tsptalk's Market Talk

[tsptalk]

Higher yields and higher oil prices are squeezing the the stock market.

The S&P 500 is retesting the bottom of the range between the green and purple moving averages. Support has been strong here, but it looks vulnerable.



Strong jobs data and higher oil prices are helping lift yields.



The dollar is rallying, helping put pressure on prices, particularly the I-fund.

The indices are coiling up for a big move in one direction or the other. Gold and bonds are down so there is not a rush to get into those safe havens.

 

[tsptalk]

The jobs report was a big swing and a miss, and that was just the topper to the screaming price of oil which is up another 9% this morning.




The S&P 500 (C-fund) did a retest of Tuesday's low. That's a valid reason to go down - a retest, and if it hold it means something. Otherwise this will be a breakdown and the chart will have deteriorated, but watch the close for clues, which doesn't help us make any decisions this morning.

The DWCPF (S-fund) broke down from the head and shoulder pattern we've been highlighting. Getting back above 2500 before the close would be big, but as of now, that is a breakdown.



The ACWX (I-fund) is bouncing off its opening lows, and also retesting this week's low. It's not a pretty chart at this point, and it may take stable oil prices to fix it.

 

[tsptalk]

Bull flag, or look out below?

 

[JTH]

Bull flag, or look out below?

View attachment 71923

Trying to think of a time in my life when I heard someone say "Buy the Airlines"

Like nothing good ever happens to Airlines, any of them.
Delta dropped -23% and American Airlines nearly -28% over the past 17 sessions.

 

[tsptalk]

 

[tsptalk]

Stocks are down again to start the new week, but well off the morning lows, and the hard hit overnight futures prices. Oil was trading near 120 a barrel overnight, but it is closer to 100 this morning, and that is helping to ease some tension.

Yields and the dollar are up slightly and nothing concerning as the bond market continues to play this gingerly rather than as a safety play. Gold is also down, so investors are not running there either.

 

[tsptalk]

We got some strong housing data but it's all about oil right now, and it is falling this morning and stocks are trying to gain some traction after a weak open. All three TSP stock funds just ticked into positive territory. Volatility is high and things could change quickly, but right now traders and algo program trading are triggering off of the direction of oil prices.

Yields and the dollar are down, giving some assistance to the S and I-funds.




With the situation in the Strait of Hormuz still active, I suspect there will be headlines pulling the market in both directions in the short-term, but right now we are seeing a bid for stocks.

 

[tsptalk]

Stocks are flat and holding up despite the price of oil moving up this morning. We even had the IEA (International Energy Agency.) announce an historic oil reserve release, but that didn't ease prices (yet?)

The stock market futures were up more meaningfully overnight and the day time cash market often matches that at some point in the day so I look for some kind of rally, but there is plenty of resistance overhead to keep a lid on any gains without some kind of news to break the stalemate.




Despite a benign CPI inflation report, yields are popping higher this morning. The February CPI data does not take the rising price of oil into consideration since that spike started in March.




Gold and silver are down, and bitcoin is up modestly.