Uptrend's Account Talk

[Uptrend]

Thanks RPM! What just happened? See chart.

http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#cha...ick;crosshair=on;logscale=on;source=undefined

First note the big down day on Oct 19, when some TSP traders lost $. Then notice the close on Oct 23 when the buying pressure (green candlestick) is about halfway up the previous red candlestick on Oct 19. That is good, but technically it should be more than halfway for a reversal. Then on Oct 24 we have a bullish hammer pattern forming. Notice that the selling pressure pushes lower in intraday trading (the lower handle) but buyers control the close. The hamnmer body is contained within the previous day candlestick, which is a good reversal sign. Then on Oct 25 we have a spinning top chart pattern formed. This means indecision in the market, and a tug of war between buyers and sellers. On Oct 26 we see a a morning doji star pattern form. This is a bullish reversal. Go USM!

Where am I going with all this pattern analysis. When the hammer pattern formed on Oct 24, that signaled a bullish reversal. That was the signal to make a IFT on Oct 25 and get in stocks for the big day on Oct 26. Forget the politics and news hype. See what the charts say!

 

[Uptrend]

What will the Fed do on Halloween? Dreess up in party costumes? OR lower the Fed discount rate?

According to Marketwatch.com, Pimco's Bill Gross expects the central bank to cut rates by 25 basis points. In his video clip he says he thinks the Fed thinks that a steady linear decline of the dollar is acceptable, and oh by the way Gross says "put your money overseas". On the other hand Warren Buffet is warning about the asian valuation bubble. Who is right?

Back to the Fed, it appears to me that the 0.25% rate cut is now factored in the market (if you were not at the party Friday you missed it!). The charts are in a bullish uptrend. So I think we have a hold Monday and Tuesday. Not sure whether to "sell the news" Wednesday, as Nov 1 should be the next market test. Normally the first four trading days of any month are generally advances. But what's normal these days?

 

[Uptrend]

Added Auto Trader Feature

I have added the Auto Tracker to my signature as a link. I joined on 10/15 and am currently in 37th place with a return of 4.05%. Just so everyone knows I have been at this awhile (not bragging - just stating a fact) my 2007 TSP return stands at 29.52% (Did you hear that Ebb??)

I do not subscribe to any of the premium services. I used to look at Ebb and Trader Fred. I thought Ebb had a little too much market exposure, while Fred was always a day behind and a little conservative. But their approaches are valid and are viable alternatives for the active investor. Especially if you don't have time to do market research. For me, it is a hobby - so far.

Happy Trading Everyone!

 

[Uptrend]

Oops! I meant Auto Tracker Not Trader!

 

[Steadygain]

Just so everyone knows I have been at this awhile (not bragging - just stating a fact) my 2007 TSP return stands at 29.52%

That is fantastic! You have definately got my admiration and respect. I bought Ebb's yearly plan as a token of appreciation because I felt he deserved it for bringing me thousands in August (so the $162 was a thank you). I rarely even look at his chart and feel more confident calling my own shots.

I was waiting until 08 to start the AT - and since I bought Ebb's plan I'm not sure if I'm allowed. My rank for the year is higher than most, but not nearly as good as you. Anyway - thanks for sharing the 29.52% 07 return. For me it distinguishes you from a newbe just trying to get attention from a seasoned well thought out investor who has a very solid standing. If I didn't welcome you to the MB before - you certainly have a heartfelt welcome now.

 

[Uptrend]

Thanks Steadygain! I enjoy reading your column. I believe you can be tracked even though you subscribe to Ebb. Your total gain will be shown, but not any daily allocations among the funds. Check out the AT and you will see that is going on now. Sure a convenient way to track the IFT and loss/gain.

There are no guarentees in TSP investing. You can have lots of information, but market timing is tricky. Some of the trades this year were slam dunks, but others were more like gambling - they call that risk. No risk no reward as they say.

Most of next week looks like a green light to me, although I like to call the plays day by day to take advantage of the changing moods on Wall Street. The big ?? right now is oil. According to Martketwatch:

"The Federal Reserve rate decision next week is also going to be a catalyst. If they go 50, I would expect to see the dollar go lower and oil would go higher...If they don't cut, they'll think the economy is ok ...but will struggle with energy demand growth. No matter what the Fed does next week, it will be a catalyst for higher oil prices," said Kilduff, a CNBC
contributor."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/21494132

We will have to see how oil plays out.

 

[Uptrend]

Looking at the S&P (tracking by $SPX) is still under the 20 dma at about 1540. To bust through old highs, the S&P must climb above 1565. But we must get past the 20 dma first. Looking at candlestick chart patterns, markets normally don't make more than 7-9 day climbs (including some indecision and slight down days), before there is a sizeable down day. So looking at last week, we are basically into 5 days of an uptrend. The market should say afloat through the FOMC announcement day of Oct 31. Doing the math, 5+3 = 8. 8>7 and 8<9. It is a safe road. At this point I am leaning towards selling the news and not sticking around for Thursday. The new jobs report coming out Friday Nov 2 is supposed to report 80K new jobs, but down from 130K something last year. That sounds so so to me, but we shall see. Oil is the wild card on the table.

 

[Uptrend]

Wow! Surprised to hear about 12% closed account. He appeared to be a fairly good market timer.

On to tomorrow. Looks like we all should have been 100% I, Nikkei is kicking, and Europe futures look good. USM S&P futures currently at 1544 which is above the 20 dma and that is a positive sign. However, I am becoming more negative on USM for Tuesday Oct 30. May swing to 100% 1 or go to a G/F hold. Expect to play 10/31 and possibly 11/1. More negative on 11/2.

One day before the last FOMC announcement, the USM retreated about 0.5% (estimate - have not figured it out exactly). Also, one charting factor; after a big advance for 1-2 trading days there is usually a little rest. Dont expect much down on Tuesday, but perhaps bouncing on the 20 dma. What may be going on the day preceeding the FOMC announcement is a tug-of-war of uncertianity and it appears greater this time. Further we do not have any robust tech earnings reports to prop up the market. Tomorrow looks like a continuation of Friday. Go America!

 

[nnuut]

I'm thinking there might be a -FV in the I tomorrow, due to the +FV Friday.!:worried:

 

[Steadygain]

I joined on 10/15 and am currently in 37th place with a return of 4.05%.

Brothers and sisters of the site - do not be fooled by the above comment. This man deserves a big round of appaluse as in reality he is in FIRST PLACE for the 2007 TSP Gains. With a 4.05% gain since 10/15 - he has already proven he can make substantial gains when the rest of us are losing. This convinces me he will remain in FIRST PLACE - and that is a very outstanding achievement.

 

[Uptrend]

Steadygain is kind. But each trader must prove himself. Like Birchtree says "markets respect no one".

After looking some more at the EFA chart I am convinced we are in the midst of a strong rise in the asian and european markets. We had two hammers in a row before the strong gap up on Friday. This chart pattern analysis jibberish means a very bullish uptrend is happening. The EFA has about 3.5% up to go before resistance is encountered.

Therefore I will do an IFT to I tomorrow effective cob for Tuesday Oct 30. I expect the USM to relax a little on that day. I expect to be back in the USM for Wednesday Oct 31; distribution TBD.

 

[RPM]

Therefore I will do an IFT to I tomorrow effective cob for Tuesday Oct 30. I expect the USM to relax a little on that day. I expect to be back in the USM for Wednesday Oct 31; distribution TBD.

Thanks for the analysis and the early warning. I am on PST and usually do not have enough time in the morning to read through the posts and make a decision. So I really appreciate this. Hope you'll continue for awhile

 

[Uptrend]

As you can see the markets opened strong, but then the buying action subsided. Why? Poor UBS Bank report, and oil weighing on everyones minds. Looks like Mexico cut 20% of their production due to storms in the gulf. Too me this looks like a testing of the brakes, but I don't think we will really see a market reversal until oil passes $100 a barrel. That is a physiological barrier.

Back to the market, the indices for USM are sitting just below the 20 dma. Lets hope they can get above them. Futures are backing down, but show close above. It appears to me that the USM are due for a pause tomorrow because of an inverted hammer formation appearing on the charts. That could disappear but the markets will need to make a run. Making IFT for 100% I tomorrow.

 

[CorMaGa34]

Uptrend,

Just want you to know how much I appreciate reading and learning from your comments and analysis. I am sure a lot of us are learning from you, and I thought it was about time I let you know about it. Thanks and keep the coming!

 

[Steadygain]

I have been getting a lot of private emails reflecting anger and resentment towards one of the Premium Site's advise - and asking for my opinion on what to do. I have no doubt UpTrend will have a huge following and I want to make something very clear: DO NOT BLAME HIM IF YOU LOSE ANY MONEY FOLLOWING HIS ADVISE. In my opinion he is very sharp and has thought things out - but each of us is wholly responsible for whatever action we decide to take with our own TSP account. The bottomline - if we do well with his advise then he deserves our thanks, but if any of us lose then we can only blame ourselves for making that decision.

 

[CorMaGa34]

Steadygain,

What I said to Uptrend was:

I appreciate reading and learning from your comments and analysis

That does not mean I am requesting or following his advice. I am responsible for my own actions, and never would blame anyone else for my IFTS!

 

[Steadygain]

I am following his advise - and I would imagine many others will - or have. My message was not for you dear friend or anyone who thinks like you, and I'm thrilled that others think like us as well. My message was only for those who want to blame someone - when something goes wrong.

 

[Steadygain]

Uptrend, it looks like you made a good call. Afterhours is already up with the I Fund so I'll go home with a good feeling. Thank you!

 

[Uptrend]

This is what I said yesterday:
"On to tomorrow. Looks like we all should have been 100% I, Nikkei is kicking, and Europe futures look good. USM S&P futures currently at 1544 which is above the 20 dma and that is a positive sign. However, I am becoming more negative on USM for Tuesday Oct 30. May swing to 100% 1 or go to a G/F hold. Expect to play 10/31 and possibly 11/1. More negative on 11/2".

Well, Nikkei did not pan out and is down due to profit taking tonight. I knew this was a medium risk trade. Still we have the variables of Europe markets, possible repricing (fair valuation) and the falling dollar so the Tuesday trade is not over. The charts show that the EFA is in a strong rise mode.

I was looking at the %+/- TSP daily gain/loss for the C and S funds. In the last 10 trading days the % +/- have been very close 80% of the time; even though it is not apparent at first glance because the share prices are different. Prior to Oct 16, S was the leader. So during earnings season C has equalized for the most part. (See Below for IFT).

Do not feel compelled to follow my advice. I have done very well this year, but it is impossible to win on every trade. I have a basic strategy you will see if you read my thread. My trading style for market timing includes:

50% Charts
20% Economic Reports
10% Politics/News Reports
20% Don't Be a Pig Rules

I will explain this strategy from time to time. I will also try and let you know in my opinion if the trade is low, medium or high risk. Many folks like models or a system. But human intelligence created these systems. Markets are complicated, with some information needed to make a decision that cannot be easily put into a computer system. It takes human tinkering. That is my take anyway.

Tomorrow I will make an IFT to be in 50% C/50% S for Wednesday. I consider the trade to be low risk and moderate to high gain. But remember all trades are a risk. and if you don't play, you can't win.

 

[RPM]

This is what I said yesterday:

Well, Nikkei did not pan out and is down due to profit taking tonight.

I think you spoke too soon. Nikkei 300 is now at 0, and the rest of Asian market seems to go up. 350Z made a great analysis on going to I for Wed as a hedge, did you have a chance to read that, and any thoughts on that strategy? I thought it was brilliant, but then if the USM goes down tomorrow, then how would the OSM start positive on Wed? Appreciate any thought from you. Thanks.