I'm a bit confused. The end of last week I read Trader Fred was moving back into stocks. Now, 2-26, he says it's back to the G fund. But nowhere did I see that he actually moved to stocks last week. What's up with that. Why did he say the crystal ball said to move into stocks and then not do it hinself?
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Trader System
- Thread starter walli1
- Start date
- Reaction score
- 3,411
I think you are confusing systems. For one thing, Trader Fred doesn't use a crystal ball. 
You may be thinking of the infamous Carnac. Trader Fred's allocations are always posted here ... www.tsptalk.com/system.html.
Fred did move to stocks on the 9th but that only lasted a day or two.
You may be thinking of the infamous Carnac. Trader Fred's allocations are always posted here ... www.tsptalk.com/system.html.Fred did move to stocks on the 9th but that only lasted a day or two.
i could very well have been confused but i'd sure like to see what was there prior to what was written today. i read it every day including the weekend days to see if anything has changed and i'd swear that thurs. or fri morning he said he was moving to stocks. whatever i didn't follow it anyway.
- Reaction score
- 3,411
Oh, now I understand. My mistake. Yes, he had that new short-term trading system he was playing with that gave a buy signal last week. You are right. I have not heard anything else so I assume that is still in the stock funds.
I had mentioned that it was an unofficial signal since it was not part of the current TSP Trader System so I wouldn't be tracking it (returns-wise). But we will give the signals when they come in.
Sorry for the confusion. :embarrest:
Tom
- Reaction score
- 3,411
And here is the email alert that was sent Friday (It's all coming back to me now)
"This email alert is more of an FYI at this point. One of Trader Fred's new short-term trading sub-models, "W3", has given a short-term buy signal. I will not put the system into a buy allocation since this is not part of the original 12 submodel system. The system remains 100% in the G fund but I wanted to let you know of this signal in case you wished to act on it yourself."
"This email alert is more of an FYI at this point. One of Trader Fred's new short-term trading sub-models, "W3", has given a short-term buy signal. I will not put the system into a buy allocation since this is not part of the original 12 submodel system. The system remains 100% in the G fund but I wanted to let you know of this signal in case you wished to act on it yourself."
FundSurfer
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 39
Wow. Anybody catch Trader Fred's comments today. Anybody want to translate? :nuts: ... All I got was... Market go boom...
I tried, I really did.
I keep reading his comments hoping that some of it will rub off on me.
I think I did catch something about hesitation and release. I think that translates to getting to the top or bottom of a cycle and being able to note that. Anyway, interesting stuff...
Tom's Sentiment Survey is much easier to understand.
I tried, I really did.I keep reading his comments hoping that some of it will rub off on me.
I think I did catch something about hesitation and release. I think that translates to getting to the top or bottom of a cycle and being able to note that. Anyway, interesting stuff...
Tom's Sentiment Survey is much easier to understand.
- Reaction score
- 3,411
I know what you mean. I just pass his info along but this is one reason he wanted to use this site because he knew he couldn't write in a way that others could clearly understand. We may have to do something differently at some point.
He mentioned late last week that he expected a big move down between Monday and Thursday of this week, but he asked me not to mention it because he was just testing another theory and thought it was premature to make any "guesses". Ironically he also said the system came very, very close to a buy signal Monday COB, but fell just short.
He mentioned late last week that he expected a big move down between Monday and Thursday of this week, but he asked me not to mention it because he was just testing another theory and thought it was premature to make any "guesses". Ironically he also said the system came very, very close to a buy signal Monday COB, but fell just short.
FundSurfer
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 39
Uh-Roh... I think I understood Fred's comments today. Maybe not completely but I got a little better understanding of what he looks for in one of his graphs.
sugarandspice
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 31
I think I am starting to see the ideas behind the Trader Fred. But sometimes the comments are a bit .....uh well.....well see for yourself......."That is exactly where we are today with a four day pileup and again directly in front of the loss-gain boundary. Therefore, the market either is gathering enough strength to release into the gain region, or has failed to acquire that strength. If the latter, the market release will be to the left, further back into the loss region."
For it to be a "system" shouldn't it give you a direction to go in instead of both sides of the fence conclusions?
For it to be a "system" shouldn't it give you a direction to go in instead of both sides of the fence conclusions?
VirginiaBob
TSP Strategist
- Reaction score
- 7
I was thinking the same thing. Sounds sort of wishy-washy. And also, I'd think that his system would err on the side of being in the market, given those choices that he states, since in the long run, it is better to be in than out. I think that is what is hurting his returns. His system seems tailored to those that are 5 years from retirement rather than the long term investor. What I mean is that it seems that his goal is to outperform the G fund, not the stock indices.
sugarandspice
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 31
Does Trader Fred have a goal in mind for this system? Like a benchmark or % to achieve? Is it stated anywhere? Or simply just T&E mode for now? FYI, I am a loyal reader of it everyday.
- Reaction score
- 3,411
The system gives signals. Trying to interpret them in between is just filling space. 100% G fund allocation means ALL sub-models are in sell mode. That means there are no prior market patterns that the system can find, that give a high probability to a positive intermediate term rally at this time. You don't need the words to know that.
Fred is just filling the space. It's one reason he sought me to present the information. He is very technical and says he can't write in a way that people would want to read. He started writing this commentary for me to interpret and create commentary based on the current situation of the system. I decided to just pass it along as is for now while we are in the trial period. For one reason, I don't usually get it either, but I know what a sell signal means.
- Reaction score
- 3,411
I think past performance has shown the system out of the market 30% of the time (or was it in the market 30% of the time? I'll have to look that up). Regardless, the system beat the market going back many years.
But it could be wishy washy because it is between signals. If, for instance, one of the sub-models (and I'm making this up) gives a sell signal if an index is below the 50-day moving average for more than two days, and a buy signals if above more than 3, and the index is now on the 50-day moving average, you can see that the signal would depend on the next action in the market and could go either way. No interpretation my the creator of the system which leaves emotion and guessing out of it.
But it could be wishy washy because it is between signals. If, for instance, one of the sub-models (and I'm making this up) gives a sell signal if an index is below the 50-day moving average for more than two days, and a buy signals if above more than 3, and the index is now on the 50-day moving average, you can see that the signal would depend on the next action in the market and could go either way. No interpretation my the creator of the system which leaves emotion and guessing out of it.
- Reaction score
- 3,411
He wanted to evaluate it for at least 6 to 9 months since all of the hypothetical results, which did beat the S&P, were from back tested data. The system he had working in the 90's used Rydex funds (you could go long and short) so it was quite different but very successful.
- Reaction score
- 3,411
By the way, Fred has worked on new sub-models, some which are based on short-term time frames. He has not implemented them yet and I was worried about having too many. It seems like if you have 2 dozen sub signals and the entire system is goes to a buy if any one sub-signal is in a buy, then you would probably always be in the market. I guess this last month or two has proven otherwise, but I know he has gotten a signal or two from some of the new short-term submodels that we are not using yet.
By the time the trial is over he'll have a better feel for which ones will work best. Like my active and inactive account, the system may go to two accounts as well for those who want to take more risk and use the more sensiive submodels.
By the time the trial is over he'll have a better feel for which ones will work best. Like my active and inactive account, the system may go to two accounts as well for those who want to take more risk and use the more sensiive submodels.
sugarandspice
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 31
Thanks for the answers and your time Tom. I am in no way badmouthing his system. Just seeking knowledge of it. And I appreciate his efforts in doing it.
sugarandspice
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 31
Fred says if the pink line goes down or remains flat for an extended period then the black line will drop too. It looks as though pinky has been flat for about 2 weeks. Do you know what "extended period" equates to. Someone like me who likes to trade would think that 2 weeks is an extended period. But Birch might say 2 years. What would Fred say?
