The futures were in the red on Thursday morning until those weekly jobless claims numbers came out, and then it was off to the races. There's a lot of volatility out there so you never know if yesterday's gains will hold, but that was quite a reaction to slightly better than expected weekly jobs data after the big miss on the monthly report last week. However, stocks did get oversold and snap back rallies can be explosive.
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I am going to keep this paragraph up this week as a reminder -- I am on vacation this week, and this is typical market action when I take a vacation. I have said this a few times already but it's uncanny how this happens whenever I try to take a little time off. I plan to make a brief update each day here, to keep myself informed in this environment. My email correspondence may be a little slow but I will attempt to check it a couple of times each day. The AutoTracker updates may not be on its normal schedule either. My apologies in for any inconvenience.
Well, they got me. As our Plus subscribers know, I did some partial selling on Wednesday morning when stocks were up big, thinking I was locking in gains for the day, but as we saw, stocks sold off into Wednesday's close ensuring a loss by the close after a 111-point move down in the S&P 500 from the morning highs to close where I sold. That's one of the joys of our 12 noon ET deadline - it takes at least 4 hours to know the price you are buying or selling, and you can't change your mind no matter what happens during that time.
Did one weekly report change the entire economic dynamic? Probably not, but this is how emotions control volatile markets as extreme fear turned into FOMO in a hurry.
Because the gains were so big yesterday, I did make some decent money yesterday, but the big one got away from me. The question is, will the bulls hold onto this money next week with the economy's strength still in question?
The trading volume during the big gain yesterday was on the light side so it's difficult to trust.
Thanks for putting up with my vacation week. I will be back in the office on Monday.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) rallied big on Thursday, although it didn't quite get back to Wednesday's highs. There is some room above before it fills in that first gap , and there is another large open gap up by 5450 that could also be a target, but there is a lot of resistance in between. The biggest rewards come to those who take the biggest chances and with volatility this high, the risks are still high. The charts did improve but this chart is still broken for now.
Thanks so much for reading! And thank you for putting up with my vacation-shortened commentary this week. Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
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I am going to keep this paragraph up this week as a reminder -- I am on vacation this week, and this is typical market action when I take a vacation. I have said this a few times already but it's uncanny how this happens whenever I try to take a little time off. I plan to make a brief update each day here, to keep myself informed in this environment. My email correspondence may be a little slow but I will attempt to check it a couple of times each day. The AutoTracker updates may not be on its normal schedule either. My apologies in for any inconvenience.
Well, they got me. As our Plus subscribers know, I did some partial selling on Wednesday morning when stocks were up big, thinking I was locking in gains for the day, but as we saw, stocks sold off into Wednesday's close ensuring a loss by the close after a 111-point move down in the S&P 500 from the morning highs to close where I sold. That's one of the joys of our 12 noon ET deadline - it takes at least 4 hours to know the price you are buying or selling, and you can't change your mind no matter what happens during that time.
Did one weekly report change the entire economic dynamic? Probably not, but this is how emotions control volatile markets as extreme fear turned into FOMO in a hurry.
Because the gains were so big yesterday, I did make some decent money yesterday, but the big one got away from me. The question is, will the bulls hold onto this money next week with the economy's strength still in question?
The trading volume during the big gain yesterday was on the light side so it's difficult to trust.
Thanks for putting up with my vacation week. I will be back in the office on Monday.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) rallied big on Thursday, although it didn't quite get back to Wednesday's highs. There is some room above before it fills in that first gap , and there is another large open gap up by 5450 that could also be a target, but there is a lot of resistance in between. The biggest rewards come to those who take the biggest chances and with volatility this high, the risks are still high. The charts did improve but this chart is still broken for now.
Thanks so much for reading! And thank you for putting up with my vacation-shortened commentary this week. Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
