TRAFFIC_DOG's account talk

Things are shaping up just like my most likely scenario hunch.

The summers sub-prime mess and the housing slump introduced big doubts into a bull market. This introduces the oportunity to reap big profits as bad news gets the focus at short term overbought set-ups. The market gets pushed down quickly and since the over all economy is still strong, the bulls pounce on it as a chance to get cheap shares. This dip buying can be milked, all the while with lower highs, and carefully keeping higher lows so the set up is not obvious.

I think we've priced in most all the bad news here, but the market will stay down and choppy a little while longer to see if a recession is immanent.
If that happens I think we'll go all the way down to the low 1300's in the SPX, which omminously is where the long term trend line from 1982 through the 2003 lows runs right over the weekly 200 sma. That would reset the support of a new long term bull run channel in a very healthy way.

My macro feel has been pretty good for 6 months or so (luck + hours of looking at charts), but short term is impossible. I would have made a lot more since summer were it not for my timid, partial IFT's. Maybe a 2/mo limit will help bottom line....... while hurting my hairline.....gulmp.

Going back in 46C 20S 34G... although I think we'll see a big intra-day push down low w/ partial recovery within next 2 weeks.
 
If....and it's a big if now, we get a rally from here I see most likely a bounce hard back down from the 1440-1447 range. If we get up there in the near term, it will be well below the 50 ma which will fool many into holding out too long.
 
Well, we're not in a happy place here. Today's action doesn't look promising for the over sold bounce I was hoping for...... but between 11:00 deadline and the close Friday that plan was about DOA.

It looks like we're on our way to forming a dead man's ledge today to catch our breath before slipping off tommorrow to continue the fall.

Times like these 11:00 (cst) make it especially trying.

Going to tweek a bit for some CP w/out too much exposure to the blindfolded IFT deadline pinata spin.

51G 36C 13S
 
Well.... I'm prepared to lay out my best guess scenario.
It is not good.
I'm seeing a positively scary similarity in the SPX chart coming out of the last week of Sept '01 lows to the last week of Jun of '02 ....and todays' from the march lows to todays' close.
The only real difference is in the magnitude of the moves in the respective time periods.
In '02 the spx dropped another 10% +.
Yes, that was a completely different time and situation.....just telling what I'm seeing.......and feeling.
I'm feeling like the Fed cannot rescue this market even with a surprise pre FOMC meeting cut. I'm feeling like that would spark a big intra day move which would be mostly, if not comepletely sold off.

70% chance of a 2 week 100 point SPX sell off begining as early as this week.

Just wanted to throw that out there...... DON'T make any IFT's based on MY feelings........I'm looking to get out.

PS- 70% chace that I'm completely wrong.
 
Well.... I'm prepared to lay out my best guess scenario. It is not good. I'm seeing a positively scary similarity in the SPX chart coming out of the last week of Sept '01 lows to the last week of Jun of '02 ....and todays' from the march lows to todays' close.
The only real difference is in the magnitude of the moves in the respective time periods. In '02 the spx dropped another 10% +. Yes, that was a completely different time and situation.....just telling what I'm seeing.......and feeling. I'm feeling like the Fed cannot rescue this market even with a surprise pre FOMC meeting cut. I'm feeling like that would spark a big intra day move which would be mostly, if not comepletely sold off. 70% chance of a 2 week 100 point SPX sell off begining as early as this week.

Traffic_Dog, you had me at "dead mans ledge"

Thanks for your scenario. I am not quite as bearish as you, so maybe we can meet somewhere in the middle. I am encouraged by the very large rebound we had last August from 1370...thus I think if we do break below 1400, there will be a substantial snap back upward. I think that the bad news loses potency with time, and it takes new rounds of it to keep the market down. I don't think the knockout punch has occurred yet, but I think the FED meeting and the jobs report shortly thereafter has the potential to do it.
 
Move over! One more bear squeezing in the cave. Oops, hope that wasn't your foot I stepped on. lol
 
I've been pouring over my chart pattern recognition hand book and have found a perfect match......

We have a ACD. That's an Acapolco Cliff Diver.
If you look at yesterday's SPX 1 minute chart you can clearly see the profile of Estaban, standing straight and tall, clawing with his toes for a good grip.

Todays open is clearly Estaban flinging himself ....with a majestic thrust upward.

Sufficient distance away from the cliff is achieved, the apex arrives with a arms gracefully extended .......(since it's a profile... we can't see the arms extending outward in the classic swan configuration)....

Now the plunge into the surf.
 
I'll send Ferdinand over to roll the stone and you won't be allowed out until April.

Oh.... but I went in with 75K in fat cut from the '07 hog.

I can easily bribe Ferdinand to let me out ..... and still have enough left to pick up 37,500 C fund shares on the cheap.
And still buy the drinks..... cheers
 
Well... the 2 day 1 minute SPX chart has us completing an apex pattern.

Which way the breakout? .....the faint sound of a pebble hitting the water at the bottom of a well can be heard.
 
Wow, what can you say?

Some of you might be wondering, based on my forcast of this very thing.... what I'm doing in the market at all?

It's adhering to a system.

That's THE most important element to sucess.

I made 15% in '07 by not being over confident. I was out until last Friday, when I went in 66%. Many indicators were oversold, so there was always the likelyhood of a nice bounce to mid 1400's.

Plus the IFT deadline is nuts. I've talked about the comfort zone I've found by making a series of smaller moves......this time it worked against me....as I have been working my way out.
That's OK though, 'cause the system has proven itself to work and be good for my blood pressure.
 
Moved from C Fund thread.....

A $130K gain is marvelous - you should join the automated tracker so the rest of us can see how it's done.

As you well know, it's done by getting out of equities when they are relatively overbought ..... and more importantly avoiding declining markets. And...... not being too greedy. Cutting the easy fat off the hog.

This means ...... (holding hands to cheeks in astonishment)..... going into the G Fund.

This takes GUTS, because as you also well know by your above silly calculation, there's little money to be made there. This means every time you are out of the market, you are risking unrealized gains. This can be just as painfull as the losses.

You are well liked here and seem like a good fellow, but ridiculing those working hard to beat the game..... while claiming as a virtue suffering huge losses is just nuts.

Tom's must read daily commentary, combined with others on the MB give the folks all the tools to out perform the markets. I have developed a very disciplined money management approach. This money management is UNTEACHABLE in my opinion..... it must be learned viscerally.

Thank you Tom for what must be tons of thankless work to provide this forum which helps so many.

1,600 posts (since last June) telling everyone to disregard all the great information provided here and learn to enjoy watching one's retirement assets dwindle is nothing more than jamming the airwaves with static while others are trying to watch the programming.

Recap.... Tom has helped me realize my #1 objective.

Never ever endure another 2000-2002 bear market. Mission accomplished.... so far.

Never sell strategies are for those without either the knowlege or the stomach to get in the arena.
 
Let me just say, I have a real bur under my saddle for the institutional buy and hold propaganda.

It don't cut it!

I'm no financial genius, but I am driven to find a fairly risk averse method of out performing the S&P 500.

I don't post much in the way of philosophy or specific predictions because, quite frankly, by the time I finish doing my homework, I'm too tired of thinking about it to write a post. Plus, I'm no guru. Maybe I'll throw more out some time, but I'll say as encouragement to others......

Since 01/01/04 the C fund has averaged 6.8% per year.

I have averaged over 14% per year (of course not including contributions)

That is double the market's rate of return for 4 and one half years.

My point being simply that..............

IT CAN BE DONE, AND DONE CONSISTENTLY.... YEAR OVER YEAR.

So hang in there.

I will talk later about why it is so important to stay in the game, take your knocks and learn.
 
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