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The dollar's recent rally could have something to do with bonds selling off, although if the AGG chart is correct, I don;t know what happened there.

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[h=1]U.S. stocks recovered some of their steep losses on Thursday after the Federal Reserve announced extraordinary funding actions to ease strained capital markets in the wake of the coronavirus sell-off.[/h]
 
So where are investors putting their money?
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US dollars. The currency gold bugs have been calling fiat for years.

I got caught in the F collapse since I use it as my bond allocation. With G fund no better than a checking account that loses purchasing power due to inflation over time, F fund always seemed like a good choice for a general bond fund as long as interest rates were going down. I'm guessing at this point, ZIRP is priced in.

Bonds tanked in a major way in 2008 and rebounded due to never imagined global monetary intervention. There's just too much debt to buy nowadays and there will have to be defaults for the system to function again.

Some things guaranteed to come next: corporate defaults, bankruptcies and dividend cuts. Think BA, HAL, CCL, RIG, any random airline stock that will go bankrupt. Even DIS stock cratering and they haven't closed yet because they can't afford to. (UPDATE: DIS just closed)

Ouch to say the least unless one has been shorting.
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Easy money on the downside has already been made. More risk selling short at this point than going long.
 
AGG is crashing, down -4% wow, never seen anything like it. To me, that's more surprising than the SPX crashing, what's going on there? I was in the TSP20 fund since Feb and so managed to only take a small hit, but i think I'm going to the G fund tomorrow. The 10 year support broke today and if it doesn't bounce back and hold it tomorrow, this can get MUCH worse.

There's no question about it now, officially in a bear market.
 
Trump Tweet::

I will be having a news conference today at 3:00 P.M., The White House. Topic: CoronaVirus!
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So it could be a wild final hour of trading today.
 
Edited since I can't delete in the interest of not being too political, thought better of it after I posted....
 
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Oh well couldn’t be any worse than other night. I suppose he’ll announce whatever bipartisan plan they worked out.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
tsptalk said:
I don't know. I think it would be a very long, uncomfortable weekend waiting for the reaction on Monday. :eek5:
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Looks like the market liked what they saw from Trump's press conference. I got myself a new Cadillac!
I'm not going to think about my new Ford Pickup and Lexus RX that rolled off the cliff! :eek:
 
The I-fund price should be interesting. Did anyone make an IFT to the I-fund today - for Monday. That could pay off big if the TSP doesn't give enough fair value adjustment today.
 
Bullitt said:
Some things guaranteed to come next: corporate defaults, bankruptcies and dividend cuts. Think BA, HAL, CCL, RIG, any random airline stock that will go bankrupt. Even DIS stock cratering and they haven't closed yet because they can't afford to.
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When do these numbers rollout?
 
tsptalk said:
The I-fund price should be interesting. Did anyone make an IFT to the I-fund today - for Monday. That could pay off big if the TSP doesn't give enough fair value adjustment today.
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Hi Tom! :) I see that several people did enter I fund, but I wondered why??? Although the dollar was up Friday nearly 4%, I understand this would make an I fund buy-in a bargain--right? Hopefully I am thinking correctly on that.

But even so, if Corona virus is invading all of Europe, I am thinking a buy-in to I fund is a high risk (around 60% is based on stocks in Europe). Then to get out of I fund, would need to wait to move back to US dollars when the dollar is weaker and who knows what happens in next couple weeks. Do you think there would be money to be made with a quick 1-2 day buy-in to I Fund??? Just wondering... cuz I was scratching my head when I saw those entries....I guess I need to read up on fair value as I am not sure I really understand.... if anyone has ideas on the reasoning for entering, please share! :)
 
Hi DBA. I'm not recommending the I-fund at all - or not recommending it. I was thinking along the lines of the TSP and how they have to put a price on it on day where the overseas markets were long closed for the day, and the U.S. market rallied 1500 points in the final 20 minutes of trading on Friday.

Why people did move into the I-fund could be because of that delay after stocks rallied in the morning here, but I'm not sure. When stocks rally the more aggressive funds like S and I can move faster, as we know, so that could be another angle if they thought a bounce was coming. Dangerous, but I get it.

I hope that made sense. :)
 
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