- Reaction score
- 961
Great news if you are an Avis Budget stockholder. I guess the question is why?
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tsptalk's Market Talk
- Thread starter tsptalk
- Start date
James48843
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 1,195
Here ya go:
AVIS - short
When hedge funds, and short sellers get in a stock war.
Two major investors, SRS Investment Management and Pentwater Capital Management, controlled over 108% of Avis Budget Group (CAR) stock as of April 2026, causing a massive short squeeze.
This effectively meant they owned more than the total outstanding shares when factoring in physical shares and synthetic positions like cash-settled swaps
Avis Budget Group (CAR) stock was up as much as 8% on Tuesday morning following a 23% surge on Monday. Over the past month, the stock is up over 500%.
What’s moving the stock: Avis appears to be facing a short squeeze.
The short interest in Avis as a percentage of shares outstanding currently stands at 25%, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. That figure represents the portion of shares that are currently sold short and not yet covered: A ratio above 10% is considered high, while one above 20% is considered extreme, with a high risk of a short squeeze.
Remember this, the stock market at times is legal betting.
#stockmarket #thebigshort
- Reaction score
- 3,036
Stocks are up after another ceasefire extension.
This could end up changing today, but it's interesting that the high this year on the S&P 500 is still made on April 17. That's inline with the average high date in the first half of midterm election years.
That's an average so the date is not in stone, but interesting.
Oil, gold, silver and cryptos are all up along with the stock market this morning.
Tesla reports earnings today after the closing bell.
This could end up changing today, but it's interesting that the high this year on the S&P 500 is still made on April 17. That's inline with the average high date in the first half of midterm election years.
That's an average so the date is not in stone, but interesting.
Oil, gold, silver and cryptos are all up along with the stock market this morning.
Tesla reports earnings today after the closing bell.
- Reaction score
- 3,036
- Reaction score
- 961
Well, if you bought at the beginning of April and sold today you still made money. If you sold yesterday a nice chunk of change.
- Reaction score
- 3,036
- Reaction score
- 961
It did recover and closed at 7108. But still a negative close. Flip the coin. What will happen today?
- Reaction score
- 3,036
Not a whole lot going on this morning with the indices mixed but mostly higher thanks to Intel's strong earnings report after the bell last night. That report is helping the semiconductor index to its 18th consecutive positive day.
The S&P 500 is up but it has been moving sideways for a week digesting some of its recent gains.
The VIX is back testing some support as it falls to where it was pre-Iran war. It is still fairly elevated given the S&P 500 trading near its all time highs.
The DOJ is dropping its investigation into Jerome Powell so Kevin Warsh's path to being the new Fed chair just got easier.
The S&P 500 is up but it has been moving sideways for a week digesting some of its recent gains.
The VIX is back testing some support as it falls to where it was pre-Iran war. It is still fairly elevated given the S&P 500 trading near its all time highs.
The DOJ is dropping its investigation into Jerome Powell so Kevin Warsh's path to being the new Fed chair just got easier.
- Reaction score
- 3,036
Not much happening in the stock market today. The indices are near the flat line in early trading.
This week does have a poor record during midterm election years
According to @WayneWhaley on X; Going back to 1930, during April 21-28 of a midterm election year, the S&P 500 has a losing record of 6 up and 18 down weeks for an average loss of 1.61% with the 1% moves 2 up and 13 down.
You probably saw the Avis chart (CAR) in the forum ere over the last week or so. The dramatic up and down of that stock has really impacted the Transportation Index, which is considered the market leader. Being a car rental company, I'm not sure how much that leadership will impact the rest of the market as it can do, but here's what's been happening.
What's coming up?
Mag 7 earnings this week. On Wednesday after the closing bell we get reports from: Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta Platforms (META), and Amazon (AMZN). And on Thursday Apple (AAPL) reports.
Fed meeting and interest decision on Wednesday, and the PCE Prices data on Thursday.
This week does have a poor record during midterm election years
According to @WayneWhaley on X; Going back to 1930, during April 21-28 of a midterm election year, the S&P 500 has a losing record of 6 up and 18 down weeks for an average loss of 1.61% with the 1% moves 2 up and 13 down.
You probably saw the Avis chart (CAR) in the forum ere over the last week or so. The dramatic up and down of that stock has really impacted the Transportation Index, which is considered the market leader. Being a car rental company, I'm not sure how much that leadership will impact the rest of the market as it can do, but here's what's been happening.
What's coming up?
Mag 7 earnings this week. On Wednesday after the closing bell we get reports from: Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta Platforms (META), and Amazon (AMZN). And on Thursday Apple (AAPL) reports.
Fed meeting and interest decision on Wednesday, and the PCE Prices data on Thursday.
- Reaction score
- 3,036
More wrangling over the Strait of Hormuz has oil up to $100 again. That's pushing yields and the dollar up, and stocks are feeling some pressure. Particularly the small caps.
Not too surprising this week
S-fund
Four Mag 7 earnings tomorrow after the bell, and the Fed on Wednesday. Powell's late meeting as Chair?
Not too surprising this week
S-fund
Four Mag 7 earnings tomorrow after the bell, and the Fed on Wednesday. Powell's late meeting as Chair?
- Reaction score
- 3,036
The stock market is doing a pretty good job of holding up this morning considering the price of oil is up over $4.50 to 104.65. Apparently the correlation of oil up, stocks down or oil down, stocks up, that we had been seeing for weeks, is no longer in fashion.
With four Mag 7 earnings coming out after the bell today, and a Fed announcement on rates at 2 PM ET, followed by Powell's final presser, there could be some nerves, but so far the market is hanging tough in anticipation.
With four Mag 7 earnings coming out after the bell today, and a Fed announcement on rates at 2 PM ET, followed by Powell's final presser, there could be some nerves, but so far the market is hanging tough in anticipation.
- Reaction score
- 3,036
On a day with the Dow up 750, and the S&P and Nasdaq up almost 1%, the Mag 7 stocks are down sharply - although off their lows.
So the question of whether the market can rally if Mag 7 doesn't participate, or if the market can rally with oil over $100 a barrel, may be getting answered.
Apple reports after the bell today.
So the question of whether the market can rally if Mag 7 doesn't participate, or if the market can rally with oil over $100 a barrel, may be getting answered.
Apple reports after the bell today.
Rod
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 469
Lee's latest call is 7300, then a 20% decline, then the rally of your lifetime.
Too specific?
Tom Lee seems to be a kind gentleman, but the S&P 500 @ 7,300 is a no-brainer. We'll likely be there, and then some, by the end of next week. Of course, when he wrote this on 22 Apr, the S&P opened around 7,100. But now, its RSI is @ 70.21. Therefore, a healthy pullback of at least 5% is in the cards.
Unless you're a day and/or swing trader like myself, perhaps it's time to, "Sell in May and go away"... and lock-in those +10% gains from April.
If we were still in the good ole days of unlimited IFT's, my move would be to (G) as we ring in May in order to get a pulse on it.
quabit
Market Tracker
- Reaction score
- 30
Oh the good ol days. I remember them. Now I hold on to the 2 measly trades like they are made of gold. Now timing became trickier or you might burn through both quickly and just be stuck. It would even be better if any trade into the G fund didn't count as one the two trades. For me it makes me timid to pull the trigger when things go crazy like they did in Apr and I end up missing runs or getting in late. I keep telling myself there will be more chances so just be patient. I have plenty to last my life even sitting in the G but there is always FOMO mostly when you are just sitting in the G.Tom Lee seems to be a kind gentleman, but the S&P 500 @ 7,300 is a no-brainer. We'll likely be there, and then some, by the end of next week. Of course, when he wrote this on 22 Apr, the S&P opened around 7,100. But now, its RSI is @ 70.21. Therefore, a healthy pullback of at least 5% is in the cards.
Unless you're a day and/or swing trader like myself, perhaps it's time to, "Sell in May and go away"... and lock-in those +10% gains from April.
If we were still in the good ole days of unlimited IFT's, my move would be to (G) as we ring in May in order to get a pulse on it.
quabit
Market Tracker
- Reaction score
- 30
Tom Lee seems to be a kind gentleman, but the S&P 500 @ 7,300 is a no-brainer. We'll likely be there, and then some, by the end of next week. Of course, when he wrote this on 22 Apr, the S&P opened around 7,100. But now, its RSI is @ 70.21. Therefore, a healthy pullback of at least 5% is in the cards.
Unless you're a day and/or swing trader like myself, perhaps it's time to, "Sell in May and go away"... and lock-in those +10% gains from April.
If we were still in the good ole days of unlimited IFT's, my move would be to (G) as we ring in May in order to get a pulse on it.
quabit
Market Tracker
- Reaction score
- 30
Thanks for the correction. I thought for sure he had said 7300 for the end of year.Lee's latest call is 7300, then a 20% decline, then the rally of your lifetime.
Too specific?
- Reaction score
- 961
Since we are stuck with 2 IFT's it would be nice if anytime you went to "G" it didn't count against your 2 IFT's. So, if your first move of the month is to "G" from either "F, C, S, or I" it wouldn't count against your 2 IFT's.
