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The 20-day EMA was taken out this morning, but it's early and we've seen crazy reversals lately. So far this is nothing, as far as a dip below recent highs, but the open gap near 2835 is still out there as a potential target if this pullback is going to continue.
Two birds with one stone...
The open gap from March was filled this morning, and now this reversal up filled this morning's gap - that can't even be seen now but was between the open near 2860 and yesterday's low of 2873. Now what?
There is still a very small open gap down near 2740.
The 10-year yield is at 2.382% right now, up off the morning lows after bouncing off the March low. A breakdown would put it to levels not seen since 2017, but there's a long way to go before it hits the 2016 lows. Just an interesting look. I had forgotten they had gotten so low, and the chart looks bearish, making the F-fund a possible good play in the coming months if someone doesn't like stocks right now.
It's still early but the bulls are winning the 50/100 EMA battle that I talked about in Thursday's commentary. The bear flag is now history - IF this rally holds into the close.
Small caps are trying to hold onto that 200-day EMA, and so far showing a little more relative strength compared to large caps after last week's big lag.
The 10-year yield is moving higher again, so we are seeing the support holding and getting a double bottom bounce, plus a mini break above short-term resistance line, but this is an oversold bounce so far and possibly just a small breather for bond prices.
The dollar's making new highs this morning. The I-fund has actually held up well despite this.
The S&P is rebounding but is still within that bear flag.
The 10-year yield is rallying off that double bottom and looks to want to test the 20, maybe the 50-day EMA...
... and that will pull bonds (F-fund) down slightly, but as we talked about in today's commentary, there's some decent support just below in the bond fund.
The Transports are not looking great today. After a few failed attempts to get back above the 50-day EMA, it is now falling back below the 200-day EMA and looking like a form of a head and shoulders pattern. The low on the 13th is key support level, otherwise 10,000 may be next.
The Dow hasn't broken down like the Transports in that previous post, but you can see that it is struggling at the 50-day EMA - which held firmly as support in March. The Transports are generally considered a leading index, so does that mean the Dow will pull back sharply from the 50-EMA next?
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