TRAFFIC_DOG's account talk

[Bullitt]

Traffic Dog, you've been away for so long and suddenly appeared with a charge lit!

Just be careful out there. Don't fall for the other Wall Street trap of 'outperformance'. 4 years is still a relatively short period in the long run, especially given the fact that the past 4 years was a raging over leveraged bull market. Everyone gets humbled in the end. Look at Bill Miller who is one of the most respected fund managers out there. 14 years of outperformance and boy does he have egg on his face this year with CFC, BSC and YHOO.

Depends on the interpretation of buy and hold. Buying an Index Fund and adding to it periodically or reinvesting the dividends over time will most certainly put more than a few market timers to shame.

Great job on your outperformance. Good luck keeping the streak alive and watch out for sharks in the water!

 

[TRAFFIC_DOG]

The weekly charts of S&P 500 and EFA (or BTAEX) have rolled over from overbought but the weekly DWCPF is still holding in overbought and showing increasing strength.

There's still plenty of room for more up side to this rally... the weekly charts aren't due to bottom out to oversold until July... IMO

 

[TRAFFIC_DOG]

Just be careful out there.

No worries.

My capital management strategy has been a long time in the making.
I'm 49..... and have learned from the many mistakes. I have a large balance to protect for my family as the first priority........

That's why I don't go for homeruns, but instead "go with the pitch".

It works in both up and down trending markets.

I'm currently 70% equities..... and feel comfortable I'll be able to exit higher and enter lower.

 

[TRAFFIC_DOG]

... especially given the fact that the past 4 years was a raging over leveraged bull market.

mmmmmm......

Last year the C fund was 5% while I was 14.9%.

YTD the C fund is minus 8% (not a lot of raging bull there) ...while I am plus 7%.

Again the point is not my greatness..... but to keep plugging and do not give in to the "weak stick" buy and hold/diversify and forget mentality.

We are all going to live a long time in retirement......
It is sobering to look at retirement account draw downs based on the status of the market in the first couple of years of one's retirement. Market squatters are slaves to market conditions for which they have no expertise to deal with.

The Game can, and needs to be beaten.

The volume of people who pay homage to a C fund squatter tells me there is too much mental weakness out in TSP Talk land.

Maybe I can help change that someday....... with a longer record of performance......................

'Til then...........

 

[Birchtree]

Now is when I need one good dog that can sniff out the hidden bull manure piles. It's time for a drive by and a few succinct thoughts.

 

[Birchtree]

Where are the good sniffers when you need one?