Trader System

[sugarandspice]

I'm down with Fred. At this point he would definitely be worth the money. Plus I got to see more lines today.

 

[tsptalk]

I'm down with Fred. At this point he would definitely be worth the money. Plus I got to see more lines today.

Of course the lines would be extra. Especially the squiggly ones

 

[wht00ss]

Tom,

I agree to some degree with the above comments regarding Trader Fred. Have you come to some decision regarding the testing of the system and to when and whether an actual official implementation will take place and any details regarding participation?

thanks

white

 

[tsptalk]

white -
Fred wanted to do a 6 to 9 month test minimum so we have some time. I have not began doing any programming to make it a part of the premium services, and Fred has not indicated yet what type of compensation he'll want once it does go to "production". Sounds like a good summer project and I'll keep you informed as we move forward. Your input is always welcomed.

Thanks

 

[qibovin]

I've been reading the stuff about what to do if you miss a buy signal, but what do you do, when the time comes, if you miss the sell signal? All the submodels will be out at that point, so there's nothing for which to wait. Do you just sell as soon as you find out about your screw up and swallow (presumably) your losses?

Or, what if you missed a buy but caught the next one, but you missed the sell on that one but there's still another submodel in; do you wait for the sell on that one then?

...Or what if Godzilla eats your computer in the middle of an IFT...but it's in the middle of a solar flare with an ecclipse of the full moon expected that night and the markets in China are closed and Bernacke is speaking from Area 51 where a three dollar bill dated 2010 was just recovered from the money clip of an alien?:cheesy:

No, seriously, the first two questions are legit--really.

 

[tsptalk]

I've been reading the stuff about what to do if you miss a buy signal, but what do you do, when the time comes, if you miss the sell signal? All the submodels will be out at that point, so there's nothing for which to wait. Do you just sell as soon as you find out about your screw up and swallow (presumably) your losses?

Yes, you'd just sell

Or, what if you missed a buy but caught the next one, but you missed the sell on that one but there's still another submodel in; do you wait for the sell on that one then?

My suggestion is to get out if the submodel you bought in on (assuming it's the only one) moves to a sell - even if you are late. The prior submodel could have a big stop loss in place that may not be right for your trade.

I will get more into this because this is a sensative issue with Fred and we have been talking about it. It's not the way the system was designed but we realize that something has to be done for missed signals.

 

[FundSurfer]

Today's action will most likely trigger a Trader Fred sell signal. This means that tonight Trader System will signal a sell for tommorrow when you would move to G-fund. Just my guess based on what he said his trigger is.

 

[qibovin]

...something has to be done for missed signals.

That's what my wife keeps telling me.:laugh: Am I missing something?

 

[qibovin]

I was wondering the exact same thing yesterday.....which was also the same day that our IFTs matched perfectly down to the hundredth of a percent. You must be my missing twin, separated at birth!

Yeah, I was going to do 40/50/10, but I saw how nice your numbers looked and thought--why not get a little bit more of that S? Thanks a lot
You cost me 10% of 0.31% so far
But who's counting?

(Just kidding, I appreciate your comments throughout the board)

 

[tsptalk]

Today's action will most likely trigger a Trader Fred sell signal. This means that tonight Trader System will signal a sell for tommorrow when you would move to G-fund. Just my guess based on what he said his trigger is.

Very possibly. I know the stop was 16.69 on the C fund for a couple of the submodels and that may be hit today.

 

[qibovin]

Very possibly. I know the stop was 16.69 on the C fund for a couple of the submodels and that may be hit today.

At -1.76% that's 16.62--I think so.

 

[sugarandspice]

I am wondering if Fred's system has ever gotten a sell signal from a stop before. Did he run backtesting with stops in place? And if so, what where the results regarding transfers from hitting those stops.

Could you ask for me Tom?

 

[tsptalk]

I will.

 

[tsptalk]

I am wondering if Fred's system has ever gotten a sell signal from a stop before. Did he run backtesting with stops in place? And if so, what where the results regarding transfers from hitting those stops.

Could you ask for me Tom?

From Fred:
... on the good question about back testing with stops. I
will send you two sets of submodel profiles, with and
without stops. In general, using the stops improves
the return of the submodels. I am not sure how you
would want to add them to the web site, so I will just
send both sets by 12pm Sunday.

So, more info to come.

 

[tsptalk]

Trader Fred's reply can be found here

He also sent along a document for each submodel, one with stops, and one without. (38 total documents). The guy is a hard worker.

I'll post links to them on the system page when I get time.

 

[tsptalk]

Fred's system is based on pattern recognition. I don't think he will attempt to figure out why. It's like trying to tell a technical analysis that a company has reduced debt and expenses and should start making more money. They don't care. They just want to see positive action on the chart.