Stocks opened nervously lower after some overnight geopolitical wrangling involving Russia's reaction the Ukraine using US missiles. It didn't take long however, for the bulls to jump on that dip and by the close, despite some weakness in the Dow and Transportation stocks again, the broader markets did well with the Nasdaq and small caps leading the way. Bonds were up as yields finally fell below rising support.
Meanwhile Lowes was down 4.6% on the day after reporting, and it needs to double bottom here, or it's in some technical trouble.
Target reports today, and that's another angle on the retail outlook.
And of course the highly anticipated earnings report from Nvidia will be reported after the closing bell tonight. It can be a major market mover and, until yesterday when it was up almost 5% on the day, it was leading the market pullback lower last week. I would have actually preferred to see it stay nervously lower heading into earnings because now we have a possible buy the rumor, sell the news set up. Rumors were that they are having trouble with their Blackwell chip overheating, but Jim Cramer thinks that was story was overblown to push the stock price lower into earnings. Yesterday's action certainly muddied that theory.
The 10-year Treasury Yield finally broke down below that rising trading channel. That helped the small caps lead yesterday. This doesn't necessarily mean yields are going to come straight down now, but at least it could be a sign that they are stabilizing and not on a runaway train higher.
The dollar was down for a third straight day yesterday, although yesterday's loss was minor. The I-fund is looking forward to a much needed pullback from the 7-week rally.
Admin Note: For those of you who like to browse or participate in the TSP Talk Forums, we were able to get the TapaTalk mobile version of the forum working with the new software. I know some of you had become accustomed to that. However, I think the new forum software actually looks great on mobile devises without a special app. That was part of the appeal of the new software. Just go straight to https://forum.tsptalk.com/
The S&P 500 (C-fund) tested and held again at support in the 5850 area, and now it is looking straight up at the open gap created last Friday. The top of that gap must get taken out to decrease the chances of the open gap down near 5780 from being filled in the near-term. It may be Nvidia's earnings report that makes or makes or breaks that outcome.
The DWCPF (S-fund) led the TSP funds with a nearly 1% gain yesterday. The 10 year yield breaking its uptrend helped here, and the top of that large open gap (red), as well as the 20-day average, and the top of the blue trading channel, continued to hold as support.
On Monday the ETF ACWX ETF was up 0.75% and the I-fund was given a 0.75% gain. That's encouraging, as we try to figure out which index or fund to use to track the I-fund during the day. I doubt it will be that easy, but we'll see.
ACWX was down 0.04% yesterday, so let's see what return the TSP gives the I-fund. The chart is sitting at a key support level.
You can see the updated TSP prices and returns posted by about 8:15 PM ET daily here: https://www.tsptalk.com/tsp_share_prices.php
BND (bonds / F-fund) is making another attempt to breakout of the long descending trading channel, and with the 10-year Yield breaking down yesterday, the odds of that happening just increased.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
| Daily TSP Funds Return 
More returns |
Wal-Mart and Lowe's report earnings yesterday and the results were mixed, not giving us too much to go on except maybe that people are bargain hunting more than they are doing home improvement projects. Wal-Mart was up 3% on the day and made a new closing high, but the action wasn't very comforting as it closed well off the highs creating a negative reversal kangaroo tail, and it failed to hold an early breakout above the rising channel.
Meanwhile Lowes was down 4.6% on the day after reporting, and it needs to double bottom here, or it's in some technical trouble.
Target reports today, and that's another angle on the retail outlook.
And of course the highly anticipated earnings report from Nvidia will be reported after the closing bell tonight. It can be a major market mover and, until yesterday when it was up almost 5% on the day, it was leading the market pullback lower last week. I would have actually preferred to see it stay nervously lower heading into earnings because now we have a possible buy the rumor, sell the news set up. Rumors were that they are having trouble with their Blackwell chip overheating, but Jim Cramer thinks that was story was overblown to push the stock price lower into earnings. Yesterday's action certainly muddied that theory.
The 10-year Treasury Yield finally broke down below that rising trading channel. That helped the small caps lead yesterday. This doesn't necessarily mean yields are going to come straight down now, but at least it could be a sign that they are stabilizing and not on a runaway train higher.
The dollar was down for a third straight day yesterday, although yesterday's loss was minor. The I-fund is looking forward to a much needed pullback from the 7-week rally.
Admin Note: For those of you who like to browse or participate in the TSP Talk Forums, we were able to get the TapaTalk mobile version of the forum working with the new software. I know some of you had become accustomed to that. However, I think the new forum software actually looks great on mobile devises without a special app. That was part of the appeal of the new software. Just go straight to https://forum.tsptalk.com/
The S&P 500 (C-fund) tested and held again at support in the 5850 area, and now it is looking straight up at the open gap created last Friday. The top of that gap must get taken out to decrease the chances of the open gap down near 5780 from being filled in the near-term. It may be Nvidia's earnings report that makes or makes or breaks that outcome.
The DWCPF (S-fund) led the TSP funds with a nearly 1% gain yesterday. The 10 year yield breaking its uptrend helped here, and the top of that large open gap (red), as well as the 20-day average, and the top of the blue trading channel, continued to hold as support.
On Monday the ETF ACWX ETF was up 0.75% and the I-fund was given a 0.75% gain. That's encouraging, as we try to figure out which index or fund to use to track the I-fund during the day. I doubt it will be that easy, but we'll see.
ACWX was down 0.04% yesterday, so let's see what return the TSP gives the I-fund. The chart is sitting at a key support level.
You can see the updated TSP prices and returns posted by about 8:15 PM ET daily here: https://www.tsptalk.com/tsp_share_prices.php
BND (bonds / F-fund) is making another attempt to breakout of the long descending trading channel, and with the 10-year Yield breaking down yesterday, the odds of that happening just increased.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
