tsptalk's Market Talk

[tsptalk]

Well, they are reloading the ATM's asap. Banks are still open. This goes a long way towards calming the public. So far, all I see is panic...no real reason for a global market meltdown due to this. :scratchchin:

We've seen this show before, in a different theater. I remember several weekends over the years when I was sitting with S&P puts and the futures were getting crushed Sunday night. I was counting my winnings and nearly had it spent, when the market ended up opening flat on Monday and I made nothing. Emotional Monday mornings are crazy, but rarely easy to play.

 

[tsptalk]

Well, S&P futures are down about 35-points. Boom!

 

[userque]

Well, S&P futures are down about 35-points. Boom!

Tom,

Have you started counting your winnings early again?:blink:

 

[weatherweenie]

Well, S&P futures are down about 35-points. Boom!

Bring it!

 

[tsptalk]

Tom,

Have you started counting your winnings early again?

It would have been nice to have that problem tonight, but I didn't have any positions going into the weekend. I'm mainly day trading futures in my personal account these days as opposed to holding overnight. Today is a good reminder why I go home flat every day.

 

[userque]

It would have been nice to have that problem tonight, but I didn't have any positions going into the weekend. I'm mainly day trading futures in my personal account these days as opposed to holding overnight. Today is a good reminder why I go home flat every day.

How many round trips per day do you average?

 

[tsptalk]

How many round trips per day do you average?

Very few. I usually have a trade range lined up for the day. I'll play it once, and sometimes it gives me a 2nd opportunity. Rarely does a 3rd work.

But I do trade about 6 markets looking for those setups. S&P (ES), Naz (NQ), sometimes the Russell, but not often, the main grains (wheat, corn, soybeans) and then gold and the euro. And that's about it. Usually 3 or 4 trades a day at most.

 

[userque]

Very few. I usually have a trade range lined up for the day. I'll play it once, and sometimes it gives me a 2nd opportunity. Rarely does a 3rd work.

But I do trade about 6 markets looking for those setups. S&P (ES), Naz (NQ), sometimes the Russell, but not often, the main grains (wheat, corn, soybeans) and then gold and the euro. And that's about it. Usually 3 or 4 trades a day at most.

Nice...

Stop Limit orders already placed? Just waiting to see what you catch?

 

[tsptalk]

Nice...

Stop Limit orders already placed? Just waiting to see what you catch?

Absolutely. Stops are kinda of loose early. If I hit my profit target early I usually bail or go to a tight trailing stop.

 

[OBXTrader]

As I recall, you have observed that a large gap down on a Monday (like on June 15th) is recovered to varying degrees. Catching the S&P knife at 0945 EST on the June15th would have yielded a great reward for anyone so bold to hold on and sell anytime last week.

We've seen this show before, in a different theater. I remember several weekends over the years when I was sitting with S&P puts and the futures were getting crushed Sunday night. I was counting my winnings and nearly had it spent, when the market ended up opening flat on Monday and I made nothing. Emotional Monday mornings are crazy, but rarely easy to play.

 

[userque]

Absolutely. Stops are kinda of loose early. If I hit my profit target early I usually bail or go to a tight trailing stop.

I remember daytrading back in the day...when the urge comes, do you have to run to and from the bathroom?

 

[tsptalk]

As I recall, you have observed that a large gap down on a Monday (like on June 15th) is recovered to varying degrees. Catching the S&P knife at 0945 EST on the June15th would have yielded a great reward for anyone so bold to hold on and sell anytime last week.

Right. For those looking to Monday morning, often big gaps down in the futures on Sunday night doesn't always translate into a terrible open on Monday for stocks.

Gaps do get filled more often than not, and sooner than later, but also, dead cat bounces are not that strong if thrown from a high level.

It's way too early to guess, but ideally a big gap down gets filled, the low gets tested and holds in the days ahead. That would create a solid bottom. But if the test fails obviously we'd have something more sinister on our hands.

This could be a double whammy with Greece, plus China being down 20% in the last 2 weeks.

 

[nnuut]

Hold onto your Britches Greece just threw a Bomb in the Market!:thumbsdown::thumbsdown:

 

[Sensei]

Meh. Doesn't look TOO bad. Nikkei and the futures are down, but slowly climbing. We've seen worse days for stocks based on no news at all.

On an unrelated note, I haven't been poring over the site as much as usual recently, so maybe this has been addressed and someone can point me to the answer. How come when I open a thread in the forum, it takes me to somewhere in the middle of page 2? Is there a quick fix to get back to the old way of opening up immediately to the most recent post? TIA.

Moved here http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/report-problems/22921-when-i-open-thread-forum.html

 

[tsptalk]

Wow, another 7.4% down on Friday. Can you imagine that kind of action in our funds?

Down another 6.6% so far on Monday morning. Brutal!

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Is This the End? (of Bull Run)

Over the past few months the biggest threat to the Bull Market run since 2009 was thought to be the specter of the US Fed raising rates (a fraction) lol
Now 2 much bigger things ongoing:

1) Chinese stock index crashing 20% into correction territory.

2) GREXIT - and possible contagion thru Europe.

All I can say, is that if the Chinese stock market crash,...Greece/Euro exit threat with banks closed...and threat of Fed rate hikes...are not enough to end this bull run, then nothing will!

 

[tsptalk]

Is This the End? (of Bull Run)

Over the past few months the biggest threat to the Bull Market run since 2009 was thought to be the specter of the US Fed raising rates (a fraction) lol
Now 2 much bigger things ongoing:

1) Chinese stock index crashing 20% into correction territory.

2) GREXIT - and possible contagion thru Europe.

All I can say, is that if the Chinese stock market crash,...Greece/Euro exit threat with banks closed...and threat of Fed rate hikes...are not enough to end this bull run, then nothing will!

Add Puerto Rico to the mix. They announced that they can't make their debt payments.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Add Puerto Rico to the mix. They announced that they can't make their debt payments.

So as Puerto Rico goes, so does the rest of the U.S. ?

 

[jonfresno]

Add Puerto Rico to the mix. They announced that they can't make their debt payments.

Didn't know, wasn't on my radar, but my radar is limited to what pops up on the Google finance headlines when I check my stock quotes, and of course, your Market Commentary....

Thanks for bringing that up. I would definitely want to factor that in to any short-term investment decision.

 

[Skorcher]

So as Puerto Rico goes, so does the rest of the U.S. ?

Puerto Rico is run more like Greece than any of the 50 U.S. states. So in the near term the rest of the U.S. is ok. However the day of reckoning will come sooner or later on the U.S. federal debt. Can you imagine how the U.S. will be able to pay a $ trillion interest bill per year or more if interest rates rise to a normal 5%?