Uptrend's Account Talk

Well it appears the financials and the xlf broke to the upside out of the wedge (see my chart in my last post #579). Now this will be forming an abandoned baby candlestick pattern on the weekly which is bullish. Also if the spx can close above 859 today the market will rally, as that will be key support. Percentage-wise it looks like financials was leading this AM with HBAN up 23%, BAC up 14% and WFC up 20%.
 
Uptrend,

I always enjoy your charts and especially the conclusion you draw from them along with how they determining your TSP distribution. Keep up the good work. :D

CB
 
The market looks positive this AM, but caution is still advised. First the market has not really tested the November 2008 lows. I would like to see a test within 2-5% on a daily closing basis to convince me that the bottom is in place. That is down in the spx 750 area. I am sure it is possible for the market to rally 200 points now on the spx all the way up to the 200 sma stop, and then retrace back down. This might happen, especially if the stimulus package moves forward next week. The HOPE rally. If the market can close above spx 859 today and confirm tomorrow, then a high probability of an uptrend.

If the market closes below spx 859 today or breaks down below tomorrow (no confirmation), then beware, as the market will still be inside the trading range of the last few weeks. The financials now seem to be suggesting a new uptrend, so the rest of the market will probably now tag along. Lets find out the details of the FDIC toxic bank. Is this the HOPE rally or the TOXIC BANK rally?
 
The market is suggesting no confirmation of yesterdays uptrend, because futures are showing a close at or below spx 859. This is the critical upper end of the last few weeks sloppy trading range. If this happens, tomorrows GDP negative number will call for an emergency landing. The markets are so bad that "bad bank" rumors cause an uptick.

The technicals on charter communications (CHTR) were lined up for a bounce this AM, so I did a quick scalp. Bought 0.084 sold @ 0.010 For what it is worth, I have noticed that investors get ancy to trade on down days and if not going short, they try and trade the high risk penny type stocks. There is no value is charter, as they have 21 billion in debt, and might go bankrupt. But who cares. The trade was over in < 30 minutes for a tidy profit. But as a general rule to preserve capital, Dont Swim (Trade) Against the Flow, as you will be swept away.
 
"""FDIC toxic bank""" AKA CrappyMae!

That really stinks. The taxpayer gets the shaft again.:mad:
The banks are just waiting to unload these "worthless' assets on the taxpayer. Looks like the Fed and the banks are running their own Ponzi scheme.
 
The US dollar is telling s BIG story
Look at this chart and the source website. IMO we will probably break out in the direction of the trend. Up. And this should happen in about May-June. Will another country fail and there be a rush to buy US bonds and currency?


http://stocktiming.com/Friday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm

free%20dollarpf.png
 
The market is trending up. However:

1) spx 859 is a critical level It is not enough for the market to get above; it must confirm in the next trading session on Monday Feb 9 and close above 859 on a daily basis to confirm an uptrend.

2) Even if the market gets above 859 the 50 dma is next resistance and top of wedge are above near spx 900.

3) The NY and NA summation indexes are both still negative. The Nasdaq is the stronger of the two, but still shows more selling than buying.

4) TSP'ers get really only one shot at the morkets/month (I know we get 2 IFTs but one can be wasted going back to G if the market tanks). Why waste one on this high risk play?

Coolhand was right. The market sentiment was way to negative mid-week and the market did a little bounce here. Unless you were in yesterday it is too late now to transfer. IMO the market will probably roll in several more trading sessions. IMO the gov spending plan has way to many problems.

My trading strategy this year is to wait, and then ride up off the lows for a big gain. Bear markets retest their lows. The time period between lows has not been long enough. February seasonality is weak. If we count forward from the Nov 2008 lows about 20 weeks, puts up in mid-April Based on previous bear markets this can be a reasonable spread between the low and a re-test. First quarter negative earnings arriving in April, sustained unemployment and increasing, bailout bill that did not work, failure of GM, failure of another big bank like BAC etc will push market over the edge. I think patience is required here. At least I sleep better at night.
 
The line in the sand is spx 848 (see pink horizontal line on the chart). Above this line the market trends up, and below this line, it flounders.

View attachment 5692

Feb 9 (Monday) the market futures suggest that the spx will pull back to 855. Perfect! The 20 sma will add support at 845. So if the market goes as planned, a little pullback tomorrow and the market should go back to nuetral from overbought, and ready for a run to the 50 sma, then the upper bollinger band, then the downtreand line around 900 (actually a little above). Maximum possible gain for IFT in tomorrow and if the market closes around 855 and then hold until tops at 900 in a few days would be a little over 5% gain.

As long as the market stays above the 20 sma at around 845 the risk/reward appears in favor. The whole set-up might be a bear trap. However, the market is floating above nuetral with divergences. So, I am thinking of playing along, watching each top carefully. The S fund will be my choice, if still looks promising near the IFT deadline.
 
Going to wait in G, as I don't see the consolidation pullback so far today. Too bullish. SPX needs to go down and touch the 20 sma or near there, for a decent entry point So will be patient here on this rally. Not my dip.
 
Found this funny

Fat Theology
And God populated the earth with broccoli and cauliflower and spinach, green and yellow vegetable of all kinds, so Man and Woman would live long and healthy lives.
And Satan created McDonald's. And McDonald's brought forth the 99-cent double-cheeseburger. And Satan said to Man, "You want fries with that?"
And Man said, "Super size them." And Man gained pounds.
And God created the healthful yogurt, that woman might keep her figure that man found so fair.
And Satan brought forth chocolate. And woman gained pounds.
And God said, "Try my crispy fresh salad."
And Satan brought forth ice cream. And woman gained pounds.
And God said, "I have sent your heart healthy vegetables and olive oil with which to cook them."
And Satan brought forth chicken-fried steak so big it needed its own platter.
And Man gained pounds and his bad cholesterol went through the roof.
And God brought forth running shoes and Man resolved to lose those extra pounds.
And Satan brought forth cable TV with remote control so Man would not have to toil to change channels between ESPN and ESPN2.
And Man gained pounds.
And God said, "You're running up the score, Devil."
And God brought forth the potato, a vegetable naturally low in fat and brimming with nutrition.
And Satan peeled off the healthful skin and sliced the starchy center into chips and deep-fat fried them. And he created sour cream dip also.
And Man clutched his remote control and ate the potato chips swaddled in cholesterol.
And Satan saw and said, "It is good."
And Man went into cardiac arrest.
And God sighed and created quadruple bypass surgery.
And Satan created HMOs.

http://www.mumbaimirchi.com/jokes/jokes_medical.htm
 
Thanks for the incite and thank for the helpful comments. It amazes me how many thing I can not think of or forget when looking at the charts. It's good to see folks turning bullish, and I can only hope everyone gets some decent plays this month.

I'll proably lay low and be a bit more conservative with the TSP, but more aggressive with the ROTH IRA where I can enter & exit in real time. I may make some plays in SPY/SDS, if I can get my homework in.

Thanks again...JTH :)
 
Futures suggest that the market will stop at spx 844 today. That is below the spx 848 pivot point, where the market is weaker. So the up bias has crashed. Glad I stayed G. The financial sector is still in trouble. Banks don;t like the sec G valuation test. Big banks getting hammered. Could be buys when the smoke clears.
 
I have been following the mcclelum oscilitor, which can be used to identify overbought and oversold conditions. Extending the cycles suggests that the next low may come in 3 trading days on February 18. Here is data to yesterdays close:

http://www.mcoscillator.com/Data.html

Program shorting appears to have captured the market today. Holding G until February 18, or until I see a close below 800 spx. Patience is required here to get the good price entry point.
 
I have been following the mcclelum oscilitor, which can be used to identify overbought and oversold conditions. Extending the cycles suggests that the next low may come in 3 trading days on February 18. Here is data to yesterdays close:

http://www.mcoscillator.com/Data.html

Program shorting appears to have captured the market today. Holding G until February 18, or until I see a close below 800 spx. Patience is required here to get the good price entry point.

THANK YOU THANK YOU THANK YOU

That sounds perfect - and should give us a good 2 day lift

Well that's it for 2/09 - then we deal with 3/09
 
For TSP decisions, the market seems untradeable at this time. one day up, one day down type of thing, within a tight trading wedge. Since spx is below 848, we are in an area of market weakness. Yesterday's market recovery from spx 804 was all short covering, based on a rumor of mortgage news.

Next week is options x. I expect wild swings and possible a low forming on Wednesday +1 or -1. I expect a temporary stop at spx 804, then 789, then the 750 area. May be shifted to Thursday, because of Presidents's Day. This is based on hurst cycles and MO observationxs. This might also conincide with the stimulus passing, and all details being revealed, some of which may be greeted with distain. It don't matter what the reason, IMO the dumb $ will be bullish, based on the perceived stimulus effect, while the smart $ will be wary.
 
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