Uptrend's Account Talk

[Steadygain]

This is the worst fall I've taken this year. I was out for the February fall. It was on the charts. The warning signs were there for this November fall, but there was no time to react. I knew a reversal was coming soon. I assumed we had one more day. I ignored my own message about not taking too much gain at a time. I was greedy. The situation between the falling dollar and inflation risk spells no more rate cuts in all probability, and this became a sobering reality.

Still way in the green for the year. Getting on the elevator for more.

This past week was also my worse fall this year. It is somewhat humbling when we make it known we've never lost in any quarter and then get a loss. Anyway, I think you're completely wrong about being greedy and not taking too much gain. The overwhelming odds are - you're heart was telling you we are long over due for a minimum 2 day gain. In the past few months often a major big gaining day - is followed by a smaller. You and I both made our decision - based on our gut, which was telling us: "Don't be an idiot and get out too early". I don't think greed was behind our fall, but in hind sight you can't go wrong.

 

[Uptrend]

Thanks Steadygain. Sometimes traders instinct gets in the way of facts. Traders instinct was just schooled.

Now for the week ahead, tech will lead the way. But the mad dog of financials just will not give up. It may drag down the S&P early in the week, and could drag the whole market down. How many more secrets are in the closets of the other big financial giants?

If there is another big downward reaction, my stop loss will kick in. If the $EMW is drug below the 50 dma or EFA below the 20 dma by IFT on Monday, or looks like it will get there, uptrend will bail to G. The negative downtrend must stabilize, even if a bit of a bounce is missed.

 

[FogSailing]

Hi Uptrend:

I think we're all getting tired of hearing how great the market is...and is going to be...only to get kicked in the teeth again....

I'm hoping for a positive day tomorrow..but who knows? It could go either way.

Good Luck Tomorrow,

FS

 

[Uptrend]

Nov 5 may be starting out a little on the negative side, but who knows where we will go today.

For those who love the I fund, and have rode the dollar down, a turn of events may be on the horizon. According to Rueters a month ago "Noted in a few updates last week that while had not seen any signs of a bottom in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) was looking for a potential bottom based on several technical factors including: regression channel support, possible positive divergences, Elliott Wave, Fib Time Interval -- click for updated chart. The first step on a short term would be a break/close above the 78.40/78.60 zone." Currently the index is at 76.41, up from 76.24 earlier this morning. No more Fed cuts on horizon. If inflation takes off Fed may raise rates. All good for dollar rebound.

Look at all the active trader leaders and the percent of time spent in the I fund. If the dollar rebounds soon or late this year and into 08, will the love affair with the I fund come to an end?

 

[Uptrend]

Ben Bernanke leading the markets

 

[Uptrend]

This morning is a tough call; stay or go to G. Could be something to the double bottom S&P 1490 theory. Stopped around 1494. Making recovery. Upward hammer could be forming on the charts after an indecision day (spinning top). If this rebound continues by IFT time looks more like a positive sign. May just ride it - in S.

 

[Uptrend]

Charts show a high probability for an up day tomorrow in USM. We will have to see how far the penetration is into the big Nov 1 down day. For a confirmed reversal, the new uptrend must push more than 50% into it (about 1530 - 1535 on the S&P) within a few trading days. I expect an up day, followed by perhaps an indecision day or a down day, before heading up. That is based on lingering xxx billion write-off financial reports. The volatility index shows a possible decrease in volatility tomorrow.

Looked like today was run by fear, and elevated by shorts to drive the market down; and then the professional traders made a run at the close, where the shorts had to cover. At any rate this pattern is a positive formation on the charts.

Too far down the mountain - staying with S

 

[CorMaGa34]

Uptrend,

This oil supply and demand is the reason why for months have been thinking about just sticking a % into I fund and leaving it there until retirement and then until it is no longer feasible to leave it there... but then I get like I want to be with the rest of the group and make moves to make a gain... (obviously I did not make a gain this last week, I also believe it was the worst one I have had in a long time)

I like your postings and comments, thanks for sharing! G L

Oil demand in the world Look at 2007. It is going off the chart. Another reason oil will be a future market mover. Supply and demand.

http://moneyandmarkets.com/Issues.aspx?NewsletterEntryId=1148

 

[Uptrend]

Thanks G L. Today has opened with a little spurt, but rather lackluster. The litle upper shadows need to be filled. Heck if we are going to go anywhere we need to get halfway up the Nov 1 down day, and there is a low chance of that happening.

I have bee looking at Drummond Geometry and have started plotting the PLdot for each day. This is a nifty metric that can tell us the short term trend. It is the average of the average of the high, low and close of the last three trading days for a stock or indicies. When I accumulate more data, I can give a better picture. I have completed a quick net search and don't see it tracked anywhere. Perhaps someone knows?

Leaning towards IFT to F tomorrow. That is because AGG has a hammer forming (lower shadow) and is sitting on 20 dma and above 50 dma. This indicates that an upturn is F is possible and downturn in the stock funds (playing it contrarian). Day late for G. Taking pennies...

 

[350zCommTech]

Leaning towards IFT to F tomorrow.

You read my mind. The F fund is down 2 cents at the moment.

 

[Uptrend]

Yellow Light. That was a nice little rally, but will it hold up? We did not pierce halfway into the big down day (Nov1) candlestick. After a big hit, more often than not the day following the first good up day could be an indecision day. Any kind of negative news will drag it down.

How about oil? (one hour ago)

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - Crude oil closed at a new record high of $96.70 a barrel on Tuesday after forecasts showed U.S. crude inventories may fall for a third week and the dollar touched a new low against the euro, boosting the value of oil as an alternative investment.

Lets not party yet

 

[RPM]

Yellow Light. That was a nice little rally, but will it hold up? We did not pierce halfway into the big down day (Nov1) candlestick. After a big hit, more often than not the day following the first good up day could be an indecision day. Any kind of negative news will drag it down.

Lets not party yet

SPY and QQQQ and SP500 futures are all down after hours... which were what happened last week too... but with this volatility, reversals are almost expected :suspicious:

 

[wv-girl]

SPY and QQQQ and SP500 futures are all down after hours... which were what happened last week too... but with this volatility, reversals are almost expected :suspicious:

Boy its hard to make $ in this kind of market with our deadline limitations. Wonder if a trend is forming? One up day...one(or 2) down days. Hmmm.

 

[Wolverine]

No party here.

 

[Uptrend]

Roller Coaster. The futures look red. Seperating Lines candlestick pattern (positive) formed today, but looks like possibly a Harami Cross pattern is forming (negative) for Wednesday.

Lets See:
Oil tops $98 barrel
Gold accelerates over $800/oz
GM will report down 3rd Q with some weird accounting write-offs.
Wall St exec's may get smaller or no bonuses due to write-offs (so sorry!)

And the market is in a narrow trading range and cant get out of it. S&P 1490 -1555. It has made three attempts in last 10 years:

Highs March 2000 1552
July 2007 1555
October 2007 1550
Lows at 1490 area last Friday and Monday.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={56F68224-6FA1-4CF0-9BC7-473161D81E32}

It seems to me the market will probably not bust through the glass ceiling until the subprime thing stabilizes, We are range bound and will need to become experts on the up/down game. Pity to the one who is invested when the floor breaks. :nuts:

 

[RPM]

Roller Coaster. The futures look red. Seperating Lines candlestick pattern (positive) formed today, but looks like possibly a Harami Cross pattern is forming (negative) for Wednesday.

:nuts:

Japan is red too. Looks like you made another good call to get out! Please keep them coming! Thanks!

 

[Steadygain]

Very good move my friend, good job!

 

[RPM]

Japan is red too. Looks like you made another good call to get out! Please keep them coming! Thanks!

Any call for Th/Fr? Thanks.

 

[Uptrend]

Moving to S. Buy Fear! OEX put/call ratio at 1.26 (bearish) Good for a rally. Small Caps have the most to gain from a falling dollar. Companies can't ship stuff fast enough to OSM, and will be adding more folks.

I fund has an inverted hammer, and below 20 dma Could fall further. Look like S&P will hold above the 1490 majic number. Small Caps had an engulfing candlestick 2 day pattern early (bad), but I think it will change to a black hammer as we go along today (more positive for tomorrow).

 

[Uptrend]

Ups, Downs and Bumps. I will make this quick, as I am on TDY tomorrow. If we IFT tomorrow, it must hold through Tuesday, because of the holiday. So I am eyeing I. It is more insulated from the credit crisis and is past the big Nikkei drop tonight for a Thursday IFT cob. EFA will probably find support tomorrow at the 50 dma. OEX put/call ratio is now at 1.3 (buy zone).

When I swing trade, it is always risky. The charts quite often show that a big down day is followed by either an indecision day, an up day or another down day. However there is usually more indecision or ups than downs for one day following a big down day. For example, Nov 1 was a big down, Nov 2 was an indecision day with a slight up, Nov 5 was a down day and Nov 6 was an big up day. In a severe downtrend this does not hold ( I would not say that we are in a severe downtrend yet). When you do these swings there is a chance you will get burned with a down continuation. For Thursday Nov 8, I will swing out of S and into I. I am thinking S may sink in the morning, but make a run at the close. Beware: these trades are risky. If I didn't have a big personal gain this year, I would be playing a little safer.