Uptrend's Account Talk

[Uptrend]

We have a temporary uptrend. IMO it goes to the 1380-1425 area on $spx. See Chart.

View attachment 3597

Today we busted through the 50 dma. Now we will have some sideways trading perhaps for a few days while we consolidate. No way I think the dwontrend is over. so my objective for this trade (wtih limited TSP moves possible) is to sell C and S somewhere in the circle on the chart. IMO when we hit the long term downtrend line we will fall below on the first attempt to get through it.

On Elliott wave theory, despite all different interpretations out there, IMO we are in wave 1 up after a ABC correction. You will notice that each part of the ABC correction has two tops. This is curious. We need to get above Feb 1385 area to possibly confirm a reversal.

This trade has taken most of March to develop, and may go on for one to two weeks yet. What I am learning with limited trading options, is that one must be patient, and look at the big pattern, price and time technicals on the charts. Otherwise, one will trade too soon and miss the next rally. Tough to take.

 

[RPM]

We have a temporary uptrend. IMO it goes to the 1380-1425 area on $spx. See Chart.

View attachment 3597

Today we busted through the 50 dma. Now we will have some sideways trading perhaps for a few days while we consolidate. No way I think the dwontrend is over. so my objective for this trade (wtih limited TSP moves possible) is to sell C and S somewhere in the circle on the chart. IMO when we hit the long term downtrend line we will fall below on the first attempt to get through it.

On Elliott wave theory, despite all different interpretations out there, IMO we are in wave 1 up after a ABC correction. You will notice that each part of the ABC correction has two tops. This is curious. We need to get above Feb 1385 area to possibly confirm a reversal.

This trade has taken most of March to develop, and may go on for one to two weeks yet. What I am learning with limited trading options, is that one must be patient, and look at the big pattern, price and time technicals on the charts. Otherwise, one will trade too soon and miss the next rally. Tough to take.

Uptrend,

The Slow Sto of the indexes are now in overbought (above 80), and as I checked the charts, every time that happened lately, there has been a sell off. I can't see the high that you pointed out in the charts get achieved in the near term. Also, another thing that baffled me is the ^TNX chart, the slow sto and MACD seem to be pointing up (i.e. F fund in the minus using Z 's approach,) which usually only happen when stocks rally.

Any take on these mixed signals? TIA

 

[Corepuncher]

Uptrend,

The Slow Sto of the indexes are now in overbought (above 80), and as I checked the charts, every time that happened lately, there has been a sell off. I can't see the high that you pointed out in the charts get achieved in the near term. Also, another thing that baffled me is the ^TNX chart, the slow sto and MACD seem to be pointing up (i.e. F fund in the minus using Z 's approach,) which usually only happen when stocks rally.

Any take on these mixed signals? TIA

I think it means nobody knows what is going on :toung:

 

[Steadygain]

No way I think the dwontrend is over. so my objective for this trade (wtih limited TSP moves possible) is to sell C and S somewhere in the circle on the chart. IMO when we hit the long term downtrend line we will fall below on the first attempt to get through it.
/quote]


Uptrend, I really appreciate your input and admire your ability to deal with the limited ITFs in such a strong way. Your assessment on the Markets is outstanding and you demonstate this very well.

 

[Uptrend]

Strategy Desk (2 IFT/Month limitation)

Current play: Rally that is fading
Available trades/month: 2
Outlook for April 2-3/4th week: Slide lower to 1225 area
Happening now: Retest of the 20dma ($spx @1320)
Anticipation: After touch of 20dma, upwave continues to 1380-1425 area. Indicators ok.

Strategy: Stay invested. If not, get invested by March 31 if under your trade limitation for March. Market in consolidation mode now. Expect blast off of $spx 1320 20dma early next week. Possible end of trade by April 3-4 at 1380 to 1425 area. Sell Trade 1 (To G). Wait while bad earnings reports start coming out; unanticipated write-downs etc that hammers the XLF, and target the next buy at much lower level late in month. This buy into stocks is Trade 2.

I would like to sell now, while the 20dma is being retested, but can't, because a buy back in early next week would use up an extra trade. Must keep a trade for the real bottom that might develop by late April. Can't take a chance of not having the buy option.

Limited trading means big picture thinking. Don't worry about the bumps. Hang On!

 

[Steadygain]

Strategy Desk (2 IFT/Month limitation)

Current play: Rally that is fading
Available trades/month: 2
Outlook for April 2-3/4th week: Slide lower to 1225 area
Happening now: Retest of the 20dma ($spx @1320)
Anticipation: After touch of 20dma, upwave continues to 1380-1425 area. Indicators ok.

Strategy: Stay invested. If not, get invested by March 31 if under your trade limitation for March. Market in consolidation mode now. Expect blast off of $spx 1320 20dma early next week. Possible end of trade by April 3-4 at 1380 to 1425 area. Sell Trade 1 (To G). Wait while bad earnings reports start coming out; unanticipated write-downs etc that hammers the XLF, and target the next buy at much lower level late in month. This buy into stocks is Trade 2.

I would like to sell now, while the 20dma is being retested, but can't, because a buy back in early next week would use up an extra trade. Must keep a trade for the real bottom that might develop by late April. Can't take a chance of not having the buy option.

Limited trading means big picture thinking. Don't worry about the bumps. Hang On!

Incredible - you're something else man :cheesy:

Much appreciated.

 

[airlift]

Uptrend,
I appreciate your views. Helps me analyze the alternatives and make rational decisions. Tia.

 

[RPM]

Strategy Desk (2 IFT/Month limitation)

Current play: Rally that is fading
Available trades/month: 2
Outlook for April 2-3/4th week: Slide lower to 1225 area
Happening now: Retest of the 20dma ($spx @1320)
Anticipation: After touch of 20dma, upwave continues to 1380-1425 area. Indicators ok.

Strategy: Stay invested. If not, get invested by March 31 if under your trade limitation for March. Market in consolidation mode now. Expect blast off of $spx 1320 20dma early next week. Possible end of trade by April 3-4 at 1380 to 1425 area. Sell Trade 1 (To G). Wait while bad earnings reports start coming out; unanticipated write-downs etc that hammers the XLF, and target the next buy at much lower level late in month. This buy into stocks is Trade 2.

I would like to sell now, while the 20dma is being retested, but can't, because a buy back in early next week would use up an extra trade. Must keep a trade for the real bottom that might develop by late April. Can't take a chance of not having the buy option.

Limited trading means big picture thinking. Don't worry about the bumps. Hang On!

Thanks very much. Did you get "the letter" too? If not, as Z said, you are still free to trade until the software changes!

Shanghai went down over 5% last night. Any impact on the rest of the world going forward? Any insight is appreciated.

 

[Uptrend]

Thanks airlift & steadygain. This morning a beautiful hammer chart candlestick is forming on the $spx. Notice the handle goes down to 1329 and now we are filling in above (currently at 1337). Makes me wonder if we will even get down to the 20dma. Get ready for a push soon.

On the international markets front, it seems the OSM and USM have been out of synch the last few days. The way I was invested (30% C 20% S & 50% I) it canceled out most of the USM loss yesterday for a overall -0.04 loss. The same scenario is setting up today.

Some business folks say that the USM and OSM are becoming more and more decoupled. That is, China, India, Europe, Asia, Brazil can trade between themselves without the US

At the Davos World Economic Summit in Januaury: "I believe the world economy has in fact largely decoupled from the U.S.," said Fred Bergsten, director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Participating in a session on the impact of the U.S. recession on emerging economies, Bergsten said "the emerging markets now account for roughly half the world economy; even if they slow down by half a percent or so, they are still going to provide substantial growth in the 6-7 percent range. Even if the industrial world drops down into the 1-2 percent range, world growth will be in the 4 percent range."

http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=40903

Besides looking at the dollar index, something else to consider when trading the I fund.

 

[Uptrend]

It is hard to stop an Elliot upwave Lets look:

View attachment 3609
For the xlf, back in Jan the market retested the 20dma before getting past the 50dma. The recent up move here in March shows that the 20 and 50 was overcome, but now a retest of the 20dma today (or close to it). This is healthy. Notice the market is also sitting on Jan support (black horizontal line).

View attachment 3610
What I am showing on the $spx is the first time the 20dma was hit in a dwontrend is that the market went back down, but the second time up. Now the first time the 50dma was hit in late Feb the market wnet back down, but this is the second time. I thought we were going to retest the 20dma, but guess not. The market refuses to give up the 50dma level.The market is also sitting on some key support. Most likely move is up!

I also put on the parabolic stop and reverse system (the dots) and you can the dots are below in a rising market. A rising tide floats all ships.

 

[Corepuncher]

It is hard to stop an Elliot upwave

It's also hard to stop a Trane

What is my point? I don't know, just thought of the commercial. Interesting stock chart, nonetheless. I think there is a financial disaster on the horizon but when will it hit?

 

[RPM]

It is hard to stop an Elliot upwave Lets look:

A rising tide floats all ships.

Absolutely great call. Right on the dot! Please let me know when to get out! Mucho thanks

 

[Uptrend]

Did you hear the Liberty Bell sold. It is now the Taco Bell

Oh yeah the Lincoln Memorial sold. It is now the Ford, Lincoln, Mercury Memorial

April Fool

 

[Uptrend]

Wow What a day!

View attachment 3649

Now it gets more tricky. To sell or not to sell. First of all we have resistance at the 1380-1390 area, and then the long term downtrend line around 1420. Plenty of whitewater ahead. And then the 200 dma above that. On the plus side we have broke out of the downward channel!

My objective for this trade is to exit either in the 1480-1490 area or after 3-5 days of uptrend. We have had two so far. Exit time could be tomorrow, depending if we get a pause day or a continued uptrend. Staying in for the next week, the 1420 area is possible, but risky. I have been burned this year already, so will probably play it safe.

 

[RPM]

Wow What a day!

View attachment 3649

Now it gets more tricky. To sell or not to sell. First of all we have resistance at the 1380-1390 area, and then the long term downtrend line around 1420. Plenty of whitewater ahead. And then the 200 dma above that. On the plus side we have broke out of the downward channel!

My objective for this trade is to exit either in the 1480-1490 area or after 3-5 days of uptrend. We have had two so far. Exit time could be tomorrow, depending if we get a pause day or a continued uptrend. Staying in for the next week, the 1420 area is possible, but risky. I have been burned this year already, so will probably play it safe.

All the charts daily/weekly look really good. Not often that they do all agree. Given the 2 IFTs/month, I might try to stay in until the weekly turns over, timing the daily is just really hard! Thanks for all your great analysis.

 

[airlift]

Uptrend,
You have your SPX 20DMA settings in the SMA (simple moving average). Try using the 20-day EMA (Exponential moving average). As I understand this, this setting takes in more "noise", and it is more sensitive, quicker. However, this will show you that the EMA(20), or thereabouts, was retested. Good charts and analysis Uptrend!

It is hard to stop an Elliot upwave Lets look:

View attachment 3609
For the xlf, back in Jan the market retested the 20dma before getting past the 50dma. The recent up move here in March shows that the 20 and 50 was overcome, but now a retest of the 20dma today (or close to it). This is healthy. Notice the market is also sitting on Jan support (black horizontal line).



View attachment 3610
What I am showing on the $spx is the first time the 20dma was hit inat a dwontrend is that the market went back down, but the second time up. Now the first time the 50dma was hit in late Feb the market wnet back down, but this is the second time. I thought we were going to retest the 20dma, but guess not. The market refuses to give up the 50dma level.The market is also sitting on some key support. Most likely move is up!

I also put on the parabolic stop and reverse system (the dots) and you can the dots are below in a rising market. A rising tide floats all ships.

 

[Uptrend]

Do we see what we want to see?

Inverted Head and Shoulders forming -like looking in a pond

View attachment 3670

OR Bear Flag forming - a little more upside, and down she goes.

View attachment 3671

One vote for the Bear Flag!

 

[Reactive1]

You are correct. I just hope people are paying attention. Anyone out should stay out. Anyone playing this short-term possibility should watch very closely and be ready to bail (that's me). This market is about ready to crash, and crash hard, unfortunately.

 

[RPM]

Uptrend:

Any thoughts on the weekly charts? They are looking really good (MACD and SLO STO), and maybe that's why the market keeps going up, regardless of the news??? TIA as always, for your great analysis.

 

[Show-me]

I'm still holding my SDS even tho I have been getting spanked.