Tspgo_com Account Talk

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tspgo_com wrote:
The S&P 500 hit the 1197 support line. TA indicates that there should be a fast parabolic rebound from these levels to the 1260+. The ideal thing to do is to buy and hold. Also, consider the possibilty that if it does not turn around tomorrow, it might go down to kiss the 1175-1179 support line. The lower it goes the faster the rebound to reach the top of the last leg of this bull market. The top should be reach by the last week in November. Everything is not lost. We should be able to get back everything plus more.

10-05-05: The S and the I-Fund triggered a sell signal. See charts at http://www.tspgo.com

IFT Request entered before noon 10-06-05


G = 100 F = 00 C = 00 S = 00 I = 00

TSPGO!
Click to expand...
The above message was posted on 10-05-05. It has been a rough ride but we got back everything plus more..

Keep in mind that TSP (the market) gives it and the TSP (market) takes it away. Don't be overconfident about seasonality. Take at least 50% of your profits off the table.

Thank you all for all the fun.

TPGO Returns:
Low Risk: 12.80% - 11 IFT's
5-5-10 Rule: 4.94% - 93 IFT''s
High Risk: 12.05% - 89 IFT's

TSPGO!
 
imported post

[align=center]C=Fund last prices: 13.71 ==> 13.68 ==> 13.70 ==>13.63 ==>13.62 ==> (Watch it carefully. It's break out time. If it goes down, stay out or get out. Next stop should be 13.52. If it goes up stay in or buy more. Resolution should be tomorrow (12/08/05)[/align]


cfund051208talk.gif


12-08-05: The F- Fund and the S - Fund triggered a Buy Signal. See charts at http://www.tspgo.com

IFT Request entered before noon 12-09-05


G = 25 F = 5 C = 00 S = 30 I =40

TSPGO!
 
imported post

2/12/05: The F-Fund triggered a Sell Signal. The I-Fund triggered a count of 4 Sell Signal. The C-Fund triggered a Buy Signal. See charts at http://www.tspgo.com

IFT Request entered before noon 12-13-05


G = 45 F = 00 C = 25 S = 30 I =00

TSPGO!
 
imported post

Merry Christmas and a Great Happy New Year to All.

Thank you for all the fun!

I guess it is time to sit back, relax and enjoy the holidays.

Consider and remember the Reason for the season. The birth of our Lord Jesus. Born to set mankind free and to bring the gift of salvation to all who acept Him as their savior.

MERRY CHRISTMAS!!!!

As for the market consider seriously parking 50% in G and 50% in F until the New Year. It would remove part of the stress worrying about what is ahead for the remaining of this year.

Happy New Year!!
 
imported post

Merry Christmas tspgo, thanks for your post, enjoyed following your moves, hope you will consider joining us for 2006 as well. V-man
 
imported post

tspgo,

I'm a new memberand just looked through a few of your early postings. You dedicate a lot of time on your system and provide for free for othersand I'm applauded for that. I just wonder how well your system works with the tsp allocation. Can you post your YTD returns.

Thanks,

ocean
 
imported post

12/31/2005

WHAT'S AHEAD

2005 is come and gone and 2006 is here.

2006 will be a rocky ride. There seems to be not much to expect from the C-Fund (S&P) in 2006. S-Fund is looking good for this coming year.

We learned a lot from each other and from the market this past year. If we apply what we learned we should be able to come ahead and with better returns in 2006 than what we got in 2005 regardless of market conditions

As for TSPGO, We have made a couple of adjustments to the system to achieve better returns regardless of the market poor prognosis for this coming year.

We have taken the best of our 5-5-10 Rule and the best from our Low Risk Strategy and put them together. I am very optimistic of what will be coming out of it. Also, I am committed to follow and to act on the signals regardless of feelings or what the street chatters might say. It hurt some when we tried to outsmart the system.

Allocations will be determined by the system instead of following the 5-25-30-40 as in the 5-5-10 Rule or the 100% as in the Low Risk.

Our Goals:

1.- 20% or better if market conditions remains the same as 2005

2.- Outperform the S or the I-Fund by at least 5% if market conditions become better than expected.

3.- Decrease the number of IFT's

4.- Have fun.

Current Signals:

1.- All indicators are in negative territory for the C, S, and I.

2.- The F-Fund is still in positive territory.

Current Position:
1.- Continue holding 50% G and 50% F

Happy New Year to All!!

 
imported post

tspgo,

I woke up early this morningafter having a niceNew Year Eve party last night and still have some alcohol counts in my blood stream. Happy New Year to you and your family.

Amazingly the TSPTalk site has been my most visited site for the last 10 days since I joined on Dec 22, 05. I spent over an hour to view through your early posts from the beginning through the end of Sep 05. (Well, from Oct on the market was kind of on the up side). From those posts that you were correctly callingthe dangerous down trend and made the right calls. Nice work.

I'm not trying to use TSPtalk site to talk about your own work with your site to create some un-necessary competition situation. BTW, Tom of TSPtalk has been so great and so professionally handled all responses that the attentionsyou created in his site. You both are great. I strongly believe thatboth of you want to shareyour idea ,work and successwith us soall ofus would benefit from it.

I'm just an average investor and don't knowaboutcharting and I think this is a must for TA in the stock market. Would you recommand some good books about this area so I can learn a bit not just in TSP account but also on the non-TSP investment. Or may be you can expand your site to teach a few things in TA (just a thought.)

For 2006, I will be closely tracking your move to aid my decision on my TSP account. Again, thanksTom and you for sharing.

Ocean
 
Thank You.

Hi Ocean:

Welcome and Happy New Year to you too.

First let me clarify something. I trust and I believe that nobody on this board thinks that what I do is to compete with Tom. I have clearly expressed that if I had found this website before I got myself involved developing TSPGO, I would not have done it. I have great respect and admiration for Tom and for what he has done coming up with the idea and maintaining this website. Also, there are many outstanding individuals members of this board that make this website unique. Many of them helped me a great deal when I joined this board.

It is true that I don't read every post but I am not aware of anybody who thinks that what I do is to compete with what goes on here. In my posts I make a reference to www.tspgo.com as to where to go and see the charts. I do it because I update my charts daily and it would be abusive if I uploaded all my charts to TSPtalk.com.

About recommended reading in TA, I will PM you.

As for what's ahead, Just keep your eyes open in January. Remember, that the market is driven, most of the time, by self-fulfilling prophesies. This month is not looking good. The fractal curve for the S&P is beginning to look like the recent move has come to an end and a new doward trend is on the making. Also the *Pi Cycle theory believes the market could reach its top in the last week in January, 2006.

I am looking into making a few quick-in-and out IFT's this month.

Again, thank you for your comments. And let's work together to come ahead in what appears to be a difficult year for the market.




ocean said:
tspgo,

I woke up early this morningafter having a niceNew Year Eve party last night and still have some alcohol counts in my blood stream. Happy New Year to you and your family.

Amazingly the TSPTalk site has been my most visited site for the last 10 days since I joined on Dec 22, 05. I spent over an hour to view through your early posts from the beginning through the end of Sep 05. (Well, from Oct on the market was kind of on the up side). From those posts that you were correctly callingthe dangerous down trend and made the right calls. Nice work.

I'm not trying to use TSPtalk site to talk about your own work with your site to create some un-necessary competition situation. BTW, Tom of TSPtalk has been so great and so professionally handled all responses that the attentionsyou created in his site. You both are great. I strongly believe thatboth of you want to shareyour idea ,work and successwith us soall ofus would benefit from it.

I'm just an average investor and don't knowaboutcharting and I think this is a must for TA in the stock market. Would you recommand some good books about this area so I can learn a bit not just in TSP account but also on the non-TSP investment. Or may be you can expand your site to teach a few things in TA (just a thought.)

For 2006, I will be closely tracking your move to aid my decision on my TSP account. Again, thanksTom and you for sharing.

Ocean
Click to expand...
 
Last edited:
01/04/06: All funds have triggered buy signals. See charts at http://www.tspgo.com

IFT Request entered before noon 01-05-06


5-5-10 Rule: F = 40 C = 20 S = 20 I =20

TSPGO!

Note: High Risk: C = 30, S = 30, I = 40
 
TSPGO - Looks like your formula has changed.

Your current allocation has 40% F. Your 5-5-10 rule used to have you going 5%F didn't it? And different numbers for the other funds as well.

How are you determining allocation percentages this year? We talked briefly at one time about using the slope of the moving average as a decision tool for where to weight fund allocations. Are you using something like that? (I am.)

Keep up the good work. I appreciate your graphs.
 
The New 5-5-10 Rule

Hi FundSurfer:

Yes. You are right. The max used to be 5% F, 25% C, 30% S and 40% I.

The reason for the change was because I was quite disappointed with the number of IFT's vs the return. I decided to take the best out of the Low Risk Strategy and the best out of the High Risk Strategy and incorporate them into the 5-5-10 Rule with the objective to decrease the number of IFT's and increase the return and while retaining the safety factor of the 5-5-10 Rule.

To reach that goal I had added two more parameters to confirm the timeliness of the IFT's.

Allow me to illustrate one of the parameters with the attached graph. These two graphs correspond to the last 51 days of the S-Fund. The old 5-5-10 Rule generated 7 buy signals (blue vertical lines) and and it gave up a significant percentage of the profit. The new 5-5-10 Rule triggered two buy signals (blue vertical lines) in the same time period while retaining all the profit. The allocation is determined by the strenght of the the trend.

(If the attachment does not work, see the graph at this link http://www.tspgo.com/images/sfund060105ftalk.gif

Good luck and thanks for the encouragement.

TSPGO!
 
tspgo_com said:
The allocation is determined by the strenght of the the trend.
Click to expand...

I think when you say strength of the trend, you are saying the same thing as slope of the moving average. Based on your graph, you would allocate more to S in the first section (of low risk top graph) base on the strength of the trend in the lower graph (greater slope of the sma) than in the second section which has lower slope.

The strength of the trend changes as time goes along. That will mean more changes in allocation (more ift) not fewer? Right? Tweaking, so to speak. If you look at how teckno moves, he uses a slow changing tweaking approach but does have fewer moves.

My using slope (trend strength) as a guide for my own method, gives me a different allocation (slight tweek) each day. I don't change that often, but I haven't settled on how often to reallocate. Right now I'm leaning toward some minimum percentage change before I'll reallocate. Have you given this any thought yet?
 
That will mean more changes in allocation (more ift) not fewer? Right?

After doing a back testing of last year data, the number of IFT's will be cut by at least 50%. I have divided the trend graph into three percentile areas. Allocations will be determined by the percentile where the trend is residing. Also depending where the trend is residing it will determine if an IFT will be performed. IFT's triggered by SMA's crossing need to be confirmed by the trend graph. IFT's triggered by the 5-days up need to be confirmed by the trend graph. Getting backing in after a 5 days-up sell would need to be confirmed by the trend graphs. The combination of the parameters will prevent premature IFT's or getting back in too soon or too late. My expectation is that IFT's will be reduced significantly.

So we might be talking about the same thing but all things being equal, the number of losing IFT's will be reduced. I do not know how to derive the strength of the slope. I think last time I heard the term "strength of the slope" was way back when I took geometry and trigonometry back in college (and that was a long time ago)

Good luck and ... again thank you for sharing.
 
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