Uptrend's Account Talk

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No I have not read 350z comment. There is news "hype" today that the Fed may not cut rates. However, that would severly disappoint the market and push it down and the Fed knows it. Do you think they would really take that risk? Now a 0.25 basis point cut may not really overjoy the market either, and I am wondering how the little rally can be continued the next trading day.

I is not a bad alternative, because the cut will probably tank the dollar some more. Because the cut will not be announced until the afternoon ET, it will be too late for the EFAE markets to respond. That is why I would consider swinging to I for Nov 1. The EFAE markets retreating today a little bit will have little. effect on the reaction, because the markets would be closed. However, the anticipation factor is another matter. If the contrary news does not affect the OSM, it may push them up. So it is a tough call. I hate politics!

On the chart side USM have more room to rise. This morning they are retreating a little bit below the 20 dma (which bothers me a little bit). However I think they will push forward tomorrow. OSM have already gapped a fair ways above their 20 dma. Sticking with America
 
Uptrend said:
Because the cut will not be announced until the afternoon ET, it will be too late for the EFAE markets to respond.
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I think 350Z is counting on the FV from the rising USM in the afternoon. Lately, the FV seems to be on the generous side :)
 
Uptrend said:
Many folks like models or a system. But human intelligence created these systems. Markets are complicated, with some information needed to make a decision that cannot be easily put into a computer system. It takes human tinkering. That is my take anyway.


From someone who has studied the brain's various pathways on a molecular level - functional MRIs - and everyway imaginable - THAT IS THE UNDERSTATEMENT OF THE YEAR. I wholeheartedly agree. Many systems have proven to be valid - and only Trader Fred's seems to be solidly based on "an intelligent design" BUT EVEN THEN WITHOUT THE HUMAN TINKERING - I would not have made the gains I made while he was in G.
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Thanks Steadygain. All I was trying to say is that many folks want "systems" but trading decisions need to be made from a number of scattered, different and unrelated pieces of information.

Now for Oct 31. First the USM charts show a 3 day evening star chart candlestick pattern. This is normally a classic bearish reversal pattern. However, the pattern (can be seen the best with the $SPX) is not technically formed completely. That is a good thing. The futures tonight are showing that the large caps may have trouble getting above the 20 dma. This is a bad thing. However,the 10 dma trendline is sitll up and above the 20 dma, and that is also a good thing.

The GDP report released in the morning is supposed to show 3% growth in the 3rd quarter, but 1.5% for the 4th, so recession fears are out there. Oil is going down under $90, and that is positive for the market.

TSPgo's idea of being in I tomorrow could be a good play. Trying to corner the +FV when Barclays reprices the EAFE and bail out (sell) before it is reversed the next day is a neat idea. Barclays is trying to prevent market timing between the time OSM close and when they reprice the index, but this strategy is out foxing the market timing move by being invested in the I fund when the +FV occurs. One must be sure the USM will move significantly or the currency will make a big change. This condition might appear tomorrow, but it might not. Hats off to TSPgo for figuring out a way to estimate the FV, when it occurs.

I am leaning towards holding 50/50 C S for Thursday. If the markets open strongly lower, this will confirm the evening star chart pattern and I will bail to G/F. Hopefully there will be a rebound. Normally I like to be in the market the first day and last day of most months, because of pro's rebalancing their positions. I don't want to swing to I for Nov 1 becasue there is a fairly good chance of a +FV on Oct 31, and then a high chance of a reversal on Nov 1. Go America! :)
 
Uptrend said:
I am leaning towards holding 50/50 C S for Thursday. If the markets open strongly lower, this will confirm the evening star chart pattern and I will bail to G/F. Hopefully there will be a rebound. Normally I like to be in the market the first day and last day of most months, because of pro's rebalancing their positions. I don't want to swing to I for Nov 1 becasue there is a fairly good chance of a +FV on Oct 31, and then a high chance of a reversal on Nov 1. Go America! :)
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Really appreciate your analysis, especially since I could not even recognized the name of the chart you are using. How low does the market have to go for you to bail to G/F? Will you post and alert? Thank you.
 
Uptrend said:
....I don't want to swing to I for Nov 1 becasue there is a fairly good chance of a +FV on Oct 31, and then a high chance of a reversal on Nov 1. Go America! :)
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I'm BANKING on a +FV......I hope you are right, cause that will make two of us!:cool:
 
The GDP report is helping things at the moment. Also a bullish pattern is forming on the charts, but we need confirmation. The C and S are more even at the moment and the C is picking up. There has been a high percentage of more even C/S %+/- days in the last two weeks, so either C is picking up or S is slacking. Matching my 50/50 split at the moment.

Based on longer term pattern analysis or an uptrend, we will get a rest day soon, which will be a little bigger down day. But because the indices are sitting near the 20 dma, and seasonality, I am thinking a slight delay may be in order. But that bumps up against my don't be a pig rules. The chances are building each day now for a slightly larger down day, based on the uptrend starting on 10/22. I like to be out after about 7 -9 days unless there are circumstances that say green. Fridays jobs report scares me; estimate of 80K this year vs 140K last - indication of a slower economy. Not sure how traders will view.:)
 
Uptrend said:
I don't want to swing to I for Nov 1 becasue there is a fairly good chance of a +FV on Oct 31, and then a high chance of a reversal on Nov 1. Go America! :)
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I'm starting to become skeptical about a +/- FV the next two days. I thought the market would be a little lower this morning waiting for the Fed's decision. I don't see a rocket launch either way from this morning's numbers unless Ben surprises us.:suspicious:
 
SCHAGAN said:
I'm starting to become skeptical about a +/- FV the next two days. I thought the market would be a little lower this morning waiting for the Fed's decision. I don't see a rocket launch either way from this morning's numbers unless Ben surprises us.:suspicious:
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It was supposed to be a down morning based on so so GDP report. But then the economy grew faster than expected. Lowering oil also may be making traders more optimistic? That is the chance you take trying to guess what is in reports.
 
Uptrend said:
It was supposed to be a down morning based on so so GDP report. But then the economy grew faster than expected. Lowering oil also may be making traders more optimistic? That is the chance you take trying to guess what is in reports.
Click to expand...

Do you think there might be a chance there is no cut today? have you decided to stay in or bail out this morning? thanks!
 
Wow!

October 31 2007: 10:38 AM EDT


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Oil prices jumped over $2 a barrel Wednesday after the government said supplies of crude oil fell unexpectedly despite a drop in refining activity.
U.S. light crude for December delivery rose $2.67 to $93.05 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil had traded 85 cents higher just prior to the report's release

http://money.cnn.com/2007/10/31/markets/oil_eia/index.htm?section=money_latest
 
RPM said:
Do you think there might be a chance there is no cut today? have you decided to stay in or bail out this morning? thanks!
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Nothings certian, but the high probability is in favor of the cut. Trading is a game of probabilities, not certainities. I am going with the cut. Unless something drastic develops in the next hour I am holding 50/50 C S for tomorrow.
 
Housing problems knocked off a full point from Q3 GDP - it would have been 4.9%. Thank housing for the coming rate cut - they can easily due .50 because they are data dependent and PCE is at 1.9% and in their zone.
 
Big scare on boards! Wasn't that a knee jerk reaction! The S&P finally blasted above the 20 dma. That should be good for another trading day or so. Need to watch the play by play. S&P making a run at the NASDAQ, so it doesn't much matter what fund you are in. Oil being ignored for now.

We should be fortunate we got a positive GDP report this AM, because the charts indicated the markets could go south with a drop at opening.
 
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