Stocks soared for a second straight day, baffling many as chaos was the word being buzzed around Wall Street for election week, but so far the market has dismissed that possibility. At least for a day. What happens after the election is probably what matters more. The Dow shot up another 555-points, and once again small caps led on the upside.
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Because I normally write this in the evening, the election results are not in as of this writing, so this is a little bit of rear-view mirror analysis, and by the time you read this the picture could completely change.
Yesterday was a huge positive day for the indices and for the internals which saw advancing volume beat declining on the NYSE by a 6 to 1 ratio, which was off the early figures, but still very strong.
I posted these prior election year charts yesterday, but I left only the ones that had strong bullish days on election day, which was in 2008 and 2016. You can see that the excitement didn't roll into the following days in those years.
The futures opened to the upside again by about 25 S&P 500 points so that negative pattern above may not occur this week, but of course we don't have the election results yet.
I don't know if any of you remember the futures market on election night 2016. It was the wildest trading session that I can ever remember. So, what I see in the futures now, may not have any resemblance to what we get to open the market in the morning.
These two days of rallying surprised me, and many others, and we know the market likes to fool as many people as it can. All the selling seemed to happen last week and there must not have been anyone left to sell. If you recall we had a positive reversal day on Friday, indicating that the selling may had started to dry up.
This week's rally may just be a snap-back, but the upside volume ratios are not anything to sneeze at. Those are bull market numbers so we'll see.
The October jobs report comes out on Friday and estimates are looking for a gain of about 675,000 jobs, and an unemployment rate of 7.7%.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) ran up to, and through the 50-day EMA yesterday, went up near the top of that descending trading channel, and also filled in the overhead open gap (blue), before things started to pullback a little, closed below the 50-day EMA, but huge gains turned into large gains, and I don't see the bulls complaining. There is a small gap opened near 3330.
The DWCPF (S-fund) also filled that large open gap and backed off but not before racking up a 2.55% monster gain on the day. There's a new gap below that the bulls have to be cognizant of, and even if that does get filled, it could remain above the 50-day EMA.
The High Yield Corporate Bond Fund had a big day and of course the stock market loves that. There could be some resistance in the area of 84.50, which could be near the top of possible range.
BND (F-fund) was flat to slightly lower as bond yields moved higher again. This chart remains near the lower end of that descending trading channel.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
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Because I normally write this in the evening, the election results are not in as of this writing, so this is a little bit of rear-view mirror analysis, and by the time you read this the picture could completely change.
Yesterday was a huge positive day for the indices and for the internals which saw advancing volume beat declining on the NYSE by a 6 to 1 ratio, which was off the early figures, but still very strong.
I posted these prior election year charts yesterday, but I left only the ones that had strong bullish days on election day, which was in 2008 and 2016. You can see that the excitement didn't roll into the following days in those years.
The futures opened to the upside again by about 25 S&P 500 points so that negative pattern above may not occur this week, but of course we don't have the election results yet.
I don't know if any of you remember the futures market on election night 2016. It was the wildest trading session that I can ever remember. So, what I see in the futures now, may not have any resemblance to what we get to open the market in the morning.
These two days of rallying surprised me, and many others, and we know the market likes to fool as many people as it can. All the selling seemed to happen last week and there must not have been anyone left to sell. If you recall we had a positive reversal day on Friday, indicating that the selling may had started to dry up.
This week's rally may just be a snap-back, but the upside volume ratios are not anything to sneeze at. Those are bull market numbers so we'll see.
The October jobs report comes out on Friday and estimates are looking for a gain of about 675,000 jobs, and an unemployment rate of 7.7%.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) ran up to, and through the 50-day EMA yesterday, went up near the top of that descending trading channel, and also filled in the overhead open gap (blue), before things started to pullback a little, closed below the 50-day EMA, but huge gains turned into large gains, and I don't see the bulls complaining. There is a small gap opened near 3330.
The DWCPF (S-fund) also filled that large open gap and backed off but not before racking up a 2.55% monster gain on the day. There's a new gap below that the bulls have to be cognizant of, and even if that does get filled, it could remain above the 50-day EMA.
The High Yield Corporate Bond Fund had a big day and of course the stock market loves that. There could be some resistance in the area of 84.50, which could be near the top of possible range.
BND (F-fund) was flat to slightly lower as bond yields moved higher again. This chart remains near the lower end of that descending trading channel.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
