Uptrend's Account Talk

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Uptrend said:
Ups, Downs and Bumps. \ Beware: these trades are risky. If I didn't have a big personal gain this year, I would be playing a little safer. :cool:
Click to expand...

Thanks for the great analysis. You are always a must read for me. And thanks for the warning to decouple the risk tolerance from market analysis. GL
 
Looks like we are in a confirmed downtrend. There is no end to the xxx billion write-down bad news. The $SPX broke the long term trend line at about 1471 today, so I am going to G until further notice. Does not look good. Stock shorting in now the game, but TSP won't let us do that.

It is really a bummer to see my Oct gains wiped out.:( However, I am in protect mode for the Jan -Sept gains.
 
Today (Nov 9) there was some buying activity towards the close. But we are now in a downtrend, having broken the long term uptrend line. I will be very conservative on my trades going forward, until we gain back market strength. As you know, I rely a lot on chart patterns. The trouble with pattern analysis, is that by the time the warning pattern arrives, it is past IFT time. So now I go to my cave, and only come out when I see a high probability pattern develop. That means I may miss a big 1.5-2% up day here and there, but that is ok. Patterns don't have emotions and help confirm probabilities.

My stop Loss has kicked in. I am still in the +26% range for the year, and want to retain capital. The big swing trades without a completely formed chart are not good. A long weekend is not good. So holding in G/F.

By the way near the close today, S&P chart says indecision, small caps and EFA say perhaps a little rally. But I need a stronger chart and no holiday in the way. There will be lots more opportunities. Lets be realistic and hold while the shorts run the table. :cool:
 
My Brother (and friend), the cave is a cozy place and we're all looking forward to your arrival. It's been a nice shelter from the storm and I would imagine many more will follow. Anyway - plenty of room for everyone - I'll turn on the lava lamps and we'll fire one up as soon as you settle in.
 
The 9 month cycle has a window of plus or minus one month and we are nesting right now - next week we should be moving up out of the price low. The 9 month was scheduled to bottom on Dec 19th but has shifted again as I suspected. The bullish trend has now corrected any excesses that may have come before. The financials were moving up today and I keep thinking about the price of oil and the fact that the SPX is 10%+ energy and 23% financial. Every time the 9 month has bottomed it has tested the NYSE A/D line at the 1% trend or 200 dma. I've got a long way to go to get to Dow 15,900 - my only hope is for Paulson to say something to prop the dollar and squeez the shorts.
 
"The wind in the wires made a tattle-tale sound
and a wave broke over the railing.
And ev'ry man knew, as the captain did too
'twas the witch of November come stealin'.
The dawn came late and the breakfast had to wait
when the Gales of November came slashin'.
When afternoon came it was freezin' rain
in the face of a hurricane west wind".

Remember this Gordon Lightfoot song? Well, I feel like I was robbed. It was quite a Halloween present. I'm ok with a little stealin' as long as I get out when my stop loss has been hit. But look ahead. I don't know about you, but I don't want to face the hurricane west wind.

I am looking for a bounce area to play, but don't see one right now. The correction this summer had loss days up to six in a row. Here is our situation.

Nov-1 down, Nov-2 indecision, Nov-5 down, Nov-6 up, Nov-7 down, Nov-8 indecision, Nov-9 down, Nov -12 ??, Nov-13 ?? (I count 3)

More down days?

$SPX Pro Chart shows a spinning top for Nov 9 which signals indecision. However the open and close make a fairly wide body with fairly equal upper and lower shadows. In the other cases on the charts when I have seen this wide body candlestick described in a downtrend, it was followed by more down days. Also, a downtrend continuation pattern after a spinning top or doji star day on Nov 8 and down on Nov 7. And broke below the long term trendline. Con Bollinger bands are applied (which are 2 standard deviations from the 20 dma). The market is considered oversold when the lower band is hit or goes below in a downtrend. That would be 1465, and the market closed today at 1453

$EMW Pro Downtrend continuation, after a spinning top day of indecision. Broke below long term trend line. Con Bollinger bands show that conditions are oversold.

EFA Pro Chart shows broke below the 50 dma today. Last time it did that was in late July, and then there were 2 huge down days. EFA has not hit lower bollinger band. Lower band 81.55, close today at 81.73, so not technically oversold, but close.

View from the Bear Cave On a scale of buy hold or wait.

Wait




 
Uptrend said:
"The wind in the wires made a tattle-tale sound
and a wave broke over the railing.
And ev'ry man knew, as the captain did too
'twas the witch of November come stealin'.
The dawn came late and the breakfast had to wait
when the Gales of November came slashin'.
When afternoon came it was freezin' rain
in the face of a hurricane west wind".

Remember this Gordon Lightfoot song? Well, I feel like I was robbed. It was quite a Halloween present. I'm ok with a little stealin' as long as I get out when my stop loss has been hit. But look ahead. I don't know about you, but I don't want to face the hurricane west wind.

I am looking for a bounce area to play, but don't see one right now. The correction this summer had loss days up to six in a row. Here is our situation.

Nov-1 down, Nov-2 indecision, Nov-5 down, Nov-6 up, Nov-7 down, Nov-8 indecision, Nov-9 down, Nov -12 ??, Nov-13 ?? (I count 3)

More down days?

$SPX Pro Chart shows a spinning top for Nov 9 which signals indecision. However the open and close make a fairly wide body with fairly equal upper and lower shadows. In the other cases on the charts when I have seen this wide body candlestick described in a downtrend, it was followed by more down days. Also, a downtrend continuation pattern after a spinning top or doji star day on Nov 8 and down on Nov 7. And broke below the long term trendline. Con Bollinger bands are applied (which are 2 standard deviations from the 20 dma). The market is considered oversold when the lower band is hit or goes below in a downtrend. That would be 1465, and the market closed today at 1453

$EMW Pro Downtrend continuation, after a spinning top day of indecision. Broke below long term trend line. Con Bollinger bands show that conditions are oversold.

EFA Pro Chart shows broke below the 50 dma today. Last time it did that was in late July, and then there were 2 huge down days. EFA has not hit lower bollinger band. Lower band 81.55, close today at 81.73, so not technically oversold, but close.

View from the Bear Cave On a scale of buy hold or wait.

Wait
Click to expand...


On charting, I did check the $SPX MACD and Slow Stochastic, and both are still showing great divergence, but I was being greedy, so I went in thinking it's a one day move. My guess was right as the OSM did start out green, and there wasn't supposed to be any major earnings/announcement today. But any news now is bad news, and the market tanked by the morning! On top of that, Barclay did a major steal on 0.75% -FV, so the hurt was worse than should be. And of course, I got out by noon, so got the full wrath of the -FV!!!:(

Oh well, up day, down day, if Leibovit is right, it will go up again soon :suspicious:
 
Charmed 855 says the -FV was -1.34% I know it was huge and I got killed. But a stop loss is just that. Get out and accept the damage.
 
Chart Talk

I have done some checking the charts and find that when the 20 dma falls below the 50 dma we enter a period of market weakness. There is a bit of a lag, but the real low then comes about 2 -3 weeks later.

If you look at the charts the 20 and 50 are just about crossing now, with 20 going below 50. I have looked back 3 years and the pattern is always the same. There is also a roller coaster ride but with some gains and then some huge down days. On $SPX we broke the approximate 1460 support, so the next stop is either 1410, 1375, then 1325. Below that it is lights out to the 1225 level. Not riding this train. :laugh:
 
Will the Japanese Carry Trade fall apart and bring down the markets?

Currently USd to JPY 110.65. It is being shorted like mad. But what if the BOJ (Bank of Japan) raises rates? Or what happens when our currency drops too much? When fear causes a rush to buy Yen to cover, then we will really see a market mayday. The weak dollar could make this happen. It seems the US dollar falling, is making the exact spot of unwinding a little harder to identify. If hedge funds can borrow Yen at 0% interest and convert to USD and get 5%, then the unwinding would be where the difference is above 5% and the trade is no longer viable. Too much currency difference may make a mad dash for the exit.

Read more: (March 2007 info, but good)

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article500.html

Also:

http://www.bestmindsinc.com/YencarryTrade.7706.Thakur.htm
 
That's what I'm talking about! Check this out!! Currently YEN to Dollar is 110.6800. If they raise rates BOOM!
http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=forex

[Greed & Fear] And the yen carry trade

“The world has of late stopped talking about the yen carry trade,” notes CLSA’s Christopher Wood in his subscriber newsletter Greed and Fear. “But the most recent data on capital outflows from Japan is a reminder that the key component of the yen carry trade is probably the Japanese themselves.” [See data below*]
The interesting point about the latest monthly data is that it provides clear evidence that the outflow into higher yielding assets offshore has begun to escalate, says Mr Wood.
“There is a growing risk that the regular monthly Japanese outflow offshore turns into a tsunami based on the well-known Japanese cultural tendency to extrapolate trends to the extreme.”
Given the latest warnings from international multilateral institutions to Japan — the OECD and IMF, as reported by the FT on Thursday – to “refrain from raising interest rates until inflation is firmly positive” (that is, to keep rates at their current near-rock bottom level of 0.5 per cent), Mr Wood’s predictions will undoubtedly be born out.
However, if the yen falls towards the 125-130 range against the dollar on increased capital outflows, notes Mr Wood, “then Greed & Fear would still expect international pressure to mount regarding the undervaluation of the Japanese currency”. Such international pressure “would provide the Bank of Japan with the excuse to get on with normalising yen-interest rates,” he adds.:cool:
 
USM are going down on Nov 12, but what I overlooked on post #113, is that on the S&P there is some solid support at the 1430 area, and if that does not hold, well then to 1410. Any way you view it - is ugly. Nikkei is down -3.63% so far tonight. The USM futures are red and should get worse as the night goes along.

I can't see any compeling reports I like to get in the market this week. It looks like a bad idea to IFT to the I fund Tuesday for Wednesady Nov 14 because:

"Europe's biggest bank HSBC is this week expected to unveil a further big hit from its exposure to the U.S. mortgage crisis"

http://www.cnbc.com/id/21737403

The only thing that may stop the market falling is a susprise from Uncle Ben B. No way to plan for, so I will enjoy the view from the cave. Enjoying steadygains lava lamps: cool colors

Have a Happy Vetrens Day, and I appreciate Freedom evey day. Thank You Vets!
 
Have a Happy Veterans' Day, and I appreciate Freedom evey day.Thank You Vets!
__________________
 
Uptrend - first I want you to know I really enjoyed Post#110. You are one very cool dude - my brother and friend. I liked the song and the way you brought it to life and I liked the color too - very cool my friend and with lots of style. I feel I need to make something realy clear about me and Uptrend, we are very aggressive investors with our TSP and that's why he is at least 26% for this year and also why I reached my 2007 goal by the end of 9/07. Neither one of us is in the cave because we're bailing out of the game - we are here because we have made substantial gains and we have no intention of allowing our loss to go beyond a certain point. For everyone who chooses to remain in the higher risk, neither one of us is laughing at you, but both of us are certainly enjoying the prices plunging while we're in safety - because we will buy up the higher risk for a much lower price and have a lot more to invest. So please be cool everyone and don't try to get us out too soon. My experience (and his too) while in the cave has been wonderful and I don't regret it at all.

I was overseas when 50 American civilians were taken captive and the leader of that country began taughting the USA. I was in a combat unit - highly trained for warfare and at least 100% committed to the cause of serving our country. I told my platoon Sgt. I wanted to be part of a rescue mission to go in there and bring these guys back safe and I would do whatever it took to get the job done. I was assigned various Missions at progressively higher levels until they were all convinced "I was right for the job". Special Forces then came to get me in their unit and I became the ultimate soldier imaginable. After 9/11 if a higher ranking leader told me they knew the specific group responsible for the attacks and asked me to be part of a unit to settle the score, I would have disappeared without telling anyone (my family or boss) and got the job done. I am, and wil always be, a veteran through and through.

Thank you everyone - it was and is very much an honor - to do my part for the better of the whole.
 
Well the yen carry trade is unwinding some, due to risk reduction. Is that a cover word for fear of BOJ raising interest rates and strenghening the currency some more? On the flip side our greenback made some temporary recovery last night as the carry trade is unwinding.

I am wondering if we might see a mirror bottom that matches this summer in the 1410-1430 area? This might be the start of a new flatter channel that is anchored by the 07 February, July and November lows. Stocks would appreciate upward, but at a slower rate.

Based on the yen carry trade unwinding, the dollar index jumping, and bad news to be released on Wednesday for european banks, It might be a good idea to stay clear of the I fund for awhile. USM is now very oversold and will bounce. Question is when? Looking for clues...............
 
Uptrend said:
Well the yen carry trade is unwinding some, due to risk reduction. Is that a cover word for fear of BOJ raising interest rates and strenghening the currency some more?
Click to expand...

No, there's no fear. The BOJ is a tool. They're worst than our Fed. They were probably the ones buying the USD/YEN last night after the Nikkei fell 600 points and below the August low. It allowed the Nikkei to bounce 200 points. The BOJ will be holding rates steady for a while...

and bad news to be released on Wednesday for european banks, It might be a good idea to stay clear of the I fund for awhile. USM is now very oversold and will bounce. Question is when? Looking for clues...............
Click to expand...

What news exactly are expecting?

Thanks.
 
350z See post my post #116 for link. Europe's biggest bank, HSBC will report a big loss Wednesday. Not good for I fund??

It appears we may be running into some good support. See chart.

View attachment 2520

You can see the solid support at around the 1430 area. It seems it will take some real bad news to bust through, so we should get a bounce in the short term. Note the 100 dma. Back in August we got a run up to it. If it happens this time, that would be around 1500 and we would get a 4% bounce!

The 20 dma is now below the 50 dma (see circle). This is not real good news, and we need to be very careful until it goes the other way. There could be a huge down day anywhere.

Now here is the problem. The chart shows a downtrend. We had a indecision down day on Nov 9 and a solid down hammer day on Nov 12. However, on Nov 12 there are lower shadows and upper shadows on both the $SPX and more on $EMW so that means a little indecision (and that is good). What we need is for the market to start out down tomorrow Nov 13, but come back to the open, and trade in a narrow range or go above it. We need some confirmation that the bears try to take down the market, but the bulls take over. Since we can't see what happens past IFT time, we will need to guess. The last two trading days where the pro traders take down the market in the last 45 minutes is a concern. However, I think it will be difficult in the short term to get past the 1430 area support level (I think this is one of the best clues for a short rally)

Thinking to buy into the C or C/S funds tomorrow. Is Uptrend crazy?

Thinking to stay out of I (reason above and US dollar index up).

Becoming more cynical on F. Downgrades in bond ratings may affect bonds negatively. Here is a good article (and a little scary):

http://moneyandmarkets.com/Issues.aspx?NewsletterEntryId=1178
 
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