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TSPIntel's Account Talk
- Thread starter TSPIntel
- Start date
TSPIntel
Member
Super Moon...
Also A Critical turning point on DJIA
and also http://www.fedsmith.com/article/3413/sell-may-then-go-away.html
I AM 100% G...
Also A Critical turning point on DJIA
and also http://www.fedsmith.com/article/3413/sell-may-then-go-away.html
I AM 100% G...
PessOptimist
Well-known member
This moon is in the 7th house - Libra - Venus (looking lovely in the sky btw). I'm not sure how that long ago song applies or how that house led to an age.
It is interesting watching your moon phase strategy and hearing from you after an absence.
Is this entity for real?
Enquiring minds want to know.
Every night's sky show is awesome. Check your local paper for what is where.
PO
It is interesting watching your moon phase strategy and hearing from you after an absence.
Is this entity for real?
Enquiring minds want to know.
Every night's sky show is awesome. Check your local paper for what is where.
PO
TSPIntel
Member
I know... and a lot of members are be trading the Moon Cycles now... and moving into the S-Fund in this Super Full Moom. I would like to be clear... the Moon Cylces are just one from four (1 of 4) components... The Trend, The Cycle, The Season, The Random... The Earnings Season were decent and it just bullist the market... the Random News of the unemployment and europe and NO real reason to push the market bullish above its 52 weeks high... The Election Year Trend is kind of Foggy... to close to make a call... Now back to the Moon Cycles... it is nice way to go when there is a confirmation... whether a "W" formation, or technical support like the stochastic oscilator, or the RSI, or any other component in syncronization. Right now... I am 100% G-Fund waiting for the right moment to get into the S-Fund... May outlook according to the Stock Trader Almanac: Psychological: Edgy. With two consecutive years where “selling in May (or sooner) and going away” proved to be the prudent decision on their minds, traders and investors could be eyeing the current rally as an opportunity to take profits (we certainly are). Although investor sentiment and the Weekly CBOE Put/Call ratio remain at relatively neutral levels, the choppy trading of the past two months does confirm growing concerns over future economic and earnings growth.
Fundamental: Fading. Recent housing and labor market strength is fading and strong Q1 corporate earnings seem to confirm that warm winter weather pulled demand forward. It would not be surprising to see Q1 GDP beat the estimates, but will there be any strength left for the second quarter now that European debt concerns are resurfacing, Great Britain is officially in recession, and growth in China is slowing.
Technical: Range Bound. Whether looking at a chart of the past two months or the past year, markets appear stuck in a rut. DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000 have gone virtually nowhere over the past two months. And over the past year, DJIA and S&P 500 are only fractionally higher while the Russell 2000 is down nearly 6%. Only NASDAQ has made any meaningful progress over the past year, but most of these gains can be attributed to the near doubling of AAPL’s share price over the past year. As fundamentals weaken and seasonality turns negative, this lackluster performance offers little incentive for buyers.
Monetary: 0-0.25%. By acknowledging the pressure that rising food and energy prices are putting on inflation metrics and recent strength in the labor market, the Fed has dampened the prospects of additional monetary easing; at least in the near-term. However, there still isn’t enough pressure from rising inflation to deter the Fed from it’s zero-rate policy or to modify its current program dubbed “twist”. The Fed will continue to sell shorter maturity holdings and purchase longer dated ones in order to suppress long-term borrowing costs. Markets clearly want the Fed to do more, but are content with what they are currently getting, for now.
Seasonal: Bearish. May is the first month of the “Worst Six Months” for DJIA and S&P 500. However, NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months” continues until June. May’s performance has been erratic since 1997, up only six times in the past fifteen years (four of the years had gains in excess of 4%) rekindling thoughts of what we called the “May/June disaster area” that occurred from 1965 to 1984 when the S&P 500 was down during May 15 out of 20 years.
Election Year Mays rank at or near the bottom, registering net losses on the DJIA (since 1952) and NASDAQ (since 1972), and fractional gains on and S&P 500 and Russell 2000.
Earnings season has done little to rejuvenate this tired bull. After the Dow’s 4.1%, five-trading-day, correction from the April 2 high halted on April 10,
markets have rallied the past two weeks. However, trading has not been especially inspired and we have yet to comfortably clear resistance above Dow 13,200, S&P 1,400 and NASDAQ 3,050. We may yet push to slightly higher highs, giving us the opportunity and poetic license to “Sell in May.” But we believe the topping process is underway and continue to consider a defensive posture the most prudent course of action over the next several months. This 4.1% correction was the first shot across the rally’s bow. We still do not expect a big bad bear market to commence anytime soon, but a 10-15% correction is quite likely between now and the election.
Our Best Six Months Seasonal MACD Sell Signal was issued on April 3, the day after the recent high, and we recommended several downside protective actions. One of which was purchasing our new favorite bear fund, AdvisorShares Active Bear (HDGE). I have picked up some HDGE for myself and look to grab some more on this rebound rally........
Fundamental: Fading. Recent housing and labor market strength is fading and strong Q1 corporate earnings seem to confirm that warm winter weather pulled demand forward. It would not be surprising to see Q1 GDP beat the estimates, but will there be any strength left for the second quarter now that European debt concerns are resurfacing, Great Britain is officially in recession, and growth in China is slowing.
Technical: Range Bound. Whether looking at a chart of the past two months or the past year, markets appear stuck in a rut. DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000 have gone virtually nowhere over the past two months. And over the past year, DJIA and S&P 500 are only fractionally higher while the Russell 2000 is down nearly 6%. Only NASDAQ has made any meaningful progress over the past year, but most of these gains can be attributed to the near doubling of AAPL’s share price over the past year. As fundamentals weaken and seasonality turns negative, this lackluster performance offers little incentive for buyers.
Monetary: 0-0.25%. By acknowledging the pressure that rising food and energy prices are putting on inflation metrics and recent strength in the labor market, the Fed has dampened the prospects of additional monetary easing; at least in the near-term. However, there still isn’t enough pressure from rising inflation to deter the Fed from it’s zero-rate policy or to modify its current program dubbed “twist”. The Fed will continue to sell shorter maturity holdings and purchase longer dated ones in order to suppress long-term borrowing costs. Markets clearly want the Fed to do more, but are content with what they are currently getting, for now.
Seasonal: Bearish. May is the first month of the “Worst Six Months” for DJIA and S&P 500. However, NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months” continues until June. May’s performance has been erratic since 1997, up only six times in the past fifteen years (four of the years had gains in excess of 4%) rekindling thoughts of what we called the “May/June disaster area” that occurred from 1965 to 1984 when the S&P 500 was down during May 15 out of 20 years.
Election Year Mays rank at or near the bottom, registering net losses on the DJIA (since 1952) and NASDAQ (since 1972), and fractional gains on and S&P 500 and Russell 2000.
Earnings season has done little to rejuvenate this tired bull. After the Dow’s 4.1%, five-trading-day, correction from the April 2 high halted on April 10,
markets have rallied the past two weeks. However, trading has not been especially inspired and we have yet to comfortably clear resistance above Dow 13,200, S&P 1,400 and NASDAQ 3,050. We may yet push to slightly higher highs, giving us the opportunity and poetic license to “Sell in May.” But we believe the topping process is underway and continue to consider a defensive posture the most prudent course of action over the next several months. This 4.1% correction was the first shot across the rally’s bow. We still do not expect a big bad bear market to commence anytime soon, but a 10-15% correction is quite likely between now and the election.
Our Best Six Months Seasonal MACD Sell Signal was issued on April 3, the day after the recent high, and we recommended several downside protective actions. One of which was purchasing our new favorite bear fund, AdvisorShares Active Bear (HDGE). I have picked up some HDGE for myself and look to grab some more on this rebound rally........
TSPIntel
Member
PressOptimist: So far in this election year the Trend and the Cycles (Moon) are NOT Leading the market... Seasonalities and News are leading... Seasonalities include earning season, statistical and historical data movements etc... News refers not to the description of what the market did... but to the new events that are precipitating market "reasonalities" (reasons at massive scale), emotions, and movements (market directions and trends). Hang in there!!!
RealMoneyIssues
Well-known member
Re: NEW!!! EUREKA: "i Have Founded It"! Just Now
Congrats! Will this system fit within the TSP model of 2 IFTs a month and is it designed for short term gains each month or longer term trends? details
NEW!!! EUREKA: "i Have Founded It"! Just Now, a historical data tested and proven 1.5% average per month or 19.5% a year trace for the S-Fund. But Please DON'T belief me NOR take my word... Just watch the future AutoTracker moves.
Congrats! Will this system fit within the TSP model of 2 IFTs a month and is it designed for short term gains each month or longer term trends? details
nnuut
Moderator | TSP Legend
Re: NEW!!! EUREKA: "i Have Founded It"! Just Now
I will definitely keep an EYE on your moves!NEW!!! EUREKA: "i Have Founded It"! Just Now, a historical data tested and proven 1.5% average per month or 19.5% a year trace for the S-Fund. But Please DON'T belief me NOR take my word... Just watch the future AutoTracker moves.
TSPIntel
Member
Re: NEW!!! EUREKA: "i Have Founded It"! Just Now
It is for whenever it happens. That means whenever the market move and meet the conditions. Sometimes The conditions may happen the same day like today. other times the conditions may happen wihitn a month. so it tune more toward the 2 IFT per month, but it may not happen for a "long term" (quater) if the market does not meet the conditions. Hope I answered your question. Sorry if my answer is confuse. Please let me know so I may try to be more clear.
It is for whenever it happens. That means whenever the market move and meet the conditions. Sometimes The conditions may happen the same day like today. other times the conditions may happen wihitn a month. so it tune more toward the 2 IFT per month, but it may not happen for a "long term" (quater) if the market does not meet the conditions. Hope I answered your question. Sorry if my answer is confuse. Please let me know so I may try to be more clear.
TSPIntel
Member
Re: NEW!!! EUREKA: "i Have Founded It"! Just Now
Everytihing is on the percentages of the Open, High, Low, and Close of every week of every month analysis. Since June 2003 to present (July 2012) only two months out of the total of 108 months, have not left any profitable week. June 2008 and March 2005. 98.14% of the months produce a profitable week. Does anyone recall what was happening those two un-profitable months? Any Help... will be greatly appreciated. I will search myself also. I know 2008 was the year the market was systematelly going down due to the housing market and the derivaties packages. but March 2005??? I do not recall from the top of my head.
Everytihing is on the percentages of the Open, High, Low, and Close of every week of every month analysis. Since June 2003 to present (July 2012) only two months out of the total of 108 months, have not left any profitable week. June 2008 and March 2005. 98.14% of the months produce a profitable week. Does anyone recall what was happening those two un-profitable months? Any Help... will be greatly appreciated. I will search myself also. I know 2008 was the year the market was systematelly going down due to the housing market and the derivaties packages. but March 2005??? I do not recall from the top of my head.
TSPIntel
Member
Monthly Average Daily Chart of the IWM
View attachment IWM_SEASONALITY_JULY_DAYS_CHARTS.XLX.xls
Not sure I was able to upload the MS Excel file.
View attachment IWM_SEASONALITY_JULY_DAYS_CHARTS.XLX.xls
Not sure I was able to upload the MS Excel file.
