tsptalk's Market Talk

Look at that volume dwindling down

Kind of typical in the middle of summer. Here's 2019 in the same time frame. Of course volatility was much lower then so the comparison to spring volume wasn't as great as it is this year.

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What a difference a couple of hours makes...

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Nothing overly interesting happening today. Small caps seem to be outperforming, but other than that it feels like a day of rest after the good, but not great, earnings reports last night.

This is the time of July that we tend to see a "sell the news" reaction, even if the news is good, so as Boomer said, the market is showing resilience when it has the excuse to pullback.

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Small caps now a failed breakout, and flirting with some rising support. A gap remains open just below.

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The Naz 100 still hasn't had 2 down straight down days since mid-May but today that streak is at risk.. It's getting a big boost off of a rising support line and is well off the lows, but now the 20-day EMA needs to be recaptured.

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The decline in the dollar is getting serious. Is this the start of the crash of the dollar everyone's been talking about for 20 years?

The weekly chart below this daily chart is down testing the 200 week average again, like during the pandemic stock market crash.

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Is the dip in Nasdaq over already? It's back above the 20-day EMA after bouncing off the rising support line on Friday.

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The bulls may need a late rally to try to avoid what could be a small bear flag forming. Nothing serious yet, but with Amazon, Apple, and GOOG all getting ready to report tomorrow after the bell, that wouldn't be the best set up for those market movers.

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High Yield Corp Bonds are back above resistance. The stock market should hold up as long as this does. It doesn't mean this can't rollover - and the Fed could do that later with their policy statement - but as it is now, stocks should do well as long as the support holds on this chart.

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The first of the big four earnings reports are out and Facebook beats on top and bottom line.

Amazon, Apple, and Google next...
 
Bulls just keep drying up. In late May - early June there were 33-34% bulls.

Sentimentrader seems to think these numbers are very negative, but we are in a bull market and buy signals aren't what we're looking for. Wall of worry.
 
The dollar, bitcoin, gold, and silver all up today. Interesting. I thought the metals were feeding off of the weak dollar.
 
Bulls just keep drying up. In late May - early June there were 33-34% bulls.

Sentimentrader seems to think these numbers are very negative, but we are in a bull market and buy signals aren't what we're looking for. Wall of worry.

Hmm.. Where are you seeing that - that ST is negative based on AAII's low bullish percentage?

I'm not sure if this is part if the pay portion of his site...

https://www.sentimentrader.com/blog/individuals-are-still-being-left-out/

The Backtest Engine shows that the S&P 500 has rallied 93% of the time over the next three months when fewer than 20.5% of respondents considered themselves bullish on the market.

The most recent time this happened was 2102 and it turned out to be bearish, but the prior 9 times showed positive returns 1, 2, 3, 6, and 12 months out.
 
Dannyboy has sent 2 emails, previously. Dannyboy IFT is set at G1C59S40 since 7-31-20. I had changed to G100 on Saturday,7- 25, but I canned that on 10:00am on Monday 7-27. I am glad I did but I am not able to get back to you. I know that you can’t change your what has been but it has to would be good if I can start August out correct and that is
Dannyboy is set at G1C9S40 on 8-1-20. I do hop that this can be done? During this pandemic I do have lots of free time, so I put focus on the thing I
can?
 
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