It was a manic Monday with the indices all mixed, and a little bit of end the month finagling pushed stocks off their highs. The Dow lost 224-points while the Nasdaq, and particularly the Nasdaq 100, were up nicely. The S&P 500 was down modestly, breaking its 7 day winning streak, while the S-fund posted a small gain. Bonds rebounded after last week's sell off.
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With Apple and Tesla, two of the market's hottest stocks of late, both splitting yesterday, it led a major rally in large tech stocks, while the rest of the market was rather blah. The RSP Equal Weighted S&P 500 ETF was down sharply while the Nasdaq 100 underneath it, gained 1%. That has been the theme of the last few months, although stocks in general have done just fine.
The TSP stocks funds all had a solid month in August with the large caps of the S&P 500 (C-fund) leading the way. The I-fund lagged despite the dollar falling and giving it every opportunity to make a move back, and it is now the only TSP fund still in the red for the year.
Stocks have now been up for 5 straight months as we start the weakest month of the year historically, particularly during election years. We know 2020 is not a normal year, and we have a major battle going on in the political world so anything can happen. On the positive side, the week leading into Labor Day weekend tends to do better than the rest of the month.
The VIX did jump yesterday so investors are expecting a pick up in volatility for stocks in September and October.
I see the futures opened on the moderately negative side on Monday evening, but barring any big news, it should be a relatively quiet, light trading volume week, and if that's the case, I will likely keep these commentaries short until next week.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) made a new intraday high, but the end of the month trading pushed it off its highs at the close and it looks to be stalling. The loss ended the 7-day winning streak, but a new month means new money may be coming in. Can the index bounce right back from yesterday's loss despite being so extended? It's now more than 400-points above its 200-day EMA.
The DWCPF (S-fund) managed a modest gain yesterday despite the broader market struggling, but more impressively it was up while the Russell 2000 small caps Index was down 1% on the day.
The EFA (I-fund) was down sharply yesterday as it held within that old and new resistance lines.
The High Yield Corporate Bond Fund ETF was down again as it battles that double top, but it looks more like a bull flag right now, than a peak.
BND (F-fund) rallied back after last week's losses. It did bounce back above the 50-day EMA but this formation is certainly not a bullish one right now. If it can get back above that 20-day EMA and the original bear flag (dashed red), it may be a different story.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
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With Apple and Tesla, two of the market's hottest stocks of late, both splitting yesterday, it led a major rally in large tech stocks, while the rest of the market was rather blah. The RSP Equal Weighted S&P 500 ETF was down sharply while the Nasdaq 100 underneath it, gained 1%. That has been the theme of the last few months, although stocks in general have done just fine.
The TSP stocks funds all had a solid month in August with the large caps of the S&P 500 (C-fund) leading the way. The I-fund lagged despite the dollar falling and giving it every opportunity to make a move back, and it is now the only TSP fund still in the red for the year.
Stocks have now been up for 5 straight months as we start the weakest month of the year historically, particularly during election years. We know 2020 is not a normal year, and we have a major battle going on in the political world so anything can happen. On the positive side, the week leading into Labor Day weekend tends to do better than the rest of the month.
The VIX did jump yesterday so investors are expecting a pick up in volatility for stocks in September and October.
I see the futures opened on the moderately negative side on Monday evening, but barring any big news, it should be a relatively quiet, light trading volume week, and if that's the case, I will likely keep these commentaries short until next week.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) made a new intraday high, but the end of the month trading pushed it off its highs at the close and it looks to be stalling. The loss ended the 7-day winning streak, but a new month means new money may be coming in. Can the index bounce right back from yesterday's loss despite being so extended? It's now more than 400-points above its 200-day EMA.
The DWCPF (S-fund) managed a modest gain yesterday despite the broader market struggling, but more impressively it was up while the Russell 2000 small caps Index was down 1% on the day.
The EFA (I-fund) was down sharply yesterday as it held within that old and new resistance lines.
The High Yield Corporate Bond Fund ETF was down again as it battles that double top, but it looks more like a bull flag right now, than a peak.
BND (F-fund) rallied back after last week's losses. It did bounce back above the 50-day EMA but this formation is certainly not a bullish one right now. If it can get back above that 20-day EMA and the original bear flag (dashed red), it may be a different story.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
