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tsptalk's Market Talk
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JTH
Well-known member
This is the impression from John Hussman. He comes across as a perma-bear because he also seems to be bullish after a market crash, yet he's a highly respected fund manager.
https://x.com/hussmanjp/status/1807964652845863136
Since you know I can't resist (the temptation is too great). I'm familiar with Hussman's commentary, just listened to his interview last week. He makes some points that everything is overvalued. That's all great but when and how far will we fall? We could wait months or years before he's right, in the meantime I can't hide my money under the mattress.
As of today, 115 (or 23%) of holdings are greater than the S&P 500's 15.50% YTD performance. But that chart misses the point that our top & middle weighted holdings are doing well.
By weight, those 115 holdings > 15.50% YTD up are 46% of the index.
By weight, the 179 holdings in the middle, >0% YTD but less than 15.50% YTD make up 33% of the index.
Lastly, by weight, the 207 holdings <0% YTD make up 21% of the index.
GEV & SOLV weren't counted since they joined the Index in April.
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Weaker than expected ADP jobs data sent yields back down, and stocks are responding positively with small caps outperforming large caps in the early trading.
The move lower in yields merely filled Monday's open gap, and as I speculated in today's market commentary, either one of those gaps was likely to get filled in the short term. But now what?
The dollar also moved down sharply on the ADP data and that's helping the I-fund lead the way today.
Oil is flat, gold and silver are up big, and crypto is falling.
As I mentioned yesterday, oil ($82.88) may need to stay below $84 to keep stocks from falling.
The move lower in yields merely filled Monday's open gap, and as I speculated in today's market commentary, either one of those gaps was likely to get filled in the short term. But now what?
The dollar also moved down sharply on the ADP data and that's helping the I-fund lead the way today.
Oil is flat, gold and silver are up big, and crypto is falling.
As I mentioned yesterday, oil ($82.88) may need to stay below $84 to keep stocks from falling.
Yields are falling sharply after the jobs report. Large caps are up, small caps are down, so that bifurcation continues - at least to start the day.
Oil is inching over $84, gold and silver are up, and bitcoin is down.
Oil is inching over $84, gold and silver are up, and bitcoin is down.
We're only a half hour into the new week and that's not a great indication of how the day or week will go, but so far we are seeing more of the same from large caps and tech, but the early action shows a little life in the small caps. We've seen it before and it had failed to hold so small cappers probably aren't getting too excited, but it's a start.
Yields are up very slightly and the dollar is flat so not a lot of catalysts for stocks there.
The DWCPF (S-fund) is up nicely in early action but it's hitting another of the several layers of resistance that has been holding it back. A close above 2020 would be different.
Gold and silver are down, oil is down slightly and remains below the key $84 level I have been talking about. Crypto has been getting beaten down over the last week but it is up this morning.
Yields are up very slightly and the dollar is flat so not a lot of catalysts for stocks there.
The DWCPF (S-fund) is up nicely in early action but it's hitting another of the several layers of resistance that has been holding it back. A close above 2020 would be different.
Gold and silver are down, oil is down slightly and remains below the key $84 level I have been talking about. Crypto has been getting beaten down over the last week but it is up this morning.
The usual suspects are up this morning while the one day wonder small caps are back down. The Dow is down nearly 200-points with the top 9 weighted stocks in the Dow being down. Meanwhile the Nasdaq is leading with a triple digit, 0.54% gain.
Yields are up a bit, the dollar is also up helping push the the S and I-funds down.
Oil just ticked below $82, while gold, silver and cryptos are up.
Fed chair Powell is speaking in front of the Senate banking Committee today.
Yields are up a bit, the dollar is also up helping push the the S and I-funds down.
Oil just ticked below $82, while gold, silver and cryptos are up.
Fed chair Powell is speaking in front of the Senate banking Committee today.
JTH
Well-known member
Ya know, I feel like we keep seeing the same thing every single day :suspicious:
Once again we see stocks quite mixed with the big tech Nasdaq leading on the upside, and that is also pulling up the S&P 500 which is heavily weighted in the Magnificent 7 stocks. Meanwhile the Dow, and small caps are fighting just to stay flat in early trading.
Jerome Powel is in front of congress again today. Yields are fairly flat and the dollar is modestly lower and that is giving the I-fund a boost this morning.
There have not been many catalysts lately but tomorrow's CPI could be one as investors still count on a rate cut in September, although there is a July meeting in between now and then and it's possible that the CPI data could make a difference at that meeting. Earnings are coming out but earnings season won't get heated up for a while.
Oil is up a bit but still below $82. The metals are up and cryptos are mixed.
The only interesting chart I see right now is the I-fund as it makes another attempt to test the previous highs.
Jerome Powel is in front of congress again today. Yields are fairly flat and the dollar is modestly lower and that is giving the I-fund a boost this morning.
There have not been many catalysts lately but tomorrow's CPI could be one as investors still count on a rate cut in September, although there is a July meeting in between now and then and it's possible that the CPI data could make a difference at that meeting. Earnings are coming out but earnings season won't get heated up for a while.
Oil is up a bit but still below $82. The metals are up and cryptos are mixed.
The only interesting chart I see right now is the I-fund as it makes another attempt to test the previous highs.
Stocks opened mixed after a better than expected CPI report that showed a contraction in prices in June - not just a lower increase as we have been seeing.
Stocks are mixed on the news but the real story is the way small caps opened up. With the Dow and S&P 500 flat to slightly lower, the small caps of the Russell 2000 jumped up 2% at the open giving investors hope that the rotation into the broader indices is finally starting. The S-fund is up about 1.6% in early trading. This is a big change.
Now if this rally fails by the close the market is likely toast, so don't look away yet. This could be a make or break day.
Yields and the dollar are tumbling on this soft but favorable economic data.
Oil is down despite the big drop in the dollar, so that's good news. Gold, silver, and crypto are all up to start the day
Stocks are mixed on the news but the real story is the way small caps opened up. With the Dow and S&P 500 flat to slightly lower, the small caps of the Russell 2000 jumped up 2% at the open giving investors hope that the rotation into the broader indices is finally starting. The S-fund is up about 1.6% in early trading. This is a big change.
Now if this rally fails by the close the market is likely toast, so don't look away yet. This could be a make or break day.
Yields and the dollar are tumbling on this soft but favorable economic data.
Oil is down despite the big drop in the dollar, so that's good news. Gold, silver, and crypto are all up to start the day
It ended with a spread of 5.5% which is the largest on record.
There's a long way to go before the small caps catch up, but this morning there is a nearly 5% swing going on between the Russell 2000 (+3.5%) and the Nasdaq (-1.3%).
Rotation, rotation, rotation.
The PPI (Producer Prices) report came in a little hotter than expected, with revisions higher made to the prior month as well, but the stock market seems to be ignoring that as the CPI is the key reading. Bond yields are up slightly however.
The large caps are bouncing back from yesterday's losses but the small caps are tacking onto Thursday's big gains. It is a approaching the March high so there is a potential for a double top here, and the open gaps could be a drag, but they've been coiling up for quite a while and could blart through if there's enough people underinvested in small caps.
Oil is back over $83, gold and silver are down, and crypto is up.
The large caps are bouncing back from yesterday's losses but the small caps are tacking onto Thursday's big gains. It is a approaching the March high so there is a potential for a double top here, and the open gaps could be a drag, but they've been coiling up for quite a while and could blart through if there's enough people underinvested in small caps.
Oil is back over $83, gold and silver are down, and crypto is up.
It's early, and it's Monday morning so what we see now may not be what we see at the end of the day, but so far small caps are taking the lead and the I-fund is dipping on a rally in the dollar.
Yields and the dollar are up slightly, and if you recall, after the presidential debate, yields and the dollar rallied strong for a couple of days as the market priced it more spending and tax cuts, but so far the move this morning is more subdued.
The S-fund is still negotiating the March highs with a couple of big open gaps below, so that's the fork in the road on that chart. Meanwhile the S&P 500 has been churning sideways while the small caps have been exploding higher.
The I-fund is backing and filling one of its open gaps to start the day.
Oil and the metals are down, while crypto is rallying.
Yields and the dollar are up slightly, and if you recall, after the presidential debate, yields and the dollar rallied strong for a couple of days as the market priced it more spending and tax cuts, but so far the move this morning is more subdued.
The S-fund is still negotiating the March highs with a couple of big open gaps below, so that's the fork in the road on that chart. Meanwhile the S&P 500 has been churning sideways while the small caps have been exploding higher.
The I-fund is backing and filling one of its open gaps to start the day.
Oil and the metals are down, while crypto is rallying.
The Dow and the small caps are making the biggest moves today while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq flounder a bit, although with good reason after the recent rallies to all time highs.
The Dow is up over 500-points this morning, blasting through resistance and looking impressive. There will be a day that it will likely come back to test that resistance line, but it could be days, weeks, or months - you never know, but overall this left lower corner to top right corner direction is tough to argue with.
Small caps have come to life after a long dormant period, and in this feast or famine Russell 2000 index, the feast is on as the chart start to look parabolic.
Yields are down slightly helping the F-fund to a gain in early trading, but the dollar is up putting some pressure on the I-fund in the early going.
Oil is down while gold and silver are up, and cryptos are mixed.
The Dow is up over 500-points this morning, blasting through resistance and looking impressive. There will be a day that it will likely come back to test that resistance line, but it could be days, weeks, or months - you never know, but overall this left lower corner to top right corner direction is tough to argue with.
Small caps have come to life after a long dormant period, and in this feast or famine Russell 2000 index, the feast is on as the chart start to look parabolic.
Yields are down slightly helping the F-fund to a gain in early trading, but the dollar is up putting some pressure on the I-fund in the early going.
Oil is down while gold and silver are up, and cryptos are mixed.
The markets woke up this morning to a gap down open after some comments from Biden and Trump regarding tariffs and Taiwan, and it was a good excuse for some profit taking. Yields aren't moving much but the dollar is down sharply helping the I-fund lead with a smaller loss (-0.40%). The C and S funds are down near 1%.
Perhaps this is the start of a more serious pullback but so far support is still holding, although it is being tested on the S&P 500 (C).
The S-fund was up 2.6% yesterday so a 0.9% loss (so far) is just some backing and filling. There's plenty of room on the S-fund chart for profit takers before any damage is done.
Oil is up 2%, gold is up slightly, but silver is down sharply. Bitcoin is flat after a big run higher recently.
Perhaps this is the start of a more serious pullback but so far support is still holding, although it is being tested on the S&P 500 (C).
The S-fund was up 2.6% yesterday so a 0.9% loss (so far) is just some backing and filling. There's plenty of room on the S-fund chart for profit takers before any damage is done.
Oil is up 2%, gold is up slightly, but silver is down sharply. Bitcoin is flat after a big run higher recently.
We've got yields and the dollar moving higher this morning, despite a weaker than expected jobless claims number. Stocks don't mind as they are up in early trading. Weak data means fodder for rate cuts, so the move higher in yields and the dollar is curious.
Small caps are very overbought but had been suppressed for so long that underinvested individuals are likely to buy the dips - barring any economic data that could change their mind.
Lots of Fed talk recently but it is all pointing in the same direction.
The I-fund is off the slow start with the dollar popping. Japan was down today but a lot of green in Europe.
Oil is down slightly to 82.50, gold and silver are up, and bitcoin is down a bit.
Small caps are very overbought but had been suppressed for so long that underinvested individuals are likely to buy the dips - barring any economic data that could change their mind.
Lots of Fed talk recently but it is all pointing in the same direction.
The I-fund is off the slow start with the dollar popping. Japan was down today but a lot of green in Europe.
Oil is down slightly to 82.50, gold and silver are up, and bitcoin is down a bit.
The other day I said that there weren't many catalysts on the docket until earnings start coming in more heavily toward the end of the month and when the next inflationary data report comes out, but obviously a lot has happened this week. So, it's been a very volatile week and perhaps fitting that the first 30 minutes of trading on Friday is dead flat, although the Dow does have a triple digit loss. They are fighting a pop in yields and the dollar, perhaps due to the situation in Washington and the presidential outlook, or maybe it's the Crowdstrike debacle, or maybe investors are just not sure which way to turn after the crazy action lately.
The recent selling took some of the short-term overbought levels down a few notches, but it's tough to gauge since a lot of the buying in small caps was related to short-covering.
The rally in the dollar is weighing on commodity prices and gold, silver, and oil are down this morning, but bitcoin it up.
Small caps have been the most volatile and they (the S-fund) are trying to find some stability near the recent peaks, but there are more open gaps below that could draw attention.
The recent selling took some of the short-term overbought levels down a few notches, but it's tough to gauge since a lot of the buying in small caps was related to short-covering.
The rally in the dollar is weighing on commodity prices and gold, silver, and oil are down this morning, but bitcoin it up.
Small caps have been the most volatile and they (the S-fund) are trying to find some stability near the recent peaks, but there are more open gaps below that could draw attention.
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