Tspgo_com Account Talk

[tspgo_com]

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cowboy wrote:

I got a question TSPGO? Do you use your system like a buy and hold and have so much that you stick in each account when your system says to? How do you determine how much to stick in each fund? Just like whiskey give it to me straight. My thought is if I believe in something I make a move and take it. 5% in the F fund doesn't seem like much of a commitment. When I got hitched I thought I was only commiting 5% of the time but then she told me otherwise.

The max allocation for each fund at any given time usingthe 5-5-10 isF=5, C=25, S=30,I=40. It is not a buy and hold system per se. It seemslike buy and hold when the market is in a defined trend (up or down).In a trending market you could findyourself making transactions almost on a daily basis until the trend is defined. The allocationcame about determining volatility, potentialrisks, rate ofreturns and diversification. Someonewith small account might not see the benefit in investingsuch small amount in the F-Fund. The bottom line is not risking everything in a particular fund at any given time.

It is really important to stick to the rule. A month later and a couple of thousands down the drain, I am still kicking myself for trying to outsmart the system looking for a bottom that was not there. On 3-15-05 when the signalwasto be G-100 I changed my mind and went G-30- C- 35 S-35. (see post on 3-14-05 and 3-15-05) Quite an expensive mistake. I have beenplaying catchup since then.

Good luck.

 

[cowboy]

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I guess most of us are playing catch up. Now the next question. It is my thinking that this system will produce a sell signal today. So will you follow that and sell the shares you bought at a higher amount than jump back in when it shows a buy signal at the next raise on a buy signal hoping the market trends? Isn't that what the system does? This system will pay off long term I believe as it will take you in & out until the market trends. It may not be the best system but I do believe it will work and obviously it does or you wouldn't do it. You just have to learn to take your greedy emotions out of it.

 

[TEUFEL HUNDEN]

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Yeah, thanks for the 5-10 rule, you saved me a ton of money:^

 

[tspgo_com]

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04-22: The F-Fund triggered a Buy Signal.


IFT order entered at 11:00 pm on 04-22-05 = (before noon 04-25-05)


Position TSPEffective COB: 04-25-05:

G = 0 F= 5 C= 35 S= 20 I = 40

TSPGO!

 

[tspgo_com]

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Current Signals: The C and S Funds triggered a Buy Signal on 04-25-05 (see charts at http://www.tspgo.com).

F and I = Wait to Sell.


Already invested as follows: G = 0; F= 5; C= 35; S= 20; I = 40. No change in my current position

TSPGO!

 

[cowboy]

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Don't you mean wait to sell F & I, TSPGO?

 

[tspgo_com]

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cowboy wrote:

Don't you mean wait to sell F & I, TSPGO?

Yes. Thanks Cowboy for the observation and for letting me know.

TSPGO!

 

[tspgo_com]

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I guessthe market is trying toget rid offthe bulls and the bears, clearing out all the short term trading positions and shaking off the weak hands before moving back up.We have been waiting for a meaninful rebound for quite sometime but it has not come. As of COB 4/29/05: G=100%

It seems thatthe 1118 - 1125support is in the picture. If the S&P goes down to1118 - 1125 the expected rally to the 1230+ would be sort of flusheddown the drain. So far the damage is so great that I am having serious doubts that we will seethe 1200's again in the near future.

Plan: No more expectations of a coming reobund. No more bottom chasing. WYSIWYG. All IFT's will be strictlyby the book following the 5-5-10 Rule.

Good luck to you all!

IFT before noon 04-29-04: G= 100%

 

[Guest]

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tspgo_com wrote:

So far the damage is so great that I am having serious doubts that we will seethe 1200's again in the near future.

Same here.

 

[tspgo_com]

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04-29-05: The C-Fund triggered a Buy Signal.

IFT order entered at 10:30 pm on 04-29-05 = (Before noon on05-02-05)


G = 75

C = 25

TSPGO!

 

[tspgo_com]

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greg wrote:

tspgo_com wrote:

So far the damage is so great that I am having serious doubts that we will seethe 1200's again in the near future.

Same here.

I really would hate to sound as a pessimist. However, I don't think we are out of the woods yet. The close on Thursday had everything pointing down. It would not be a surprise to see the S&P on its way down to the 1120-1125 area this week. A closer look at the 150 minutes chart reveals it is still congesting. No trend has been defined. The S&P is only 4 points above the 20 day MA (1153) and six points below what has turned out to be a brick wall (1163). All this point to 1125 as the next rebound point. The 5-5-10 Rule triggered a buy signal on Friday. I am expecting a drop on Monday (Buy Low), rebound on Tuesday or Wednesday (Sell High), followed by a catastrophe on Thursday or Friday. Regardless wich way it goes and I hope I am wrong about the downward move, I will be surfing the wave on the 5-5-10 Rule.

Good luck!

TSPGO!

 

[Birchtree]

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TSPGO Can you tell if the sp500 is forming a W bottom in this area? Look back at the move in late 1998. Presently the sp500 and utility index refuse to confirm the lows posted by Dow and Transports. I think we are getting ready to rocket up out of this hole we are in on the trip to sp500 at 1400, or more precisely perhaps better than 1527.46. I believe the Fed will bump one more .25 and then signal a holding pattern. We have several nonconfirmations of the bear case-this has been a painful correction in an ongoing bull market with plenty of upside left. I only wisk the sp500 had a larger holding of energy today than it does. Birchtree

 

[tspgo_com]

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Birchtree wrote:

TSPGO Can you tell if the sp500 is forming a W bottom in this area? Look back at the move in late 1998. Presently the sp500 and utility index refuse to confirm the lows posted by Dow and Transports. I think we are getting ready to rocket up out of this hole we are in on the trip to sp500 at 1400, or more precisely perhaps better than 1527.46. I believe the Fed will bump one more .25 and then signal a holding pattern. We have several nonconfirmations of the bear case-this has been a painful correction in an ongoing bull market with plenty of upside left. I only wisk the sp500 had a larger holding of energy today than it does. Birchtree

Birchtree:


I commend your optimism. I definitely don't see 1400 in the near future. You are right. TA points to a rebound somewhere from around here then a HUGE drop. It seems we are in a Reverse Symmetrical Triangle (RST) where the next bottom is between 1118-1125. After the rebound, let it be from here or from the 1125 area, the highest I expect is somewhere in the 1250 area then big collapse. As for now, the last two weeks it has gone nowhere. Lots of volatility within a range and nothing to indicate that this trending is over (see green circle on chart).

 

[tspgo_com]

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05-02-05: The F-Fund and the S-Fund triggered Buy Signals. (see charts at http://www.tspgo.com)

IFT order entered at 08:02 pm on 05-02-05 = (Before noon on05-03-05)


G = 40: F = 05; C = 25; S= 30

TSPGO!

 

[tspgo_com]

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05-03-05: The I-Fundtriggered a Buy Signal.

IFT order entered at 08:05 pm on 05-03-05 = (Before noon on05-04-05). See chart at http://www.tspgo.com


G = 0 F = 05 C = 25 S = 30 I = 40

TSPGO!

 

[tspgo_com]

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05-06-05: The F-Fundtriggered a Sell Signal. (see chart at http://www.tspgo.com)

IFT order entered at 07:55 pm on 05-06-05 = (Before noon on05-09-05)


G = 5 F = 00 C = 25 S = 30 I = 40

TSPGO!

 

[tspgo_com]

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05-09-05: The S-Fundtriggered a count of 4 Sell Signal. (see 5-5-10 Rule at http://www.tspgo.com)

IFT order entered at 08:30 pm on 05-09-05 = (Before noon on05-10-05)


G = 35 F = 00 C = 25 S = 00 I = 40

TSPGO!

 

[FundSurfer]

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A couple questions about your system:

1. You seem to have maximums in each fund that you do not exceed. When you sold S-fund you put it all in G even though C and S still were in buy?Have you considered not using fund maximums? Maybe shifting into C or S in this situation rather than I?

2. Looking at your curve following approach, could you look at the slope of the curve to see which fund is hotter and perhaps weight your allocation percentages accordingly?

Don't get me wrong, I like very much what you are doing. I'm a tinker at heart am always looking at possible improvements.

 

[tspgo_com]

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FundSurfer wrote:

A couple questions about your system:

1. You seem to have maximums in each fund that you do not exceed. When you sold S-fund you put it all in G even though C and S still were in buy?Have you considered not using fund maximums? Maybe shifting into C or S in this situation rather than I?

2. Looking at your curve following approach, could you look at the slope of the curve to see which fund is hotter and perhaps weight your allocation percentages accordingly?

Don't get me wrong, I like very much what you are doing. I'm a tinker at heart am always looking at possible improvements.

The max allocation for each fund at any given time usingthe 5-5-10 Rule should be F=5, C=25, S=30,I=40. In a trending market it seems as if you aremaking transactions almostdaily. It happensuntil the trend is defined. The allocationcame about calculating volatility, potentialrisks, rate ofreturns and diversification.

Someonewith small account might not see the benefit in investingsuch small amount in the F-Fund. The bottom line is not risking everything in a particular fund at any given time and trading each fund independently, as a single account, based on its behavior.

I am not sure I understand using the slope of the curve todetermine allocation percentages. Would you PM with a hypothetical situation?.

Thank you for your comments.

TSPGO!

 

[FundSurfer]

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Slope of the curve is how fast the trend is moving up or down. A higher slope means a fund that is gaining ground quicker. You could approximate slope by averaging the percent gain/loss over say the previous 10 days. Compare that number between funds and you would have an idea which fund is gaining/losing quicker. Right now you are looking at slope to make your decision. I think you are mainly just looking at whether the slope is positive or negative over the last few days by looking at your moving averages. I'm just suggesting the magnitude of the moving average gain might play a role in deciding how much to put where.