tsptalk's Market Talk

[tsptalk]

Stocks are mixed again as the Dow is down 500-points, thanks to a 20% decline in UNG. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are up nicely again. but small caps are flat.

The S-fund's DWCPF is sitting right on support, but with the Fed meeting and Mag 7 earnings tomorrow, and a possible shutdown coming Friday, investors may not be eager to buy this interest rate sensitive sector yet.




The I-fund is exploding again with the dollar in free fall recently.




Japan's 10-year was up again last night, and I'm surprised our market are doing so well with this moving up again.




We have gold and silver down, oil up, and bitcoin flat.

 

[tsptalk]

Stocks opened higher, but as the dollar and yields moved up, the indices moved closer to flat as we head into this afternoon's FOMC meeting. It seems quiet before the Fed storm. Mag 7 earnings after the bell should also shake things up.



Gold, silver, and oil are up. Bitcoin is flat. Japan's 10-year yield fell last night.

 

[tsptalk]

I wonder how many happened on a Fed meeting day?

And, as we have found out, anytime you recognize a pattern, it seems to end.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2016522041554534772

 

[tsptalk]

After a busy Fed day and major earnings reports after hours last night, we have some volatility this morning.




The S&P 500 is pulling back from the double top and the top of its trading channel. Technically it is fine, but there is some room if it is heading to the bottom of the channel. It also may still be forming the Wyckoff Distribution pattern, although the new high yesterday may have change that. Close enough?



The small caps of the S-fund look to be falling below more support this morning. Buying opportunity, or is the gap fill near 2525 coming? Maybe just a test of the 50-day average?

Oh, and the record of a positive days following hitting a 1000 milestone (see prior post) is in jeopardy.

Oil is up on Iran concerns. Gold, silver and bitcoin are down.

 

[tsptalk]

If you were watching the futures last night, you were probably a little surprised this morning to see the indices positive. I didn't see just how low they went, but I did see the S&P 500 futures down more than 80 points on Sunday evening.

Fast forward about 12 hours and the S&P 500 is within about about 10 points of a new all time closing high.




The dollar was in free fall recently, but has since come roaring back. Technically, it has some work to do as it negotiates the moving averages, but long term...



... there is tremendous support in the 96 area as the monthly chart's 200-day average is right there, along with the rising support line going back to 2011.

And recent inflation data is confirming the dollar could firm up here.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2018147672364818940

 

[nasa1974]

Does it feel like there might be a disturbance in the Force?

 

[tsptalk]

Stocks opened higher on Tuesday but as the morning wears on, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have turned negative. Small caps and the I-fund are holding gains for now, and the S&P 500 is likely just retracing yesterday's candlestick and will look for support to hold again.




The Nasdaq however is being held down by more losses from Nvidia, and Microsoft is also down 2%, weighing heavily on the S&P and Nasdaq.

It seems like a lot of technical movement right now. The big tech stocks are putting pressure on the large cap indices but otherwise breadth is quite positive on the NYSE.

Bond yields are up, as is oil. Gold and silver are both up big as well, while bitcoin is mostly flat.

 

[weatherweenie]

Transportation index is up 2%.

 

[tsptalk]

Small caps and the I-fund are hanging onto small gains this morning, while the Nasdaq is down 1% so the bleeding in tech continues. That bleeding has the S&P 500 mostly flat in early trading despite advancing stocks outnumbering declining by a 16 to 10 ratio on the NYSE.

The dollar and 10-year yield are both up, but not causing much trouble.

Gold and silver are both up again, while bitcoin is down. Oil is flat.

Groundhog day is still going on in the Transports. As weatherweenie pointed out yesterday, the Transportation Index is leading again today with a third straight 2% gain.