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Transfer 7/26/ for 7/27/04
- Thread starter tsptalk
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I'd be interested to see how jumping in and out compares with a long term strategy. I went 70% S, 20%I, 10% C in January when I did my annual rebalancing. I think that was and is still a pretty good call - and I think that with the lag in the TSP buy process, that you might miss the few big bump ups that make the year if you are bouncing in and out. So I intend to hold my course, and if things go down I look at them as buying opportunities for the dollar-cost averaging approach.
Thanks for the board - I try to read it frequently.
DrD
I'd be interested to see how jumping in and out compares with a long term strategy. I went 70% S, 20%I, 10% C in January when I did my annual rebalancing. I think that was and is still a pretty good call - and I think that with the lag in the TSP buy process, that you might miss the few big bump ups that make the year if you are bouncing in and out. So I intend to hold my course, and if things go down I look at them as buying opportunities for the dollar-cost averaging approach.
Thanks for the board - I try to read it frequently.
DrD
G
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imported post
DrD wrote:
"http://www.tsptalk.com/utilities/mlk_mans_data.xls
Good luck!
DrD wrote:
Hello DrD, welcome. As you can see with this chart, my system is beating the snot out of buy-and-hold strategies. This is all with only a few moves in and out.
"http://www.tsptalk.com/utilities/mlk_mans_data.xls
Good luck!
- Reaction score
- 1,975
imported post
Hi DrD -
Welcome. It seems to be a different strokes for different folks thing. I've had good years and less than good years trying to time the market but in the 4 1/2 years I have kept close track of my trades, I have beaten the market averages.
In there we had a bad bear market and a strong 2003. During the bear market I did have losing years but I did manage to do better than the market indices over that period. The key is to have a conservative bias during those bear markets and get very aggressive during the bull markets. Sure things always don't work out but I think if you play the risk / reward based on certain market indicators, it can pay off.
http://www.tsptalk.com/returns/returns2.html
Thanks for joining us,
Tom
Hi DrD -
Welcome. It seems to be a different strokes for different folks thing. I've had good years and less than good years trying to time the market but in the 4 1/2 years I have kept close track of my trades, I have beaten the market averages.
In there we had a bad bear market and a strong 2003. During the bear market I did have losing years but I did manage to do better than the market indices over that period. The key is to have a conservative bias during those bear markets and get very aggressive during the bull markets. Sure things always don't work out but I think if you play the risk / reward based on certain market indicators, it can pay off.
http://www.tsptalk.com/returns/returns2.html
Thanks for joining us,
Tom
imported post
GTO1970 wrote:
Yeah, when I first saw my gains 20 minutes after the open, I thought, "Oh, this isn't going to last at all."
It's a good thing Scottrade doesn't have a "Sell all holdings" button; I probably would have used it during that speed bump.
GTO1970 wrote:
baha!
Yeah, when I first saw my gains 20 minutes after the open, I thought, "Oh, this isn't going to last at all."
It's a good thing Scottrade doesn't have a "Sell all holdings" button; I probably would have used it during that speed bump.
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- 1,975
imported post
tsptalk wrote:
I told you I'd be a good contrarian indicator. I capitulated at the height of fear and we rebounded. Not too surprising. Frustrating as hell, but not surprising. We may reverse back down tomorrow, we may not. But the long awaited bottom is close at hand.
tsptalk wrote:
I described my recent move as "hiding during the Democratic Convention." Now I'd like to hide under a rock. Stocks up, bond down.
I told you I'd be a good contrarian indicator. I capitulated at the height of fear and we rebounded. Not too surprising. Frustrating as hell, but not surprising. We may reverse back down tomorrow, we may not. But the long awaited bottom is close at hand.
imported post
GTO1970 wrote:
I firmly do not believe in borrowing your own money.
tsptalk wrote:
Bahaha! Poor guy. Perhaps the "I'm going against my plan" isn't a good idea?
tsptalk wrote:
It is our money and we are responsible for it. Period.
(I loathe that brokers were sued purely on the premise that a person lost money,especially whenthat a person takes a big risk out of greed, then sues the broker because they did not hit the "jackpot".)
Besides...I would be more concerned that I were making Az's case for him.
GTO1970 wrote:
Check out their site and read about trading stocks; they have a "Scottrade U." Morningstar also has good primers. There are bajiddles of sites that teach the basics.
I firmly do not believe in borrowing your own money.
tsptalk wrote:
Bahaha! Poor guy. Perhaps the "I'm going against my plan" isn't a good idea?
tsptalk wrote:
It is our money and we are responsible for it. Period.
(I loathe that brokers were sued purely on the premise that a person lost money,especially whenthat a person takes a big risk out of greed, then sues the broker because they did not hit the "jackpot".)
Besides...I would be more concerned that I were making Az's case for him.
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I think today was more of an oversold bounce than a new leg up. Volume was light. The internals have been horrible lately (up vs down volume, new highs vs new lows) etc... I think this will be a good shortable bounce (I'm already short the market :x)
We'll see if we any follow thru during the rest of the week :%
I think today was more of an oversold bounce than a new leg up. Volume was light. The internals have been horrible lately (up vs down volume, new highs vs new lows) etc... I think this will be a good shortable bounce (I'm already short the market :x)
We'll see if we any follow thru during the rest of the week :%
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