TRAFFIC_DOG
Member
Things are shaping up just like my most likely scenario hunch.
The summers sub-prime mess and the housing slump introduced big doubts into a bull market. This introduces the oportunity to reap big profits as bad news gets the focus at short term overbought set-ups. The market gets pushed down quickly and since the over all economy is still strong, the bulls pounce on it as a chance to get cheap shares. This dip buying can be milked, all the while with lower highs, and carefully keeping higher lows so the set up is not obvious.
I think we've priced in most all the bad news here, but the market will stay down and choppy a little while longer to see if a recession is immanent.
If that happens I think we'll go all the way down to the low 1300's in the SPX, which omminously is where the long term trend line from 1982 through the 2003 lows runs right over the weekly 200 sma. That would reset the support of a new long term bull run channel in a very healthy way.
My macro feel has been pretty good for 6 months or so (luck + hours of looking at charts), but short term is impossible. I would have made a lot more since summer were it not for my timid, partial IFT's. Maybe a 2/mo limit will help bottom line....... while hurting my hairline.....gulmp.
Going back in 46C 20S 34G... although I think we'll see a big intra-day push down low w/ partial recovery within next 2 weeks.
The summers sub-prime mess and the housing slump introduced big doubts into a bull market. This introduces the oportunity to reap big profits as bad news gets the focus at short term overbought set-ups. The market gets pushed down quickly and since the over all economy is still strong, the bulls pounce on it as a chance to get cheap shares. This dip buying can be milked, all the while with lower highs, and carefully keeping higher lows so the set up is not obvious.
I think we've priced in most all the bad news here, but the market will stay down and choppy a little while longer to see if a recession is immanent.
If that happens I think we'll go all the way down to the low 1300's in the SPX, which omminously is where the long term trend line from 1982 through the 2003 lows runs right over the weekly 200 sma. That would reset the support of a new long term bull run channel in a very healthy way.
My macro feel has been pretty good for 6 months or so (luck + hours of looking at charts), but short term is impossible. I would have made a lot more since summer were it not for my timid, partial IFT's. Maybe a 2/mo limit will help bottom line....... while hurting my hairline.....gulmp.
Going back in 46C 20S 34G... although I think we'll see a big intra-day push down low w/ partial recovery within next 2 weeks.