The bears finally made a move on Thursday, but it wasn't like the bulls laid down and let them have their way. The indices were mostly negative after a deep morning sell off, but there was some buying in the afternoon. Small caps got slammed again despite a dip in yields yesterday, but the I-fund rallied with help from a sharp decline in the dollar.
Here's the intraday chart of the S&P 500 which shows that while we saw a moderate loss by the close, the lows came at 10 AM ET when the selling stabilized, and after noon ET, the bulls started buying. It doesn't tell us a whole lot but it does create a positive reversal on the daily chart.
Here is that daily chart of the S&P 500 (C-fund) and it shows that kangaroo tail positive reversal. Those reversal do work better as short-term indicators when the day actually closes positive, so this is good but maybe not great. Another good sign was that the December high breakout level near 6100 was able to hold by the close so that remains a solid area of support until the bears can prove otherwise.
The 10-year Treasury Yield was down yesterday helping the F-fund to another modest gain, but it was the dollar's weakness that got the attention after a 0.65% decline. It has now retraced that huge breakout candle day from back in December. This could be an area of support, otherwise we have a new official downtrend with this new lower low that followed recent lower highs.
This weakness has been the main reason that the I-fund has been outperforming this year.
I am still watching the market leading Dow Transportation Index as it plays out the head and shoulders pattern using the 200-day moving average as support. The recent rally above the right shoulder is what they call a head test, and so far that has held, which is bearish, but the 50-day EMA was tested again and it held as support.
This chart doesn't look great for the short-term if this head and shoulders plays out the way they typically do, but I suppose as long as that 50-day EMA holds as support, and the 50-day EMA remains above the 200-day EMA, the bulls have a chance to turn this chart around to the upside.
We talked about the S&P 500 (C-fund) above.
DWCPF (S-fund) fell sharply and closed below the 50-day EMA again yesterday, but it is still in that bullish looking flag and we knew a test of the lower end of the flag was possible. 2320 looks like it could be support but 2300 is where the 100-day EMA is sitting and it also happens to be where the open gap is, although technically 2280 could be the bottom of that gap - the close on January 14.
ACWX (the I-fund tracking index) popped right back up yesterday after Wednesday's sell off. As we said in yesterday's commentary, all we have seen is one or two day pullbacks, and you had to be quick to buy the dip. The all time high on this chart is just above 57 from back in late September (not shown), so it is getting close, and that may be where this finally takes a proper break.
BND (F-fund) has been up 4 of the last 5 days but the down day was severe and it is still down for the week as it has been consolidating more than rallying. Still, there is a bull flag forming and the 50-day EMA is still trying to hold as support. It doesn't look bad, but like some of the other charts, support has to hold or the chart turns negative again.
Thanks so much for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We may use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
| Daily TSP Funds Return
More returns |
Here's the intraday chart of the S&P 500 which shows that while we saw a moderate loss by the close, the lows came at 10 AM ET when the selling stabilized, and after noon ET, the bulls started buying. It doesn't tell us a whole lot but it does create a positive reversal on the daily chart.
Here is that daily chart of the S&P 500 (C-fund) and it shows that kangaroo tail positive reversal. Those reversal do work better as short-term indicators when the day actually closes positive, so this is good but maybe not great. Another good sign was that the December high breakout level near 6100 was able to hold by the close so that remains a solid area of support until the bears can prove otherwise.
The 10-year Treasury Yield was down yesterday helping the F-fund to another modest gain, but it was the dollar's weakness that got the attention after a 0.65% decline. It has now retraced that huge breakout candle day from back in December. This could be an area of support, otherwise we have a new official downtrend with this new lower low that followed recent lower highs.
This weakness has been the main reason that the I-fund has been outperforming this year.
I am still watching the market leading Dow Transportation Index as it plays out the head and shoulders pattern using the 200-day moving average as support. The recent rally above the right shoulder is what they call a head test, and so far that has held, which is bearish, but the 50-day EMA was tested again and it held as support.
This chart doesn't look great for the short-term if this head and shoulders plays out the way they typically do, but I suppose as long as that 50-day EMA holds as support, and the 50-day EMA remains above the 200-day EMA, the bulls have a chance to turn this chart around to the upside.
We talked about the S&P 500 (C-fund) above.
DWCPF (S-fund) fell sharply and closed below the 50-day EMA again yesterday, but it is still in that bullish looking flag and we knew a test of the lower end of the flag was possible. 2320 looks like it could be support but 2300 is where the 100-day EMA is sitting and it also happens to be where the open gap is, although technically 2280 could be the bottom of that gap - the close on January 14.
ACWX (the I-fund tracking index) popped right back up yesterday after Wednesday's sell off. As we said in yesterday's commentary, all we have seen is one or two day pullbacks, and you had to be quick to buy the dip. The all time high on this chart is just above 57 from back in late September (not shown), so it is getting close, and that may be where this finally takes a proper break.
BND (F-fund) has been up 4 of the last 5 days but the down day was severe and it is still down for the week as it has been consolidating more than rallying. Still, there is a bull flag forming and the 50-day EMA is still trying to hold as support. It doesn't look bad, but like some of the other charts, support has to hold or the chart turns negative again.
Thanks so much for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We may use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
