Uptrend's Account Talk

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None of the fundamentals are going to matter at this point - there is a buying panic about to take place as money goes back to work. The bull market does not have to be rational to move forward because it is a discounting mechanism and omnipotent in nature.
 
Uptrend said:
Time to take short positions IMO. There are many technical reasons the market is toppy. For example the put/call ratio is too bullish, and this is a good contrarian indicator. When the market and public understands that the stress tests mean nothing, then the next shoe will drop. IMO we test spx 848, then s[x 800-810, then spx 780 and then perhaps spx 745. This should develop within 2-3 weeks. Taking out the March lows of spx 666 is still on the table.
Click to expand...

In case you missed this...

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=104578

;)
 
The week ahead:
View attachment 6199

In the chart I show some previous rollovers and that the volume declines each time. Notice also that these rollovers occur in groups of two's This is the M pattern, and this pattern is always bearish. On volume, notice that we are still in a bear market, because the overall volume is still increasing.

IMO a correction is in order. I am not sure anyone knows how deep it will be, but spx 800 is a good target for now. Currently, spx is slamming into major resistance where the horizontal line is located.
 
Thanks...Coolhand...since I missed the upswing by one day, I didn't get in at all for the recent upswing. I'm in G currently; so will wait for another dip before moving into C. Appreciate the Sentinel website. Interesting.
 
NYT: FEDS MAY CONVERT BANK BAILOUTS TO EQUITY SHARE...

Back door to nationalization? Government could become largest shareholder in several banks... Developing...

FT: Feds to put conditions on loan repayments...

http://www.drudgereport.com/

http://www.drudgereport.com/

There could be a dilution theory here, where converting gov loans to common shares could drive down the stock price down due to more tradable shares. It also shows that the gov has little more money to lend, and is looking for ways to increase the equity in the banks. Seems like this could backfire.
 
Top Story Bank Stress Test Results Leaked!!!

"The Turner Radio Network has obtained "stress test" results for the top 19 Banks in the USA.

The stress tests were conducted to determine how well, if at all, the top 19 banks in the USA could withstand further or future economic hardship.

When the tests were completed, regulators within the Treasury and inside the Federal Reserve began bickering with each other as to whether or not the test results should be made public. That bickering continues to this very day.

The Turner Radio Network has obtained the stress test results. They are very bad. The most salient points from the stress tests appear below.

1) Of the top nineteen (19) banks in the nation, sixteen (16) are already technically insolvent.

2) Of the 16 banks that are already technically insolvent, not even one can withstand any disruption of cash flow at all or any further deterioration in non-paying loans.

3) If any two of the 16 insolvent banks go under, they will totally wipe out all remaining FDIC insurance funding.

4) Of the top 19 banks in the nation, the top five (5) largest banks are under capitalized so dangerously, there is serious doubt about their ability to continue as ongoing businesses.

5) Five large U.S. banks have credit exposure related to their derivatives trading that exceeds their capital, with four in particular - JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, HSBC Bank America and Citibank - taking especially large risks.

6) Bank of America`s total credit exposure to derivatives was 179 percent of its risk-based capital; Citibank`s was 278 percent; JPMorgan Chase`s, 382 percent; and HSBC America`s, 550 percent. It gets even worse: Goldman Sachs began reporting as a commercial bank, revealing an alarming total credit exposure of 1,056 percent, or more than ten times its capital!

7) Not only are there serious questions about whether or not JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs,Citibank, Wells Fargo, Sun Trust Bank, HSBC Bank USA, can continue in business, more than 1,800 regional and smaller institutions are at risk of failure despite government bailouts!

The debt crisis is much greater than the government has reported. The FDIC`s "Problem List" of troubled banks includes 252 institutions with assets of $159 billion. 1,816 banks and thrifts are at risk of failure, with total assets of $4.67 trillion, compared to 1,568 institutions, with $2.32 trillion in total assets in prior quarter.

Put bluntly, the entire US Banking System is in complete and total failure.

More details as they become available. . . . . . "

http://turnerradionetwork.blogspot.com/
 
Uptrend said:
Top Story Bank Stress Test Results Leaked!!!

"The Turner Radio Network has obtained "stress test" results for the top 19 Banks in the USA.

The stress tests were conducted to determine how well, if at all, the top 19 banks in the USA could withstand further or future economic hardship.

When the tests were completed, regulators within the Treasury and inside the Federal Reserve began bickering with each other as to whether or not the test results should be made public. That bickering continues to this very day.

The Turner Radio Network has obtained the stress test results. They are very bad. The most salient points from the stress tests appear below.

1) Of the top nineteen (19) banks in the nation, sixteen (16) are already technically insolvent.

2) Of the 16 banks that are already technically insolvent, not even one can withstand any disruption of cash flow at all or any further deterioration in non-paying loans.

3) If any two of the 16 insolvent banks go under, they will totally wipe out all remaining FDIC insurance funding.

4) Of the top 19 banks in the nation, the top five (5) largest banks are under capitalized so dangerously, there is serious doubt about their ability to continue as ongoing businesses.

5) Five large U.S. banks have credit exposure related to their derivatives trading that exceeds their capital, with four in particular - JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, HSBC Bank America and Citibank - taking especially large risks.

6) Bank of America`s total credit exposure to derivatives was 179 percent of its risk-based capital; Citibank`s was 278 percent; JPMorgan Chase`s, 382 percent; and HSBC America`s, 550 percent. It gets even worse: Goldman Sachs began reporting as a commercial bank, revealing an alarming total credit exposure of 1,056 percent, or more than ten times its capital!

7) Not only are there serious questions about whether or not JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs,Citibank, Wells Fargo, Sun Trust Bank, HSBC Bank USA, can continue in business, more than 1,800 regional and smaller institutions are at risk of failure despite government bailouts!

The debt crisis is much greater than the government has reported. The FDIC`s "Problem List" of troubled banks includes 252 institutions with assets of $159 billion. 1,816 banks and thrifts are at risk of failure, with total assets of $4.67 trillion, compared to 1,568 institutions, with $2.32 trillion in total assets in prior quarter.

Put bluntly, the entire US Banking System is in complete and total failure.

More details as they become available. . . . . . "

http://turnerradionetwork.blogspot.com/
Click to expand...

and the govt will say it's better than expected and the market will cheer..:(
 
NASA, I think part of the reaction is simply an overbought market condition and a reversal from optionsX week. Big players drive certian stocks that they have call options on to a strike price to be "in the money" and then short the same stock the following week. What a game!

If the market closes below spx 848 (which looks promising) then we shall see more market weakness to the spx 789 - 810 area. I am guessing the market may roller coaster this week.
 
Uptrend said:
NASA, I think part of the reaction is simply an overbought market condition and a reversal from optionsX week. Big players drive certian stocks that they have call options on to a strike price to be "in the money" and then short the same stock the following week. What a game!

If the market closes below spx 848 (which looks promising) then we shall see more market weakness to the spx 789 - 810 area. I am guessing the market may roller coaster this week.
Click to expand...

Tighten the seat belt and hang on. :blink:
 
nasa1974 said:
Still there. The mine ride was one of the first coasters I got my youngest daughter to ride and she has been hooked on coasters ever since. Here is a link to all the coasters: http://www.cedarpoint.com/public/park/rides/coasters/index.cfm
Click to expand...

Cool movie! My wife lost her thrill of coasters ever since she got stuck upside down inside of the corkscrew - right over that little restaurant there. Took over an hour to get them down as I recall.

Me ... I tend to stay away from the really big coasters - Jumbo Jet, Millenium Force, etc. And that one that sends you first forwards along the track and then backwards (one ride of that was enough for me). But I could ride the Mine Ride all day long. Mousetraps too.
 
Dr Faustus said:
Cool movie! My wife lost her thrill of coasters ever since she got stuck upside down inside of the corkscrew - right over that little restaurant there. Took over an hour to get them down as I recall.

Me ... I tend to stay away from the really big coasters - Jumbo Jet, Millenium Force, etc. And that one that sends you first forwards along the track and then backwards (one ride of that was enough for me). But I could ride the Mine Ride all day long. Mousetraps too.
Click to expand...

The Millennium Force is awsome and if I close my eyes on the Raptor I feel like I am flying in a stunt plane. But my favorite is the Gemini.
 
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