tsptalk's Market Talk

[crws]

A 0.75% move in the DXY is huge. Whatever happened to the days when 0.1% was a big move?

curious to know what that was all about...
Quelling oil speculators, perhaps?

 

[tsptalk]

I'm getting a little nervous about my bullishness. I now have 50% G fund / 50% stocks, and I'm impatiently waiting for April to get here with its new batch of IFT's.

I'd love to see the jobs report create a sharp sell-off on April 1 to give us a chance to buy, but whenever I think like that it usually means I'm too bullish.

Tomorrow's Sentiment Survey will be interesting. We haven't had a sell signal yet this year as investors have remained nervous despite the decent action. Will the Dow hitting new highs change that this week?

 

[coolhand]

I solved my bullishness problem. I've been unloading into this rally for the last couple of days, 10% each day it looks like it's advancing. I'm down to a 30% stock allocation effective COB today.

That V bottom sure fooled a lot of traders. Interestingly, liquidity had dropped at that time and institutionals were in low distribution. But that's changed in the past week or so.

Risk on, risk off. I just wish I knew what the risk was. Tsunami's, nuclear disasters, currency valuations, EU credit risk, etc. None of that apparently matters. :blink:

Maybe it's fear of missing that next up-leg?

I'm getting a little nervous about my bullishness. I now have 50% G fund / 50% stocks, and I'm impatiently waiting for April to get here with its new batch of IFT's.

I'd love to see the jobs report create a sharp sell-off on April 1 to give us a chance to buy, but whenever I think like that it usually means I'm too bullish.

Tomorrow's Sentiment Survey will be interesting. We haven't had a sell signal yet this year as investors have remained nervous despite the decent action. Will the Dow hitting new highs change that this week?

 

[crws]

I solved my bullishness problem. I've been unloading into this rally for the last couple of days, 10% each day it looks like it's advancing. I'm down to a 30% stock allocation effective COB today.

That V bottom sure fooled a lot of traders. Interestingly, liquidity had dropped at that time and institutionals were in low distribution. But that's changed in the past week or so.

Risk on, risk off. I just wish I knew what the risk was. Tsunami's, nuclear disasters, currency valuations, EU credit risk, etc. None of that apparently matters. :blink:

Maybe it's fear of missing that next up-leg?

cocaine brain? :suspicious:
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=308480&postcount=409

 

[Mcqlives]

I solved my bullishness problem. I've been unloading into this rally for the last couple of days, 10% each day it looks like it's advancing. I'm down to a 30% stock allocation effective COB today.

That V bottom sure fooled a lot of traders. Interestingly, liquidity had dropped at that time and institutionals were in low distribution. But that's changed in the past week or so.

Risk on, risk off. I just wish I knew what the risk was. Tsunami's, nuclear disasters, currency valuations, EU credit risk, etc. None of that apparently matters. :blink:

Maybe it's fear of missing that next up-leg?

CH,

Any thoughts are appreciated.

I rode that "V" in the S fund from the 24th of February all the way till now and am positive for March (not nearly as much as I made in February though). I was expecting around a 7 or 8% sell off in mid to late March but the news driven sell off caught me off guard. I kept expecting the news to calm down and a short bull run before the 7 or 8% sell off would start but the news drove the consolidation down and down. Now we have the calm down but is the consolidation done?

My original plan was to be in the S fund till around the 11th of March followed by bailing into the G till this week when I would have bought back into S to start off April with 2 moves. Now I am sitting here looking at April being a historically positive month but am getting a bad feeling that the 7 or 8% (or more) consolidation is still to come.

I'm getting ready to flip a coin.

 

[WorkFE]

I'm getting ready to flip a coin.

Which is heads and which is tales. What came up.

 

[hessian]

Lots of technical reads to think bullish - but note the $TRAN though...
We like to think of the $TRAN as a market leader, and today we touched the Feb. high of 1506.6, briefly, then fell back after we punched the 5107.37 mark - to finish about 30 points below. Could this suggest a double top??

Not-so-good news in world-events tonight suggest maybe a return of fundamental fears & uncertainty. I'm sure the POMO wished & pushed for a glamorous end to Q1.

 

[coolhand]

This is having a big influence on prices for sure. And now some of the Fed chiefs are coming out and saying they think QE2 should be cut off early. I know it's just talk and we can never trust what's released in the media, but if an official statement comes out when no one expects it (that's how it will happen) and the Fed changes tack out of the blue, watch out.

I'm sure the POMO wished & pushed for a glamorous end to Q1.

 

[Mcqlives]

Which is heads and which is tales. What came up.

It landed on the edge...in the gutter. No, I'm not kidding, I did it on the way out to the car this morning and heads was going to be "stay in the S" and tails was "going to G".

I am now giving up on systems, technicals and coins and going to look at the horoscope.

 

[tsptalk]

I'm using the Sentiment Survey System's sell signal and today's rally to move 100% to the G fund. (I had been 50% G, 50% stock funds).

This is against my better judgement but the sentiment survey is better than my better judgement. I just want to see how the S&P handles the double top. I will buy a pullback from the double top, or possibly the breakout, so this move to the G-fund is likely very short-term.

With earnings season coming up I can see a rally up to the bulk of the announcements in mid-April, then a sell the news on the release of those earnings.

So, I'm looking forward to buying a dip next week and holding into mid-April. Then we have to deal with "sell in May and go away".

Wouldn't it be nice if things worked out the way we planned them?

 

[poolman]

Wouldn't it be nice if things worked out the way we planned them?

YES

 

[TSPIntel]

I'm using the Sentiment Survey System's sell signal and today's rally to move 100% to the G fund. (I had been 50% G, 50% stock funds).

This is against my better judgement but the sentiment survey is better than my better judgement. I just want to see how the S&P handles the double top. I will buy a pullback from the double top, or possibly the breakout, so this move to the G-fund is likely very short-term.

With earnings season coming up I can see a rally up to the bulk of the announcements in mid-April, then a sell the news on the release of those earnings.

So, I'm looking forward to buying a dip next week and holding into mid-April. Then we have to deal with "sell in May and go away".

Wouldn't it be nice if things worked out the way we planned them?

I did not find my "buying a dip" last week. I hope to buy on the flat and stable "Expiration Friday" and deal with my "sell in May and go away" the first week of May.

 

[tsptalk]

I'm using the Sentiment Survey System's sell signal and today's rally to move 100% to the G fund. (I had been 50% G, 50% stock funds).

Since that transfer to 100% G, the Sentiment Survey has given another buy signal and we've seen a small pullback that is possibly forming a right shoulder of an inverted head and shoulders pattern, as well as a bull flag. I decided to move to 100% S on today's triple digit sell-off.

 

[BigJohn]

Since that transfer to 100% G, the Sentiment Survey has given another buy signal and we've seen a small pullback that is possibly forming a right shoulder of a head and shoulders pattern, as well as a bull flag. I decided to move to 100% S on today's triple digit sell-off.

My "sentiment" is that a move to the S today will payoff nicely, well done.

 

[Bquat]

Since that transfer to 100% G, the Sentiment Survey has given another buy signal and we've seen a small pullback that is possibly forming a right shoulder of a head and shoulders pattern, as well as a bull flag. I decided to move to 100% S on today's triple digit sell-off.

Don't you mean an inverted head and shoulders?

 

[tsptalk]

Don't you mean an inverted head and shoulders?

Yes. :embarrest:

 

[James48843]

Wouldn't it be nice if things worked out the way we planned them?

YES! (But it rarely happens for me. )

 

[weatherweenie]

Since that transfer to 100% G, the Sentiment Survey has given another buy signal and we've seen a small pullback that is possibly forming a right shoulder of an inverted head and shoulders pattern, as well as a bull flag. I decided to move to 100% S on today's triple digit sell-off.

I put the rest of my G fund, 50%, into the S fund cob today. Time to make some money!

 

[hessian]

Just a note of caution,
(I believe there's a bear flag here, in addition the Mr. Chenard's "wedge"...)

"Note that two, very important resistance and support lines are converging.
Something big is close to happening, because the index is coming to the apex of a very large triangular pattern. From the 2009 low, the Banking index is still in a technical up trend.​

To continue that up trend, the Banking Index would have to break above the long term resistance line ... which would put it in a position to rally further.​

If the Banking Index should break to the downside, then the 2007/2008 down trend would continue.
The implications of this impending breakout should not ignored due to the major impact it will have on the S&P 500."​

View attachment 10941
http://www.stocktiming.com/Friday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm

 

[TSPIntel]

TSPTalk: YOU DID AND OUTSTANDING OBSERVATION ! VERY CLEVER AND SOUNDED TOO !
"Stocks continued to pull back early last week, but a 2-day bounce off of the 50-day EMA’s on Thursday and Friday"