tsptalk's Market Talk

[Boghie]

With a 17% drop in oil I'm sure gas prices will drop accordingly.

They will, but not really for that reason.

In the United States, we really don't care about the Persian Gulf. Eventually, the speculation would have washed out and the price of our gas would have declined.

This is where the refining companies make the big bank. It isn't when the price of oil goes up. It will be a 'sticky' decline.

 

[nasa1974]

With a 17% drop in oil I'm sure gas prices will drop accordingly.

It's always a quick increase and a very slow decrease.

 

[weatherweenie]

They will, but not really for that reason.

In the United States, we really don't care about the Persian Gulf. Eventually, the speculation would have washed out and the price of our gas would have declined.

This is where the refining companies make the big bank. It isn't when the price of oil goes up. It will be a 'sticky' decline.

If true, why did gas prices spike in the US? Locally our prices went from $2.69 to $4.09.

 

[Boghie]

If true, why did gas prices spike in the US? Locally our prices went from $2.69 to $4.09.

Largely because of speculation and panic. We only get 3% of our oil through the Straight.

I kinda doubt that US/Canadian/Mexican oil pumpers started selling oil to China because of this.

For the Indians/Europe/China types this was a real infringement on their ability to purchase legitimate oil from the oil ticks as well as purchase re-flagged sanctioned Iranian oil. I mean, China didn't sign off on the sanctions - so they at least are not duplicious. The Euros, not so much. They love their Russian gas and their re-flagged oil...

 

[weatherweenie]

Largely because of speculation and panic. We only get 3% of our oil through the Straight.

I kinda doubt that US/Canadian/Mexican oil pumpers started selling oil to China because of this.

For the Indians/Europe/China types this was a real infringement on their ability to purchase legitimate oil from the oil ticks as well as purchase re-flagged sanctioned Iranian oil. I mean, China didn't sign off on the sanctions - so they at least are not duplicious. The Euros, not so much. They love their Russian gas and their re-flagged oil...

Point is, it doesn't matter the why, it matters that it happened. At the end of the day, the consumer is the one who pays the price.

 

[tsptalk]

We had a big gap up open, and gaps tend to get filled. It is rare that they don't, but not always -- or not always on a short-term timeframe.

Also, this morning's high so far filled in one of those stealth gaps from earlier in March.



2025 was an example where we had two gaps opened off the tariff tantrum lows that are still open.

 

[rdodson]

We had a big gap up open, and gaps tend to get filled. It is rare that they don't, but not always -- or not always on a short-term timeframe.

Also, this morning's high so far filled in one of those stealth gaps from earlier in March.

View attachment 72324

2025 was an example where we had two gaps opened off the tariff tantrum lows that are still open.

Now that you mentioned it we are doomed in the future? Soon?

 

[tsptalk]

The price of oil is up 7.50 / barrel this morning, regaining a chunk of yesterday's losses, and this is helping put some pressure on some of the market indices.

Yields are up on the PCE Pricing data, which came in higher than expected.

The S&P 500 is down modestly, consider the large gains yesterday. It's churning from the pressure of higher oil prices.



The Transports are up slightly but struggling to hold onto a breakout to new highs again.

Given the geopolitical headlines this morning, the indices are holding fairly well, I'd say. Plenty of time for that to change, however.

 

[tsptalk]

Stocks are moving modestly higher this morning, with the S&P 500 trying to lock in a 2nd week of gains, and an 8th consecutive daily gain.

Oil is down slightly this morning, and well off the recent highs as investors tip toe there way through the headlines that could change at any minute. The Nasdaq is leading the major indices on the upside.

Many are under-invested and find them selves needing to buy each dip as to not fall too far behind the returns of the indices.

After lagging on Thursday, the I-fund is leading the TSP funds this morning as it negotiates its way through a minefield of large open gaps.



The dollar is down but yields are up slightly after a hot March CPI report which, because of the spike in oil prices last month, was mostly expected.

The VIX shows that the temperature for volatility has come down, but that 200-day average often holds as support.