Uptrend's Account Talk

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Sorry Frixxxx, we've all been in the wrong fund at the wrong time. 50% of my assessment of today's activity was based on the F Fund - when that's going down - it's a very good sign for those in higher risk. ;)
 
Uptrend - my brother and friend - I mean this in a friendly competitive spirit. I was hoping to show you up a little this week but in all likelihood we'll probably be even. Even though the I Fund Chart had a fairly better result - the actual gains are usually a bit lower - whereas C and S Fund Charts are pretty much on target. The end result may actually give you a slight edge - anyway, good luck.:)
 
Steadygain said:
Sorry Frixxxx, we've all been in the wrong fund at the wrong time. 50% of my assessment of today's activity was based on the F Fund - when that's going down - it's a very good sign for those in higher risk. ;)
Click to expand...

Just pointing out the F was down today....That's all, mostly tongue in cheek reference.:cool:
 
That GDP number is a very good thing..Can't wait to get a handle on where the real brightness is in the economy...maybe that's something to rally behind as we move into the 4th Q.

Uncle Ben doesn't want more rate cuts and neither do I...somehow those major players need to have their voices curbed cause you know they are't going to like it..my guess is that they'll spike oil to get the news back under their control again..hate it when that happens..:D:D

Enjoy the next day, then expect to see the negative news start to sprout again..

GL All..:D:D

FS
 
It is about time to leave cash on the table and walk away. What??

Have you ever watched that TV show with 28 lovely ladies holding silver cases with numbers on them? The contestants pick a case at a time and try and keep the $1,000,000 and other big numbers in play. Quite often they go to far and don't leave a safety net (big dollar figure above another) and the bank offer on each round continues to go down. Many times these folks will not make a deal and play on until they have $5 left, even though they had over $300,000 on the board in an earlier round. What makes people do this? Greed: strong desire for more: an overwhelming desire to have more of something such as money than is actually needed. My postulate is that each person has various degrees of a greed addiction.

In trading you have to guess within certian parameters when to sell and walk away. The trader must be prepared for the reality that the next day the market may rise, and the trader lose money. But did you really lose or did you save a big loss a day or two later. This strategy has really helped me over the year.

Here are some basics of what I do. Capital Preservation is the Key. These rules can stand alone or be used in combination with others. Of course follow your own heart, and remember all trades are a risk.

In an Uptrend - When to get out, walk away, take a breather.
1 From the last big down day (1% + move) or the last strong buy signal; wait 7-9 trading days (can vary each way a little).

2 When above the 20 dma, sell after 3-5 trading days (each day may become riskier than the preceeding one), and condition one is not met.

3 When chart patterns indicate a sell.

4 When bonds (AGG chart) is in a downtrend, then an indecision day (spinning top pattern), and above conditons are in focus.

Remember don't be a Pig!

 
Tomorrow may be a tough call for me. I want to stay in (my greed), but my Don't be a Pig Rules (see previous post) say a sell should occur soon.

The charts still show a bullish trend (engulfing pattern) that is better developed on the $EMW vs $SPX. The EFA is still kicking, but that may change tomorrow with Europe markets. Looking at the futures tonight, there may be little upside in the S&P and NASDAQ and the open and close may be close together. If so, this signals indecision. IF,AGG is falling or also showing indecision, I amy sell. I can't give a play on this one until closer to IFT time, although I am leaning towards a sell. I don't like the new jobs report, but the third quarter GDP increase may override. Oil climbs. The last two weeks of October was a nice run! :D:D:D
 
I am considering I fund for Friday Nov 2. Based on kicking chart pattern. More negative on the USM. I may still have some strength for about 2 more days. :)
 
Uptrend said:
What drives people on beyond a good stopping point? Greed: strong desire for more: an overwhelming desire to have than is actually needed.

In trading you have to guess when to sell and walk away. The trader must be prepared for the reality that the next day the market may rise. But you perserve your existing capital.


Capital Preservation is the Key.
Of course follow your own heart, and remember all trades are a risk.

In an Uptrend - When to get out, walk away, take a breather.
1 From the last big down day (1% + move) or the last strong buy signal; wait 7-9 trading days (can vary each way a little).

2 When above the 20 dma, sell after 3-5 trading days (each day may become riskier than the preceeding one), and condition one is not met.

3 When chart patterns indicate a sell.

4 When bonds (AGG chart) is in a downtrend, then an indecision day (spinning top pattern), and above conditons are in focus.

Remember don't be a Pig!

Click to expand...

Very well put my friend - and I really appreciate your input.

Of course follow your own heart -is by far the most important part of your message. Many will be able to get ahead following your lead, or mine, and moreover using various systems already in place (EK's, Charm's, Ebb's, Trader Fred ...) but until you learn to follow your own instincts - and come up with a unique plan that works for you - then you will never learn to make it on your own and more importantly you'll never have that ultimate TRIUMPHANT FEELING of having the winning hand.

I also want to echo the second most important message DON'T BE A PIG.

I start every year with a specific amount I hope to achieve by the end of the year. This goal forces me to make fairly frequent IFTs and hold on when times are rough. I have already surpassed my goal - so an occasional loss is no big deal for me.
 
Well: This changes everything! It was expected, but came a day early for me. Greed I guess. It went against seasonality, charts (although the $S&P did show a little technical problem, but eh $EMW did not), and other indicators I use. Did not factor in Exxon, and did not think the oil card would be played so soon.

At this point I may ride. S&P needs to make it back to the 1538 - 1540 area. I will be looking by IFT time the chances of that. It looks like we will be jerked around for the next few days.
 
Bad hit, but the best strategy, is to hold for now. Too fast of decisions to bail to G/F can hurt, in a snap back. Too much back-off to be real, as charts were showing a more bullish nature. Holding C/S 50:50
 
Are you really sure about that?:D
Speaking about charts, do I see the center spike top of a Big "W"?
Some times playing the bounce doesn't work and sometimes it does.
 
Frixxxx said:
Greed is good. - Gordon Gecko
:cool:
Click to expand...

Whatever happened to Gordon Gecko? Is he still around? Haven't heard anything from him - lately anyway!
On other hand, Jim Cramer says: Don't be a Pig! And, he's still very busy, visible & active.:D
Is there a lesson here?
 
They've made another movie as a follow up called "Money Never Sleeps" should be released next year.
 
NASDAQ trying to make a little rally, S&P you can do it! Don't let Wall Street push you around. This appears to be a fake drop. Looking for a rebound in the next 2 trading days. Could be sesaw after that. :notrust:
 
Maybee this will keep us from going belwo the 50 dma

Private payrolls grow much more than expected
ADP report points to strong showing for nonfarm payrolls data Friday
By Robert Schroeder, MarketWatch
Last Update: 11:31 AM ET Oct 31, 2007
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WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Private payrolls grew by a much stronger-than-expected 106,000 in October, following a revised gain of 61,000 in September, payroll provider ADP reported Wednesday in its monthly employment index.


Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting the ADP employment index to rise by 55,000. See Economic Calendar.
The ADP report suggests that nonfarm payrolls may have grown more in October than the 85,000 anticipated by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. The Labor Department will report on the nonfarm payrolls number on Friday.
Adding in the typical monthly gain of about 20,000 government jobs not covered by the ADP, the report suggests the government's figures on nonfarm payrolls probably grew by about 125,000.
 
We see a downward continuation pattern on the charts today, but smaller. Selling pressure appears to be subsiding. The small caps (tracking by $EMW) has more indecision because of upper and lower shadows. It also refuses to give up the 50 dma. S&P broke below. As I write this the NASDAQ in flickering from red to green. Proves indecision. Indecision is good, as we are running out of sellars. I see more upside potential to the S than C for the next trading day or two.

The I fund bounced off the 20 dma and a spinning top has formed. This means indecision also. I see upside soon in the I fund.

However, the S has more to rise. My money is on S. IFT 100% S for 11/5.

By the way this is the worst fall Uptrend has taken this year. I was out for the February fall. It was on the charts. The warning signs were there for this November fall, but obscured on the charts. There was no time to react. I knew a reversal was coming soon. I assumed we had one more day based on various factors that proved incorrect. I ignored my own message about not taking too much gain at a time. I was greedy. The situation between the falling dollar and inflation risk spells no more rate cuts in all probability, and this became a sobering reality.

Still way in the green for the year. Getting on the elevator for more. :)
 
C Fund will rise! Example of future buying pressure.

"Miller is also making broad alterations to the portfolio, according to the investor letter. The fund will buy more large-cap stocks and reduce the number of midcap names held. The market's new leaders will be big U.S. companies, in Miller's view, particularly those in the financial-services and consumer sectors."

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={61FE8C37-FE5A-45D2-A766-0FD48AA2BF8D}
 
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