Transfer 11/18 for 11/19/04

[tsptalk]

imported post

Well I thought the market would be pulling back prior to Thanksgiving week. So many people, including myself, have been expecting a pullback and you know what that means... We are usually wrong.

It is a tough decision but the seasonality data for Thanksgiving week is just too strong to ignore.

I'm taking a chance and making an interfund transfer to 25% C, 50% S, 25% I this morning, effective 11/19.

 

[smedlap]

imported post

Tom, I madeyour call also but I'mall I Fund as you know how I play. I do have a Q, of you. I play sentiment drift and fundamental data. Market trend is up due to best 3 months, money on the side trying to get in, a declining $ with not much more downside which gives I funda slight edge, and a US market that can go 4 to 8% higher by Xmas. I think more the 4%. Oil drives the direction. My q. is do you see the market the way I do: 2 speed bump opportunities. One of course is the Dec FMOC meeting with a guarenteed rate hike. I will play that out to C morning of the announcement thinking the market will go down and back in next morning to S or I with a market return to highs. I realize it is a raw play and I did not get much milage out of my last months efforts. The other is Thanksgiving wih money leaving the tableat Tuesday's close and returning aggressively following Monday. I'm trying to play the market sways since this is a gradual progressive climb. Your expert thoughts as I've seen the very opposite happen due to lack of trading!

 

[Spaf]

imported post

smed / tom
You are kind of losing me on the sways and pullbacks? Depending on a persons risk allocation tolerance, would't you want to stay invested during this periods. Yea one could temporarly lose some $, but it will come back on the upswing. Converserly, you risk possible gains. Bird in hand, two in bush.....? Or, am I not seeing this right?

 

[smedlap]

imported post

No, you probably are taking the exact right course and that is a steady held hand following a generally upward trend market thru mid January. I'm just trying to make a little more - 1/2% here and 1/2% there. Tom probably thinksmy process iscrazy because it is a very aggressive. I discern he is far more conservative then me from his postings and a far better hand tofollow then mine. But I argue that the Bulls and the Bears are constantly churning the market to their advantage andaroundcertaintimes,they workin synergy to drive up or down the marketto make money. I have done well and have enough in my sock to do stupid things like this. I am also not playing with money that I will need and as long as my potential loss is a percentage or two -I'm fine. Hope this explains my "not to follow" process asit is dicy but when played right - very profitable.

 

[Timer]

imported post

smedlap wrote:

The other is Thanksgiving wih money leaving the tableat Tuesday's close and returning aggressively following Monday.

Hi smedlap, for my own education, why would you expect money to go out and come back in like this? Is it because of the holiday, people get occupied with other things, don't play the market then come back to it after?

 

[tsptalk]

imported post

smedlap wrote:

Tom probably thinksmy process iscrazy because it is a very aggressive.

Not at all. Especially since I am so bullish. I have been 100% S through most of this rally. Pretty aggressive myself, don't you think?

The other is Thanksgiving wih money leaving the table at Tuesday's close and returning aggressively following Monday.

I have the same question as Timer here. Historically the entire week of Thanksgiving is strong with the weakness not coming in the final two trading days of the month, which would be Monday and Tuesday after Thanksgiving this year.

 

[tsptalk]

imported post

Spaf wrote:

smed / tom
You are kind of losing me on the sways and pullbacks? Depending on a persons risk allocation tolerance, would't you want to stay invested during this periods. Yea one could temporarly lose some $, but it will come back on the upswing. Converserly, you risk possible gains. Bird in hand, two in bush.....? Or, am I not seeing this right?

Again the only way to beat the market is to be out when you think it is going to go down. If you are not trying to beat the stock indices and are only trying to match the market's return, you should just stay fully invested at all times. You have to decide if you are a short term, or longer term trader / investor. It sounds like you are playing the longer term trends. There's nothing wrong with that. Probably a wise move for most people.

 

[Mike]

imported post

I'm really tempted to get in... blech.

Correction: I did go in. More emphasis on the I-fund than Tom, though.

The rationalization of "I'm young, I can take the risk" hit me, so there's the reasoning. I really wish this reasoning had hit me on November 3rd, though.

 

[tsptalk]

imported post

Mike wrote:

I'm really tempted to get in... blech.

Correction: I did go in. More emphasis on the I-fund than Tom, though.

Uh oh Mike. Remember I said the pullback will start as soon as we say it looks like we won't get one? Well, we both said it :shock:. I hope my psychoanalysis is wrong. :?

 

[tsptalk]

imported post

Well crap! Today the market is down and, unless wereverse up by the end of the day, it looks very much likea start of a pullback.

As I mentioned in the prior post and in my comments today, it's an amazing thing; As soon you as you think we won't get the pullback, it comes. And that is not because of bad luck or bad analysis, it's because of psychology.

If everyone (or the large majority) has this same thought (that the market won't pullback)then they are back in the market already,like I am am, then what is left to propel the market up? Nothing because we are all in already.

I may have to risk a whipsaw (jumping in and out at the wrong time) and move out again.:shock: Let me think about it. That dang Thanksgiving thing will probablykeep me from pulling the trigger.

 

[Guest]

imported post

tsptalk wrote:

Well crap! Today the market is down and, unless wereverse up by the end of the day, it looks very much likea start of a pullback.

As I mentioned in the prior post and in my comments today, it's an amazing thing; As soon you as you think we won't get the pullback, it comes. And that is not because of bad luck or bad analysis, it's because of psychology.

If everyone (or the large majority) has this same thought (that the market won't pullback)then they are back in the market already,like I am am, then what is left to propel the market up? Nothing because we are all in already.

I may have to risk a whipsaw (jumping in and out at the wrong time) and move out again.:shock: Let me think about it. That dang Thanksgiving thing will probablykeep me from pulling the trigger.

There's a lot of "big money" coming into the market right now, should be able to sustain the rally. This pull back today is probably because of options expiration, I think we'll come back up later today...........:^

 

[Mike]

imported post

Tom, I knew you'd spot my comment and be scared.

Actually, I was hoping today would be down a bit - that'll give me a bit of a break on the share prices, and as long as the recent trend holds (down days followed by a renewed push upward), we should be fine.

We have a lot going for us right now - a strong economy, a bull market, and the strongest part of the year historically.

 

[coolhand]

imported post

Absolutely Mike. I got lucky and put my transfer in for today, but like you said this market is too strong not to bounce back.I suspect we'll see a mini rally next week as many of the hold-outs jump in to get the expected and much talked about 5-10% upward gains that this market supposedly has left to give. The market may even pare its losses this afternoon.

Oil is up so far today, giving more emphasis to the pull-back,the dollar is continuing its downward spiral andgold is upover $4. In spite of all this, anything can happen. Keep an eye on the G20 for any surprises. None are expected, but you know how that can go.

Caveat: I enjoy discussing the market with everyone, but I personally tend to follow Tom and Spaf's leads to a large extent as I am still weak in chart reading, historical perspectiveand market psychology. I continue to learn quitea bit from them and others on this board and for that I thank you all.

 

[tsptalk]

imported post

Mike wrote:

Tom, I knew you'd spot my comment and be scared.

LOL. And I was was bitten also. Ah, the market is such a tease.

 

[Mike]

imported post

tsptalk wrote:

Mike wrote:

Tom, I knew you'd spot my comment and be scared.

LOL. And I was was bitten also. Ah, the market is such a tease.

I know a girl like that... maybe I should talk to her more often to get a guage on "sentiment".

 

[Rolo]

imported post

Mike wrote:

tsptalk wrote:

LOL. And I was was bitten also. Ah, the market is such a tease.

I know a girl like that... maybe I should talk to her more often to get a guage on "sentiment".

ROFL!

Would we all agree that a 5-10% correction after a quick run-up that we've had be a normal digesting of gains? That is my thought and I won't try to time it..screwed that up way too many times, heh. I'm standing pat.

 

[Chips]

imported post

Well Guys and Gal, I am going full boar and throwing it all in for Monday. I think we shall see some nice gains next week. will keep my fingers crossed:!

Have a Great Week-end!

Athan