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tsptalk's Market Talk
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James48843
Well-known member
Scratching my head. I don’t think the markets are thinking about tariffs in April. Those are going to be real, and painful, and stocks will have to recognize that.
We're seeing some decent follow through action for a market that was chopping back and forth last week and couldn't hold a gain. The draw of Monday's gap open should be there, but the FOMO underinvested tend to buy the dips and keep them shallow if they think they've missed the boat.
Don't forget the rebound was due, but the rally could run out of steam and start a new leg again at any time (later today, next month, etc.) . We saw plenty of large rallies during the 2022 bear while the market trended lower.
We may have put in a low, maybe not, but now it's a matter of watching how the indices handle various level of overhead resistance, and how the market handles bad news. Does it collapse or hold steady, etc.?
Don't forget the rebound was due, but the rally could run out of steam and start a new leg again at any time (later today, next month, etc.) . We saw plenty of large rallies during the 2022 bear while the market trended lower.
We may have put in a low, maybe not, but now it's a matter of watching how the indices handle various level of overhead resistance, and how the market handles bad news. Does it collapse or hold steady, etc.?
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Stocks are pulling back after the 3-day rally. Some strong Durable Goods data is sending yields up, but once again the 10-year is banging its head again the top of that bear flag and the 50-day average, which typically would be a bearish formation for yields.
The S&P 500 and small caps are down on the day with the recently hot again tech stocks lagging today.
There is an open gap near 5660 but the 200-day EMA would be tested as support first near 5704. The question is whether this is a pause in the relief rally -- or a peak?
Inflation data on Friday, and the April 2 tariffs loom as the market digests those recent gains.
The S&P 500 and small caps are down on the day with the recently hot again tech stocks lagging today.
There is an open gap near 5660 but the 200-day EMA would be tested as support first near 5704. The question is whether this is a pause in the relief rally -- or a peak?
Inflation data on Friday, and the April 2 tariffs loom as the market digests those recent gains.
We have a nice little reversal here as the indices tested the bottom of their open gaps (see prior post) and so far have been successful in holding.
The new auto tariffs have been causing some concern this morning. You can see what's happening to a stock like Ford, for example. It made new highs at one point this morning, but now it has made an outside day pattern. Where this closes will be telling as it will show us if it will be a positive or negative outside day, and right now it looks like it could go either way. Below 10 would be bad, above 10.30 would actually be pretty bullish. Outside reversals can be direction changers if they go against the trend.
Ford isn't a major factor for the stock market in general but it will give us an idea of the effects of the tariffs on business as they get implemented on various industries.
The new auto tariffs have been causing some concern this morning. You can see what's happening to a stock like Ford, for example. It made new highs at one point this morning, but now it has made an outside day pattern. Where this closes will be telling as it will show us if it will be a positive or negative outside day, and right now it looks like it could go either way. Below 10 would be bad, above 10.30 would actually be pretty bullish. Outside reversals can be direction changers if they go against the trend.
Ford isn't a major factor for the stock market in general but it will give us an idea of the effects of the tariffs on business as they get implemented on various industries.
The PCE Prices inflation data came in higher than expected, or did it? The numbers were in fact higher than estimates but instead of rallying, bond yields are falling sharply as if the data was soft, helping the F-fund to a nice gain this morning.
However, that isn't helping the stock market which doesn't seem to like the numbers and the buy the dip crew is sitting on their hands this morning allowing the SP 500 to make a move toward a test of the prior lows.
At this point it becomes technical as those who may have sold the lows earlier this month might get an opportunity to buy back in at those prices (this is why double bottoms often hold), but if the S&P makes a new low it could cause a "get me out at any price" mentality and that's where you often get capitulation (I give up) selling, which can be ugly, but the selling eventually exhausts itself and snaps back. Either that or the correction will start to morph into a bear market.
Right now there's only a 16% chance of an interest rate cut at the May FOMC meeting, but a 95% chance of at least one cut at or before the September meeting.
However, that isn't helping the stock market which doesn't seem to like the numbers and the buy the dip crew is sitting on their hands this morning allowing the SP 500 to make a move toward a test of the prior lows.
At this point it becomes technical as those who may have sold the lows earlier this month might get an opportunity to buy back in at those prices (this is why double bottoms often hold), but if the S&P makes a new low it could cause a "get me out at any price" mentality and that's where you often get capitulation (I give up) selling, which can be ugly, but the selling eventually exhausts itself and snaps back. Either that or the correction will start to morph into a bear market.
Right now there's only a 16% chance of an interest rate cut at the May FOMC meeting, but a 95% chance of at least one cut at or before the September meeting.
The test of the lows is upon us, but so far it has been bouncing back. It doesn't feel like a capitulation yet, but to be honest I was working on a technical issue at the lows of the morning and I may have missed any panicky action that would cause a low.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) is trying to bounce back and hold that key moving average that held on the prior low. The opening gaps are closing and if and when they do close, the bears may give it another shot.
The bounce back may have started too early so it probably means one of two things with little in between. One is that the rally fails and we head toward the lows again by the close. Two, that was a capitulation near the open and the we close near the highs of the day with a bottom possibly completed. With emotions so high, it probably won't be just a run of the mill down day - but rather one of those two scenarios.
Oil, Gold, and bitcoin are all up this morning, as are bonds as yields are down again, and the 10-year Treasury Yield is testing the bottom of its bear flag.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) is trying to bounce back and hold that key moving average that held on the prior low. The opening gaps are closing and if and when they do close, the bears may give it another shot.
The bounce back may have started too early so it probably means one of two things with little in between. One is that the rally fails and we head toward the lows again by the close. Two, that was a capitulation near the open and the we close near the highs of the day with a bottom possibly completed. With emotions so high, it probably won't be just a run of the mill down day - but rather one of those two scenarios.
Oil, Gold, and bitcoin are all up this morning, as are bonds as yields are down again, and the 10-year Treasury Yield is testing the bottom of its bear flag.
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