WorkFE
Well-known member
we will know in 90 minutes
-
The Forum works well on MOBILE devices without an app: Just go to: https://forum.tsptalk.com
-
Please read our AutoTracker policy on the IFT deadline and remaining active. Thanks!
-
$ - Premium Service Content (Info) | AutoTracker Monthly Winners | Is Gmail et al, Blocking Our emails?
Find us on: Facebook & X | Posting Copyrighted Material
-
Join the TSP Talk AutoTracker: How to Get Started | Login | Main AutoTracker Page
-
The Forum works well on MOBILE devices without an app: Just go to: https://forum.tsptalk.com ...
Or you can now use TapaTalk again!
tsptalk's Market Talk
- Thread starter tsptalk
- Start date
The S&P is down testing Friday's lows to start the new week. It is back below the 200-day EMA, which is discouraging considering the positive reversal on Friday, but retests aren't uncommon. The break below the 200-EMA can be cleansing as it shakes out weaker holding bulls who are usually the first to buy back in on a reversal, but it's also a warning sign if we don't see stabilization soon afterward. We had two in 2023, and 2022's bear market (not shown) is one that failed.
Yields are down as the economic picture is still in question.
Oil, gold, and bitcoin are all down this morning. Asian stocks were mostly positive but Europe is showing red as their trading days wind down.
Yields are down as the economic picture is still in question.
Oil, gold, and bitcoin are all down this morning. Asian stocks were mostly positive but Europe is showing red as their trading days wind down.
JTH
Well-known member
Also some potential to close below the 12-Month MA. The last time we pierced this Ma was during -10.92% Oct-2023 correction.
Eerily similar to the 2021-Peak rollover.
Transports, Equal-Weighted SPX, IWM all peaked in Nov-2024 (just like they did in Nov-2021), Seems this time the Large caps & bitcoin held on bit longer.
I thought we'd see single digits on a day like today.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed
Source: https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed
More of the same this morning as the S&P 500 tests yesterday's low. Just when it looks ripe for a reversal, more news comes out to scare away buyers.
Yields and bond prices are fairly flat so that to me says it's more emotional on the stock market side.
It is Tuesday and while we do tend to see reversals on Tuesday, having them start too early in the day makes them vulnerable. I am paying attention to the action in the final 30-60 minutes of trading when institution investors do most of their trading.
Oil, gold, and bitcoin are up with the dollar down this morning.
Business tax returns are due this week so I'll be buried with that today to help take my mind off this crazy market for a few hours.
Yields and bond prices are fairly flat so that to me says it's more emotional on the stock market side.
It is Tuesday and while we do tend to see reversals on Tuesday, having them start too early in the day makes them vulnerable. I am paying attention to the action in the final 30-60 minutes of trading when institution investors do most of their trading.
Oil, gold, and bitcoin are up with the dollar down this morning.
Business tax returns are due this week so I'll be buried with that today to help take my mind off this crazy market for a few hours.
Stocks gap up big after the CPI report showed inflation easing, and congress also got a stop gap spending bill passed last night, but the "sell the rips" came in right away and closed the gap.
It looks like it could be another roller coaster kind of day.
We have an oversold market that should show us some relief, but beware of markets that fall on good news.
The charts look poor but at some point the selling will be exhausted and not only will there be bargain hunting, but the short will start to cover, adding fuel to a rebound. The volatility will continue.
Oil is up big, gold is up modestly, and bitcoin is down.
It looks like it could be another roller coaster kind of day.
We have an oversold market that should show us some relief, but beware of markets that fall on good news.
The charts look poor but at some point the selling will be exhausted and not only will there be bargain hunting, but the short will start to cover, adding fuel to a rebound. The volatility will continue.
Oil is up big, gold is up modestly, and bitcoin is down.
... And down again. The indices are down tested recent lows again after yesterday's lackluster, low volume rally.
Yields and the dollar are up despite another better than expected inflation report (PPI) although the 10-year T-note still remains in a downtrend while it looks to fill that open gap.
Not much news except more tariffs threat, but the market seems to be trying to price in all of the changes.
Oil is down, gold is up and bitcoin is down.
Yields and the dollar are up despite another better than expected inflation report (PPI) although the 10-year T-note still remains in a downtrend while it looks to fill that open gap.
Not much news except more tariffs threat, but the market seems to be trying to price in all of the changes.
Oil is down, gold is up and bitcoin is down.
The market has been chopping near the lows all week. This morning we have a rally retracing yesterday' losses, but there is plenty of resistance after the recent decline. Unless something changes, like the spending bill, tariffs, something with the Fed, etc., it will be tougher for the market to do much more than test that resistance, but once some of those barriers are broken, we could see a substantial rally.
Consumer Confidence came in lower than expected, but I think that was actually expected.
The obvious turmoil surrounding the financial markets has a way of doing that. Extreme lack of confidence can be a bullish contrarian indicator.
Here are some highlights from that report:
The preliminary University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for March dropped to 57.9 (Briefing.com consensus 65.6) from the final reading of 64.7 for February, marking the third straight drop in sentiment.
In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 79.4.
Key Factors
The Current Economic Conditions Index dropped to 63.5 from 65.7. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 82.5.
The Index of Consumer Expectations decreased to 54.2 from 64.0. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 77.4.
Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped from 4.3% to 4.9% -- the highest since November 2022.
Long-run inflation expectations increased from 3.5% to 3.9% -- the largest month-over-month increase since 1993.
Consumer Confidence came in lower than expected, but I think that was actually expected.
The obvious turmoil surrounding the financial markets has a way of doing that. Extreme lack of confidence can be a bullish contrarian indicator.Here are some highlights from that report:
The preliminary University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for March dropped to 57.9 (Briefing.com consensus 65.6) from the final reading of 64.7 for February, marking the third straight drop in sentiment.
In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 79.4.
Key Factors
The Current Economic Conditions Index dropped to 63.5 from 65.7. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 82.5.
The Index of Consumer Expectations decreased to 54.2 from 64.0. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 77.4.
Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped from 4.3% to 4.9% -- the highest since November 2022.
Long-run inflation expectations increased from 3.5% to 3.9% -- the largest month-over-month increase since 1993.
Last edited:
Stocks got off to a good start this morning, but it has been a little choppy rather than a runaway, gap up, type of Monday, which you often see after a big rally on a Friday.
Yields and the dollar are down in front of this busy week which will be highlighted by the Fed's FOMC meeting and policy statement on Wednesday.
The market is still dealing with the new policies, particularly tariffs and how they might impact business, but it has had a several weeks to digest the changes and much of it may be priced in.
I had mentioned in Monday's commentary that the I fund was forming a bearish looking diamond formation, but...
Source: https://www.strike.money/technical-analysis/diamond-pattern
.. already this morning it is breaking to the upside of that diamond - at t least to start the day, so it is acting more like a bull flag.
Small caps are leading.
Oil, gold, and bitcoin are all up modestly this morning.
Yields and the dollar are down in front of this busy week which will be highlighted by the Fed's FOMC meeting and policy statement on Wednesday.
The market is still dealing with the new policies, particularly tariffs and how they might impact business, but it has had a several weeks to digest the changes and much of it may be priced in.
I had mentioned in Monday's commentary that the I fund was forming a bearish looking diamond formation, but...
Source: https://www.strike.money/technical-analysis/diamond-pattern
.. already this morning it is breaking to the upside of that diamond - at t least to start the day, so it is acting more like a bull flag.
Small caps are leading.
Oil, gold, and bitcoin are all up modestly this morning.
Last edited:
So far it has been a failure at the 200-day EMA and potentially a good old fashion retest of the lows may be next.
It's not required as we have seen "V" bottoms in recent years that tore right through resistance, but as recent as December we saw a pullback and a couple of tests. And notice in 2022, during the bear market, not all tests passed.
But there is a pattern of failed tests that do market short-term lows tests. So it's rally, retest, fail, reverse.
The Fed wraps up their FOMC meeting tomorrow. Let's see what they can trigger - a double bottom? A breakdown and reversal? Another leg lower? Inflation reports recently have been better, but how stick is it going to be?
Oil and gold are up. Bitcoin is down.
It's not required as we have seen "V" bottoms in recent years that tore right through resistance, but as recent as December we saw a pullback and a couple of tests. And notice in 2022, during the bear market, not all tests passed.
But there is a pattern of failed tests that do market short-term lows tests. So it's rally, retest, fail, reverse.
The Fed wraps up their FOMC meeting tomorrow. Let's see what they can trigger - a double bottom? A breakdown and reversal? Another leg lower? Inflation reports recently have been better, but how stick is it going to be?
Oil and gold are up. Bitcoin is down.
One thing I am noticing that worries me - probably not what you'd think...
As much as many indicators are flashing extreme bearishness, which tends to be bullish, on places like X most people are posting how normal 10% corrections are, and not to worry. Even my own complacency about this decline is a red flag. That's not the sentiment you see at bottoms, so it's a little concerning.
Of course, now that I'm concerned, it is more bullish.
As much as many indicators are flashing extreme bearishness, which tends to be bullish, on places like X most people are posting how normal 10% corrections are, and not to worry. Even my own complacency about this decline is a red flag. That's not the sentiment you see at bottoms, so it's a little concerning.
Of course, now that I'm concerned, it is more bullish.
James48843
Well-known member
Nowhere near the bottom. Just first leg. My 2 cents.
Stocks are off to a good start on this FOMC Wednesday morning. As I write this the S&P 500 is testing yesterday's highs and the S-fund's chart is above its high from yesterday, but still buried below the key moving averages.
The I-fund is lagging in early trading as the dollar (UUP) is getting another pop off its stubborn 200-day EMA.
Oil and gold are flat and bitcoin is trying to bounce back into the mid-80's.
The fireworks should start around 2PM ET when the policy statement is released.
The I-fund is lagging in early trading as the dollar (UUP) is getting another pop off its stubborn 200-day EMA.
Oil and gold are flat and bitcoin is trying to bounce back into the mid-80's.
The fireworks should start around 2PM ET when the policy statement is released.
Attachments
Stocks opened lower but dip buyers showed up right away pushing the major indices into positive territory.
The I-fund is lagging after another early rally in the dollar. The double top is in play here as ACWX trades below 57.
The 200-day EMA continues to hold on the dollar (UUP) chart.
Yields are down sharply helping the F-fund to a nice early gain.
Oil and bitcoin are up, while gold is flat.
The I-fund is lagging after another early rally in the dollar. The double top is in play here as ACWX trades below 57.
The 200-day EMA continues to hold on the dollar (UUP) chart.
Yields are down sharply helping the F-fund to a nice early gain.
Oil and bitcoin are up, while gold is flat.
Last edited:
A nice gap up on a Monday morning took the S&P 500 over its 200 day EMA. These Monday gaps aren't easy to trust and any attempt to fill the gap would push it back below the average so the next few hours will be telling. The 200 day SMA (simple average) is still an issue. See chart.
Yields are up, and as Rick Santelli described it - stocks up with yields up is like the good old days when the market was not reliant on falling rates to rally.
So, is it a gap and go or a fake out? Place your bets!
Gold, Oil, and bitcoin are all up this morning.
Yields are up, and as Rick Santelli described it - stocks up with yields up is like the good old days when the market was not reliant on falling rates to rally.
So, is it a gap and go or a fake out? Place your bets!
Gold, Oil, and bitcoin are all up this morning.
Last edited:
Similar threads
- Article
