tsptalk's Market Talk

[tsptalk]

New high in the S&P 500 (C) this morning, small caps (S) are flat, the I-fund is up moderately with the dollar down, and the Transports are down fairly sharply.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury broke below a bear flag, pushing up bond prices (F).

 

[tsptalk]

The energy sector has broken some support that could be troublesome.

Small caps are cracking a bit, but a strong close above about 1415 could change that...

 

[tsptalk]

The 20-day EMA was taken out this morning, but it's early and we've seen crazy reversals lately. So far this is nothing, as far as a dip below recent highs, but the open gap near 2835 is still out there as a potential target if this pullback is going to continue.

 

[tsptalk]

We're seeing some buying after this morning's plunge below the 50-day EMA, but it is battling back.

This is why the 50-day EMA is so important. Once broken it can become the resistance...

 

[tsptalk]

Two birds with one stone...

The open gap from March was filled this morning, and now this reversal up filled this morning's gap - that can't even be seen now but was between the open near 2860 and yesterday's low of 2873. Now what?

There is still a very small open gap down near 2740.

 

[tsptalk]

Interesting... Here it is again at the top of the old inverted H&S pattern. That's a perfect place for support after a breakout... but if that doesn't hold, we have some trouble. Of course the 200-day EMA is also always a possible target on pullbacks like this.

 

[tsptalk]

Bonds are rallying as the 10-year Treasury yield is still trending lower...

 

[tsptalk]

The 10-year yield is at 2.382% right now, up off the morning lows after bouncing off the March low. A breakdown would put it to levels not seen since 2017, but there's a long way to go before it hits the 2016 lows. Just an interesting look. I had forgotten they had gotten so low, and the chart looks bearish, making the F-fund a possible good play in the coming months if someone doesn't like stocks right now.

 

[tsptalk]

The battle lines are drawn...

 

[tsptalk]

It's still early but the bulls are winning the 50/100 EMA battle that I talked about in Thursday's commentary. The bear flag is now history - IF this rally holds into the close.

 

[tsptalk]

Also, bond yields are bouncing off the double bottom, so bonds are off their highs this morning.

 

[tsptalk]

Small caps are trying to hold onto that 200-day EMA, and so far showing a little more relative strength compared to large caps after last week's big lag.

The 10-year yield is moving higher again, so we are seeing the support holding and getting a double bottom bounce, plus a mini break above short-term resistance line, but this is an oversold bounce so far and possibly just a small breather for bond prices.

 

[tsptalk]

The dollar's making new highs this morning. The I-fund has actually held up well despite this.

The S&P is rebounding but is still within that bear flag.

The 10-year yield is rallying off that double bottom and looks to want to test the 20, maybe the 50-day EMA...

... and that will pull bonds (F-fund) down slightly, but as we talked about in today's commentary, there's some decent support just below in the bond fund.

 

[tsptalk]

The Transports are not looking great today. After a few failed attempts to get back above the 50-day EMA, it is now falling back below the 200-day EMA and looking like a form of a head and shoulders pattern. The low on the 13th is key support level, otherwise 10,000 may be next.

 

[tsptalk]

The Dow hasn't broken down like the Transports in that previous post, but you can see that it is struggling at the 50-day EMA - which held firmly as support in March. The Transports are generally considered a leading index, so does that mean the Dow will pull back sharply from the 50-EMA next?

 

[tsptalk]

Things can change in the blink of an eye in this volatile market, but the 100-day is being tested again on the S&P, and...

... the 200-day EMA broke down this morning on the small caps.

 

[tsptalk]

New low in the 10-year T-note yield.

 

[tsptalk]

Nice pop in the small caps, and I'm sure it wants to fill that open gap, but now that it broke down, the 200-day EMA is getting in the way - at least for today. Maybe next week?

 

[tsptalk]

200-day EMA test time...

 

[tsptalk]

Small caps trying to hang onto that neckline of H&S...