The Wednesday before Thanksgiving saw a typical seasonally bullish day as stocks rallied heading into the holiday. The Dow gained 185-points with gains near 0.5% in the three major indices, while the back and forth of the small small caps saw them leading again. Bonds were up slightly as yields dipped a bit.
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Quick update today...
That 0.41% gain in the S&P 500 was par for the course for the Wednesday before Thanksgiving as it is inline with the 62 year average from 1950 through 2011. Tomorrow has a similar record during that time, but...
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
... here's some data from after 2011. It's only for Tuesday through Friday of this week, so not much help going forward, but notice that the Friday after Thanksgiving has been down 4 of the last 5 years, with 2021 being down over 2%, and it actually has a negative average return since 2012.
The S&P 500 has come a long way since the late October lows and has almost recovered all of the losses since the July peak, but there is some resistance in the area.
The stock market is only open until 1 PM ET today, but the TSP is accepting transactions through noon ET as usual.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) officially filled the overhead open gap that was coming off the July peak. There are three major open gaps below and the angle of incline doesn't look sustainable, but it's tough to count the bulls out as we haven't seen a reaction to the Fed pausing a series of rate hikes in many, many years, so this is new emotional territory for the stock market. Yes, a recession could be in the cards for next year, but right now everyone seems more focused on a Santa Claus rally continuing, even though it's too early for that.
Thanks so much for reading! Have a great Thanksgiving weekend, and we'll see you back here on Monday.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
Daily Market Commentary Archives
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
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[TD="width: 338, align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return
[TR]
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[/TR]
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[/TR]
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Quick update today...
That 0.41% gain in the S&P 500 was par for the course for the Wednesday before Thanksgiving as it is inline with the 62 year average from 1950 through 2011. Tomorrow has a similar record during that time, but...
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
... here's some data from after 2011. It's only for Tuesday through Friday of this week, so not much help going forward, but notice that the Friday after Thanksgiving has been down 4 of the last 5 years, with 2021 being down over 2%, and it actually has a negative average return since 2012.
The S&P 500 has come a long way since the late October lows and has almost recovered all of the losses since the July peak, but there is some resistance in the area.
The stock market is only open until 1 PM ET today, but the TSP is accepting transactions through noon ET as usual.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) officially filled the overhead open gap that was coming off the July peak. There are three major open gaps below and the angle of incline doesn't look sustainable, but it's tough to count the bulls out as we haven't seen a reaction to the Fed pausing a series of rate hikes in many, many years, so this is new emotional territory for the stock market. Yes, a recession could be in the cards for next year, but right now everyone seems more focused on a Santa Claus rally continuing, even though it's too early for that.
Thanks so much for reading! Have a great Thanksgiving weekend, and we'll see you back here on Monday.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
Daily Market Commentary Archives
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
