tsptalk's Market Talk

[weatherweenie]

Private payrolls increased just 37,000 In May, below the 60,000 in April and the Dow Jones forecast for 110,000. It was the lowest monthly job total from the ADP count since March 2023.

 

[James48843]

Private payrolls increased just 37,000 In May, below the 60,000 in April and the Dow Jones forecast for 110,000. It was the lowest monthly job total from the ADP count since March 2023.

The calm before the storm. People starting to look at the impact of trade, tariffs, and the huge tax hike tariffs represent, and hesitating to hire.

Another two months and the bottom will fall out? Or will it be a side sideways?

 

[tsptalk]

The forecast for tomorrow's May jobs report is about 125K, down from April's 177K.

If the labor market starts to wobble, the Fed will have their cue to start cutting rates.

 

[tsptalk]

Stocks are up this morning despite the weaker jobs data, but as I mentioned above, the monthly jobs data will be out tomorrow and estimates are looking for a gain of 125,000 jobs with an unemployment rate of 4.2% - no change from April.

The S&P 500 is ticking higher again, and making a new multi-month high and right now looking to close above the recent intraday highs, and it continues to make its way up just below the old broken support line, turned resistance, but that resistance is rising.



Yields are down this morning with the help of that weaker employment data and its trying to close below the 50-day EMA for the first time in a month.

Oil and gold are up modestly this morning, and bitcoin is giving back much of Tuesday's gains.

 

[tsptalk]

It started out as a slow, tentative morning for stocks as investors wait in anticipation for the results of the Trump and Xi trade negotiations and Friday's important jobs report.

Dip buyers showed up early but there's a long way to go in the trading day and there does seem to be some anxiety in the air.

The jobless claim came in a little higher than expected but the continuous claims fell from last month. Yields seem to be a little volatile on that data as the 10-year fell initially, but found support and bounced back.



I'll be on the road this afternoon but will check my email this evening and respond to any inquiries asap, or TommyIV will take care of it..

 

[weatherweenie]

Nonfarm payrolls rose 139,000 for the month, above the muted Dow Jones estimate for 125,000 and the downwardly revised 147,000 that the U.S. economy added in April.

 

[tsptalk]

Beat estimates by 14K. Prior month revised down 30K.

I know this is rearview mirror data already, but these negative revisions have become so routine that they should probably wait a month before releasing these reports?