Uptrend's Account Talk

[Steadygain]

I really appreciate your posts my friend and am wholly convinced you know your stuff. I thought about buying the C/S today but since they started out at over 1% - would like to see it come back down tomorrow and jump onboard. In light of the recent fears and uncertainties that have dominated the markets - I hope for our sakes that the profit takers bring it down tomorrow (our entry point) and then we catch the 4% rally. And to answer your question, YES you are definately crazy - crazy like a fox that is - and that's why you're at the top.

 

[Uptrend]

I was hoping today would start out on the downside to test that 1430-1435 low and then start up forming a hammer. However, that did not happen and even though we have advanced, we have a little fall back forming an upper shadow on the candlestick chart. If this does not go away by IFT time, that wold mean three candles in a row with upper shadows. I don't like upper shadows, as a lot of times downside follows. Might hold in G, until a better test of the low.

 

[RPM]

I really appreciate your posts my friend and am wholly convinced you know your stuff. I thought about buying the C/S today but since they started out at over 1% - would like to see it come back down tomorrow and jump onboard. In light of the recent fears and uncertainties that have dominated the markets - I hope for our sakes that the profit takers bring it down tomorrow (our entry point) and then we catch the 4% rally. And to answer your question, YES you are definately crazy - crazy like a fox that is - and that's why you're at the top.

Including yesterday's loss, if the market ends at the current value, you'd still be buying at lower price than Friday. I am more concerned about the last minute selling that has happened the last few days.

 

[350zCommTech]

350z See post my post #116 for link. Europe's biggest bank, HSBC will report a big loss Wednesday. Not good for I fund??

Thanks for the article.

If HSBC reports a loss between $1-2B, markets will probably ignore it and continue up. If it's $5-6B, well, it's going to suck. As for the dollar, if the markets are OK with HSBC's loss, the dollar will continue to fall or just stay flat as the Yen carry resumes. Japan has found strong support at 15000. It's due for a big bounce. I'm considering 50S/50I.

 

[Uptrend]

We are near the 1460 area. That is good, as it is halfway up Nov 9 down. So there is a chance for a continuation. 350z you have convinced me, Nikkei will bounce. So wnet 50/50 S I. I see this as a 2 day trade. Hold on.

 

[350zCommTech]

We are near the 1460 area. That is good, as it is halfway up Nov 9 down. So there is a chance for a continuation. 350z you have convinced me, Nikkei will bounce. So wnet 50/50 S I. I see this as a 2 day trade. Hold on.

I'm going 100% I fund.

Good Luck.

 

[Uptrend]

That was some rally! To far - to fast. A just because rally. In hindsight, I probably should have gone all I. Uptrend was a little worried how Europe would react today with write-off bank news. Japan is going to give I a big lift. After lookig more closely, I is in better shape, as the 20 dma is still above the 50 dma. EFA had a bullish kicking pattern today, which is highly reliable. The USM charts did not look to bad either, and both suggest a continuation.

Uptrend will probably exit the trade tomorrow. The USM indicies can only go up about 1- 1.5% more before hitting a wall. EFA may continue, but will see how Europe reacts, and how the chart pattern forming looks like. I am not sure it is worth playing with fire for another day. It is nice to make 1% on a trade, but will take less. The market is whipping wildly. Too bad the holiday was in the way preventing a better entry point on this trade. I am quite sure the market will take another unexpected and huge drop.

Perhaps that is why trading is so fun. Full of unexpected twists and turns, bumps and drops, cliffs, and rapids, and sunny mountain-tops.

 

[350zCommTech]

That was some rally! To far - to fast. A just because rally. In hindsight, I probably should have gone all I. Uptrend was a little worried how Europe would react today with write-off bank news. Japan is going to give I a big lift. After lookig more closely, I is in better shape, as the 20 dma is still above the 50 dma. EFA had a bullish kicking pattern today, which is highly reliable. The USM charts did not look to bad either, and both suggest a continuation.

Uptrend will probably exit the trade tomorrow. The USM indicies can only go up about 1- 1.5% more before hitting a wall. EFA may continue, but will see how Europe reacts, and how the chart pattern forming looks like. I am not sure it is worth playing with fire for another day. It is nice to make 1% on a trade, but will take less. The market is whipping wildly. Too bad the holiday was in the way preventing a better entry point on this trade. I am quite sure the market will take another unexpected and huge drop.

Perhaps that is why trading is so fun. Full of unexpected twists and turns, bumps and drops, cliffs, and rapids, and sunny mountain-tops.

HSBC's write down was ignored as I expected and BSC is a fat liar today. I agree with you that the USM is approaching a wall. Corrective rallies usually last 3 days, but as you mentioned, yesterday was just too big and too fast.

I'm also thinking that there is no reason to be a pig. Japan will continue the rally tonight but Europe will follow the USM tomorrow. CPI and Thursday being the day before OPEX, might allow the rally to continue.

Since PPI came in tame, what are your thoughts on CPI?

thanks and GL.

 

[Uptrend]

350Z The CPI won't do anything. It is supposed to come out at 0.3% M/M, which is what it ws in Oct (for Sept time period). Even if it came out 0.2%, I can't see how that would keep the market afloat.

I am selling the trade. Hope the USM can hang on. Upper shadows forming on the charts, which could be down hammers as the day goes along. EFA gapped up and into the 20 dma. Uptrend has been burned twice in the last two weeks, so I ask no questions, and run for the nearest fire exit.

 

[350zCommTech]

350Z The CPI won't do anything. It is supposed to come out at 0.3% M/M, which is what it ws in Oct (for Sept time period). Even if it came out 0.2%, I can't see how that would keep the market afloat.

I am selling the trade. Hope the USM can hang on. Upper shadows forming on the charts, which could be down hammers as the day goes along. EFA gapped up and into the 20 dma. Uptrend has been burned twice in the last two weeks, so I ask no questions, and run for the nearest fire exit.

I think they were just filling the gap from the open. I think it will head back up. I'll move out of the I anyway.

 

[Uptrend]

Actually the EFA gapped to 83.74, but now has retreated to 83.27 forming a black body candlestick. Not sure whether the market will reverse and go over it and ride higher forming a white body. Generally I don't like upper shadows and black body candlesticks, but with EFA anything can happen.

 

[350zCommTech]

Actually the EFA gapped to 83.74, but now has retreated to 83.27 forming a black body candlestick. Not sure whether the market will reverse and go over it and ride higher forming a white body. Generally I don't like upper shadows and black body candlesticks, but with EFA anything can happen.

I don't bother looking at the EFA. It's just an ETF that tracks the USM like everything else. I'm thinking about staying in for one more day but switching it all to the S fund. The dollar is due for a bounce.

 

[Steadygain]

Including yesterday's loss, if the market ends at the current value, you'd still be buying at lower price than Friday. I am more concerned about the last minute selling that has happened the last few days.

RPM, Thanks a million for this reply yesterday. I honestly feel it was mainly this message sinking in that convinced me to take advantage of a winning condition. Many are bailing out to safety - but I'll probably stay another day. Anyway - it looks like the gains are adding up and that is a great feeling.

 

[Uptrend]

Because the 20 dma has slipped below the 50 dma, Uptrend will hold in G until a bounce may occur. I don't see a reason to buy in today. all the charts say indecision or down. I have given up almost 5% the last 9 trading days trying to figure out the right path. No use to get beat up to bad. The move needs to have a fairly good chance for success.

 

[Cortez]

Because the 20 dma has slipped below the 50 dma, Uptrend will hold in G until a bounce may occur. I don't see a reason to buy in today. all the charts say indecision or down. I have given up almost 5% the last 9 trading days trying to figure out the right path. No use to get beat up to bad. The move needs to have a fairly good chance for success.

I agree. This market is an environment in which one should be protective of your account balance first and pursue maximum gains second.

 

[Uptrend]

Tomorrow (Nov 16) should be exciting!

Charts $SPX (C) and EFA (I) show indecision. Chart $EMW (S) shows possible uptrend. Chart AGG (F) shows uptrend, but is against the upper bollinger band. $SPX could move down tomorrow, but will meet strong support at the 1430 area.

Other data:
USD to JPY Going down, so traders are limiting risk, and some carry trades may be unwinding.

OEX put/call ratio more bearish 1.23

Nikkei down tonight, but rebounding late USM futures holding positive.
Dollar climbing slightly at 76

So.... What will I do? The contrarian indicators look good. I don't think we will get much lower right now. For charts, I would like to see a gap lower in the morning and trade in a narrow range with a little up and down, or a gap up so the opening price is fully contained within yesterdays down candlestick and trading to advance. Either of these scenarios will signal a possible reversal (for now). But if we gap up and then fall lower below yesterdays close, or gap down and then go up partly into yesterday, but less than halfway I will hold in G. I need a chart confirmation.

 

[Uptrend]

The technicals on the charts all show indecision today. And for the USM a 3 day 3 black crows pattern has fromed more or less (which is down). What really bothers me is that we have not clearly tested the 1430 area on S&P, so I do not have much confidence to dive in. The PL dot chart I am building shows a slight uptrend, but that was becasue we had a huge up day 4 trading days ago, so I don't trust it.

Starbucks is down on future growth. My favorite coffee. Not a great way to start the day. So geos the coffee....so goes the market?

 

[Uptrend]

I went ahead and did an IFT to be in the market for Monday 70/30 S I at the last minute Nov 16, because the markets were trading in a narrow range that confirmed indecision and the chart technicals showed a possible change in trend. It is sometimes hard to tell what is going on with the market direction and chart patterns, and one needs to make a guess just before IFT time.

On another subject, here is my take on Elliott wave theory as it applies to the market right now. The basic principles of waveform in a bull market is that there are 5 advancing waves and 3 declining waves for a total of 8 in a cycle. If you look at the overall big picture we have been in a bull market. See chart below.

View attachment 2587

If you start with the big uptrend in Aug 2006, you can then start counting the big swings or waves shown by circles. Wave 5 would be the Oct 31 2007 high. Then we have 3 declining waves in the last 2.5 weeks. You can see that wave 2 4 and 8 anchor the bottom of a possible new trading channel and that wave 3 and 5 outline the top of the possible channel. I am no expert, but this is a possible scenario. If so, despite the news, we should be in for an uptrend, although the new channel would be more range bound.

 

[hessian]

Hey Uptrend'
My 1st post w/ you, I wanted to say, I like jokin' around, so don't take everything I say seriously. Feel free to scold me if I say something outta line! First let me say, you seem to flip-flop more than most Dems! (just a test -NOT serious) But, IMO, this is actually a necessary trait, especially in these recent markets - we all need to be ready to flip on a dime!

OK, to business:
1. It was quite a day yesterday, and wanted to tell you my allocation as of this last Wed is also: 70%S, 30%I. I thought this was interesting! I got my last DCA in on Wed - 20% more to S, 5% went to I (I had 25%G waiting in the wings). Do I assume correctly that your hope at least, is to now maintain this allocation through Christmas season (its my hope, that I chose as it seems like a good seasonal allocation).

2. Nice analysis! I'm nowhere close to your technical level, (hence using DCA), but learning fast - but your chart analysis looks reasonable. Also, mostly I'm glad to see that you're now saying an uptrend is expected. I caught some prior dips (that I DCA'd) hoping for turnarounds then, but with your analysis now suggesting a new upward trend - well, lets just say I'm hoping your right. For me it may confirm my expectation/or at least hope, that we were NOT going to see those August lows again!!! As you know there are still folks expecting that. Wondering how they will respond now with this technical analysis? :suspicious::notrust:

3. I was learning p&F charts from - looking at those Thurs night (in his post), up until Friday 1130, for noon IFT. They helped with decision to ride it out/stay put. IMO they are helpful. Several others asked what the heck are those charts?), so said he might start a new Thread - a "P&F Analysis School" , so if interested, watch for this sometime mid-Dec (headed out now, like most of us for needed vacations)

 

[Uptrend]

Another way to look at post #140 (if you are a bear and may possibly have more merit because it fits the big swings theme on the chart when you consider scaling) is that the Oct 31 2007 high is the 5th wave of the advance, and the recent low in Now to 1438 area (#8 circle) would be only #1 in a decline (so should be the #6 circle). Remember in Elliott wave theory you have a 3 step consolidation after a 5 step advence for a total of 8 swings in a sequence. It then repeats. You can also break the patern down to finer scales. So following this logic, we would now rebound as step #2, but will then have a lower low step below 1438 before we advance again Yuk!!

But either way you look at it, we are now due for an advance. Trust theory!