TommyIV is on vacation this weekend so I (Tom Crowley, tsptalk) will be filling in for him for a quick weekly wrap up.
We came into this past week with stocks due for some kind of a relief rally and we saw the usual positive Monday - it was the 8th straight positive Monday for the S&P 500 - but then we also got what we'd been seeing in prior weeks - a sell off on Tuesday. Wednesdays have been weak in August as well, but we got a pre Nvidia earnings release rally that day and, after Nvidia delivered a strong report after the bell Wednesday, it triggered a strong positive open on Thursday, but that rally started to wane almost immediately.
Jerome's Powell's Jackson Hole Speech triggered some wild responses on Friday, but in the end the bulls made a run into the close to give most of the stocks indices a gain for the day, and that salvaged a positive week for all of the TSP funds.
Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending August 25. The positive week helped, but you can see the hefty losses that we still have for the month of August in both the stock and bond funds.
The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) nearly broke out after the release of the Nvidia earnings early on Thursday morning, but a nasty negative reversal eventually took the SPY to the lows of the day creating a negative outside reversal day. These are not good signs going forward but the market did manage a positive reversal day after Jerome Powell spoke. The chart remains below the key 50-day EMA. It looks like the bears are still in control, and this week it may take a push, and close, above about 445 to change that.
The DWCPF (S-fund) had a good day on Friday after Thursday's negative reversal, and that kept it above the important 200-day EMA yet again, although it is still in the neighborhood so the bulls need to build on that support or the bears will really take control. On Friday it closed just below some key resistance which will be tested immediately on Monday.
The EFA (I-fund) is in the same boat dancing along that important 200-day EMA. A breakdown opens the door to a support-less sell off, so if the bulls are interested in this here near the average, it may be now or never.
BND (Bonds / F-fund) gapped up last Tuesday and since then it has moved sideways leaving the gap open. We can see the overhead resistance and the descending support narrowing at an apex. If that gap gets filled the support will be tested, and that is very possible, although these falling wedges have a habit of breaking to the upside. A break above 71.20 would not only save this chart, but possibly the stock market as well.
Good luck and thanks for reading! We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at TSP Talk - Market Commentary. If you need some help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our premium services can help.
Tom Crowley filling in for TommyIV
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
We came into this past week with stocks due for some kind of a relief rally and we saw the usual positive Monday - it was the 8th straight positive Monday for the S&P 500 - but then we also got what we'd been seeing in prior weeks - a sell off on Tuesday. Wednesdays have been weak in August as well, but we got a pre Nvidia earnings release rally that day and, after Nvidia delivered a strong report after the bell Wednesday, it triggered a strong positive open on Thursday, but that rally started to wane almost immediately.
Jerome's Powell's Jackson Hole Speech triggered some wild responses on Friday, but in the end the bulls made a run into the close to give most of the stocks indices a gain for the day, and that salvaged a positive week for all of the TSP funds.
Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending August 25. The positive week helped, but you can see the hefty losses that we still have for the month of August in both the stock and bond funds.
The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) nearly broke out after the release of the Nvidia earnings early on Thursday morning, but a nasty negative reversal eventually took the SPY to the lows of the day creating a negative outside reversal day. These are not good signs going forward but the market did manage a positive reversal day after Jerome Powell spoke. The chart remains below the key 50-day EMA. It looks like the bears are still in control, and this week it may take a push, and close, above about 445 to change that.
The DWCPF (S-fund) had a good day on Friday after Thursday's negative reversal, and that kept it above the important 200-day EMA yet again, although it is still in the neighborhood so the bulls need to build on that support or the bears will really take control. On Friday it closed just below some key resistance which will be tested immediately on Monday.
The EFA (I-fund) is in the same boat dancing along that important 200-day EMA. A breakdown opens the door to a support-less sell off, so if the bulls are interested in this here near the average, it may be now or never.
BND (Bonds / F-fund) gapped up last Tuesday and since then it has moved sideways leaving the gap open. We can see the overhead resistance and the descending support narrowing at an apex. If that gap gets filled the support will be tested, and that is very possible, although these falling wedges have a habit of breaking to the upside. A break above 71.20 would not only save this chart, but possibly the stock market as well.
Good luck and thanks for reading! We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at TSP Talk - Market Commentary. If you need some help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our premium services can help.
Tom Crowley filling in for TommyIV
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
Facebook | Twitter
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
