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Transfer 7/26/ for 7/27/04
- Thread starter tsptalk
- Start date
imported post
Hi DrD -
Welcome. It seems to be a different strokes for different folks thing. I've had good years and less than good years trying to time the market but in the 4 1/2 years I have kept close track of my trades, I have beaten the market averages.
In there we had a bad bear market and a strong 2003. During the bear market I did have losing years but I did manage to do better than the market indices over that period. The key is to have a conservative bias during those bear markets and get very aggressive during the bull markets. Sure things always don't work out but I think if you play the risk / reward based on certain market indicators, it can pay off.
http://www.tsptalk.com/returns/returns2.html
Thanks for joining us,
Tom
Hi DrD -
Welcome. It seems to be a different strokes for different folks thing. I've had good years and less than good years trying to time the market but in the 4 1/2 years I have kept close track of my trades, I have beaten the market averages.
In there we had a bad bear market and a strong 2003. During the bear market I did have losing years but I did manage to do better than the market indices over that period. The key is to have a conservative bias during those bear markets and get very aggressive during the bull markets. Sure things always don't work out but I think if you play the risk / reward based on certain market indicators, it can pay off.
http://www.tsptalk.com/returns/returns2.html
Thanks for joining us,
Tom
G
Guest
Guest
imported post
DrD wrote:
"http://www.tsptalk.com/utilities/mlk_mans_data.xls
Good luck!
DrD wrote:
Hello DrD, welcome. As you can see with this chart, my system is beating the snot out of buy-and-hold strategies. This is all with only a few moves in and out.
"http://www.tsptalk.com/utilities/mlk_mans_data.xls
Good luck!
imported post
I'd be interested to see how jumping in and out compares with a long term strategy. I went 70% S, 20%I, 10% C in January when I did my annual rebalancing. I think that was and is still a pretty good call - and I think that with the lag in the TSP buy process, that you might miss the few big bump ups that make the year if you are bouncing in and out. So I intend to hold my course, and if things go down I look at them as buying opportunities for the dollar-cost averaging approach.
Thanks for the board - I try to read it frequently.
DrD
I'd be interested to see how jumping in and out compares with a long term strategy. I went 70% S, 20%I, 10% C in January when I did my annual rebalancing. I think that was and is still a pretty good call - and I think that with the lag in the TSP buy process, that you might miss the few big bump ups that make the year if you are bouncing in and out. So I intend to hold my course, and if things go down I look at them as buying opportunities for the dollar-cost averaging approach.
Thanks for the board - I try to read it frequently.
DrD
