matches the left side of the last 2 month H & S pattern. So, there is a high risk of breakdwon after this level is attained, and if this happens it confirms the downtrend. We have not closed below spx 879 on a daily basis, so the H & S is not taken out yet. Until the neckline is taken out on one day, and stays below the next day the H & S pattern is not complete and the downtrend is not confirmed. This should be an exciting week!

Uptrend,

Thanks for the updated analysis. Btw does the think or swim free charting software give you the trend lines and suggest the probable retracement to the 61.8%, or do insert your own indicators. Irrespective of the answer, it is an excellent way to double check the potential market expectations. Tia.
 
That's some good TA Uptrend.

Goldman reports on Tuesday I believe (don't remember if it's before or after the bell). Hmmm... I wouldn't bet against them knocking the estimates out of the park. Plus this is opex so, time for some quicker money making for wall street.
Look at the dollar -- with the bollinger bands... market very quiet right now... wants to break out, no? question is which way? It hasn't been quiet very long... so, a fake might be in order.

The .gov is kinda soft on the second stimulus idea right now after testing the waters... maybe the dollar will make a fake down on the big pop and then make a larger, steadier climb back up intermediate term.
If 350z were hangin out here, maybe he could throw in some TA on the bond situation. I keep hearing about everyone getting "scared" back into treasuries.

The oil play may be done for a little while... the boys probably knew it was the only game to give them double digit returns in the short term to make up for a bit of their losses elsewhere. The oil/stock market relationship of the past few months may be coming apart.

How does this help for TSP? It really doesn't. Kinda got a little analysis paralysis. I was thinking we might have a 3-4 day play this month. We might just have a buy the rumor huge day, then a sell the news the next. Oh well, maybe I will just wait until I see something really obvious or obviously stupid to jump into.

Thanks again for the technical analysis...
 
Here is the front page to thinkorswim, (TOS) where you can go and download your own cool charting software.
https://www.thinkorswim.com/tos/sui...23455:Sllypko-JyIAACbGRCAAAAAA:20090712052038

This is the program made the chart I will show in a moment. I understand this software has been bought by Ameritrade, but is still free at this time. TOS is by far the best free charting software that I have found on the net. One can view the 15 minute and hourly charts (as well as other timeframes) whcih are very valuable for making individual buy/sell stock decisions, and well as letting the user add all kinds of tools and studies. Stockcharts will only allow the use of daily charts on their free site vs intraday.

Now about the US dollar. Will it rise or fall? The USD is very related to the stock market because of asset allocation. As the USD drops, the market rises, and when it rises the market drops. Which way is it going? See chart of UUP which tracks the USD:
View attachment 6562
This is the weekly timeframe and the dollar has found support and is trading sideways. You can see the descending channel the UUP has been in since February. The MACD is still below the indicator line, which is bearish and still below the 0 line which shows weakness. The MACD may have started to flatten, but has made no atempt to turn up. So, I think US dollar may go lower, and perhaps put in a double bottom, matching the lows we see in the summer of 2008, before turning up.

This means to me that the markets might still turn up in the shortterm, as there is almost a knee jerk reaction with the dollar. Right now the mnarket is at a risky juncture, because the spx for example is flirting with falling below the 200 sma, and a H&S neckline that is not taken out yet. If tech and the banks have "blow your socks off" reports, then we shall see a big rally, and the H&S could be taken out if spx 956 is topped. Oil has also found support at 59 and could bounce this week back to the 65 area. Plus OEX week squeezing folks betting the market will go down. IMO all adds up to a possible big bounce. If the provious high of spx 956 is topped, a double top M pattern will be in play for a reversal later this summer. IMO this week will be pivotal, as we should find out the market direction. Then we can plan better trades. Good luck!
 
Gentlemen:
Time to reload and hunt for more bear again tomorrow!


Here is the spx price action today on the 60 minute chart. You can see the market broke the wedge to the upside and came up to a 50% FIB retracement. You can see we came off a nice double 'W" bottom. Nice big move. MACD is now above the 0 line in an area of strength. Because the market closed at the high for the day, the move is not over yet. The last candlestick on the 15 minute chart today is a hammer, and that is bullish. We will need to see if we stall at the 907 level tomorrow, or can get above it. I will be shaping up a better exit strategy tonight. Good luck to all!
View attachment 6563
 
We have a head and shoulders pattern in play on the spx and other indices charts. We are froming a 2nd right shoulder at this time on the spx. If the pattern stops with a lower high, it should reverse. The neckline is at 879. Further, 956 -879 = 77 points and 879 (the neckline) - 77 = 802 spx target. This pattern is in force unless the 956 hgih is surpassed. In that case we would have a double top M pattern. I have no idea which one will occur.

Today we have a breakout of a falling wedge pattern on the banking index (BKX). Also, oil has found support @ $59 trendline and may bounce into the low 60's. These factors will lead to the advance continuing for a few trading sessions. There could be some consolidation for a day or two. On the flip side we have the 20 sma falling below the 50 sma on many of the charts recently, and this is bearish.

This is a scary rally. IMO, might not be a good time to enter, as the levels get extended.

Have you noticed that the anticipation of a earnings level has more effect on the market than the result? Whith that premise in mind, I am thinking to exit the market on Thursday, because Google reports after the bell and it is supposed to beat estimates. Also, I believe BAC reports on Friday, and is supposed to be beat estimates.

My observations for the various funds are shown below. Godd luck!

For C Fund
SPX close @ 900.38
Resistance @ 904, 913, 931
MACD 2.2 (stronger)
RSI 82 (overbought)

For S fund
RUT close @ 492.64
Resistance, gap windows @ 495.82, 513.21
MACD 0.8
RSI 76.7 (overbought)

For I fund
EFA close @ 44.82
Resistance, gap window @ 45.69
MACD 0.04 (weaker)
RSI 71.5

For F fund
TNX close @ 33.46
Resistance @ 33.49
MACD -0.36 (below 0 line is weak)
RSI 57.6
 
This is a scary rally. IMO, might not be a good time to enter, as the levels get extended.

It feels like gambling with little solid TA to base one's trades on. Contrarian thinking in this market is also dangerous. Yesterday's rally came without a buy signal from my service, which is another of many warning signs to me. :worried:
 
I'm mighty nervous myself and am planning my exit strategy as I sip my coffee. Only question is take it all out or average out.
 
Roll over IFT's is a great idea...even if they rolled over with a max of 8 rolled over then a reset at the end of the year..
 
I'll take anything, but the CREAPS won't even consider it!!:nuts:
 
The FRTIB is just protecting us from ourselves. :rolleyes: Just think how much more we would be to the negative side if we had additional IFT's. With the limit of two the FRTIB knows that we will be in a buy and hold pattern (G) and making money hand over fist. :nuts: They have done it for the good of the membership. :sick:
 
The FRTIB is just protecting us from ourselves. :rolleyes: Just think how much more we would be to the negative side if we had additional IFT's. With the limit of two the FRTIB knows that we will be in a buy and hold pattern (G) and making money hand over fist. :nuts: They have done it for the good of the membership. :sick:

Bastards tied our hands so we can't make as much money and Barclays can continue to make thiers. :mad:

Steve
 
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