tsptalk's Market Talk

At the close: Transports tank and close near the lows. Small caps improve but remain below support.

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There's usually a lag between oil and gas prices. Even when oil is rising. But I'm sure there is some gauging along the way.

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Nice little rebound, but it was due. The slope of the downtrend likely won;t last too long, but that second one near 8000 could.

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A negative reversal day would make downside follow through more likely during the next trading session. Being that it closed near the middle of the daily range, it's not as strong of a reversal.
 
High Yield Bonds opened higher (this is about 5 minutes into the trading day) and that could be key for the rally. If this reverses down before filling those gaps it could give the Fed a reason to NOT raise rates tomorrow, and that would likely spook the market - but who knows how investors will react anymore?

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Surprisingly, the SPY cut through the 200-day EMA quite easily - gapped up above it, actually. Now the 50-day EMA is being tested.

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Hang onto your shorts today. It could be a wild ride. FOMC policy statement at 2 PM ET. :1244:
 
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Hang onto your shorts today. It could be a wild ride. FOMC policy statement at noon. :1244:


At 14:00 ET:cool:
Recent History Of This Indicator
The first rate hike of the recovery is expected for the FOMC meeting announcement at 2:00 p.m. ET, lifting the fed funds rate to 0.375 percent from a range of zero to 0.25 percent. The assessments of the labor market and of inflation will be closely watched, with the former having improved but the latter remaining soft. FOMC forecasts will also be posted along with the announcement, shortly followed by the Fed Chair press conference.

FOMC Consensus Forecast for Dec. 15 Policy Vote on Fed Funds Target: to 0.375 percent from a range of zero to 0.25 percent
Economic Calendar - Bloomberg
 
I was just going to post the same observation. We are thinking alike. Either you are getting dumb or I'm getting smarter. :smile:
 
Oil is resuming the downside after the pre-holiday rally. WTI crude is down 3.2%. That's not helping stocks.
 
Market Outlook

Here's what happened last year during the last week of trading (yellow). Most of the damage was done in the final 2 days.

2014
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2015 started out quite wild with big swings in both directions.

In 2011, a year that resembles 2015, the final week was fairly wild. It ended down but there was a big up day in there. In 2012, the year started very positively.

2011
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Bottom line, today's action is not very meaningful yet - on a weekly basis. Also, there's a good chance 2016 could start out strongly, based on the S&P 500 chart (big bull flag), although the technicals on many of the other charts, and the fundamentals may not be telling the same story. Very interesting environment.
 
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