tsptalk's Market Talk

[evilanne]

One possibility, written back in May this year: The Last Time Greece Did This, Its Stock Market Crashed 70% | Zero Hedge

 

[tsptalk]

FedEx was selling off after hours yesterday... today it's rallying and helping the Transports to move into another gear.

 

[tsptalk]

Despite the weakness in the Dow and S&P, there are new highs in Russell early this morning. Can it hold into the close?

 

[tsptalk]

The dollar is rallying for a second day...

Pulling the I-fund down.

 

[tsptalk]

Fear & Greed Index - Investor Sentiment - CNNMoney

 

[tsptalk]

A 2nd down day for the Transports today, after Wednesday's negative reversal pattern. It's still in a strong rising channel but the rising wedge (dashed) finally broke - although that was way too steep to continue much longer. Looks like 9850 is the next level of support to watch.

 

[tsptalk]

Economically sensitive Copper is having a big day today - trying to rebound off the 50-day EMA. It's testing some rising resistance this morning while at a 3-week high.

 

[tsptalk]

The small caps are holding above the 20-day EMA after yesterday's reversal.

The I-fund has some headwinds today with the dollar rising this morning, despite gains overseas.

 

[tsptalk]

Weird day so far.

The Nasdaq is up 100 (1.5%), the S&P is up 12 (.5%), the Dow and Transports are each up 1, (flat) and small caps are down (-0.2%). The dollar is up putting some pressure on the I-fund, which is up slightly.

 

[tsptalk]

The Transports look ready to test the bottom of that flag formation. A breakdown would test the 50-day EMA, and that must hold because there's nothing but air below it (little support). Otherwise, perhaps back to the top of the flag.

 

[tsptalk]

The day's not over yet and the Fed could change everything in about 30 minutes, but so far today the small caps have produced a nasty negative reversal day.

 

[tsptalk]

The Transports are milking this 50-day EMA drama for all it can get. The 50-day EMA is usually a great place to find support in a bull market, but when it fails, as you see in the other breakdowns, it can be quick and harsh. The falling wedge gives it another bullish catalyst so I'd be surprised if it broke down, but if it does...

 

[tsptalk]

It's still early and we've seen several intraday reversals recently so I don't want to be too much of an alarmist, but the Transports are now below that important 50-day EMA. The close will be key.

 

[tsptalk]

Another key chart that could be the tell whether stocks continue higher, or start a pullback. That's some strong support at 87.80, so if it breaks, it could be trouble.

 

[tsptalk]

Another key chart that could be the tell whether stocks continue higher, or start a pullback. That's some strong support at 87.80, so if it breaks, it could be trouble.

 

[tsptalk]

It's still early and we've seen several intraday reversals recently so I don't want to be too much of an alarmist, but the Transports are now below that important 50-day EMA. The close will be key.

 

[tsptalk]

Some follow-up to previous charts...

 

[tsptalk]

The small caps are making a bid to find support at the 50-day EMA and reverse up....

The close is key, of course.

 

[tsptalk]

Some follow-up to previous charts...

 

[tsptalk]

Greece's markets don't have a major impact on the I-fund alone, but since the Greece debt fiasco a few years ago I keep an eye out for possible clues for trouble. This is an ugly looking chart for the Athens Index. It bounced back above the 200-day EMA a couple of times but here it is below it a 3rd time after failing at the 50-EMA, and this time we have a large bear flag to go along with it, and a possible breakdown already. I'm not sure what it's saying, but it can't be good news.