Trader System

[tsptalk]

Fred says if the pink line goes down or remains flat for an extended period then the black line will drop too. It looks as though pinky has been flat for about 2 weeks. Do you know what "extended period" equates to. Someone like me who likes to trade would think that 2 weeks is an extended period. But Birch might say 2 years. What would Fred say?

Trader Fred's response:

Good question. An extended period in stock modeling can mean, as you say, two weeks or two years. I use extended period to mean--since the last major fluctuation on that graph. In my version of wave theory, minor fluctuations are like ripples. Or put another way, an extended period is since the last major wave happened on that graph. And depending on when the last major wave was seen on that graph, the "extended period" could be two weeks or two years in length.

A gain or loss of approximatedly one half of one percent in the C Fund equates to "flat". A gain or loss of approximatedly one percent in the C Fund equates to a "ripple". A gain or loss of more than one percent, but less than 7.5% in the C Fund generally equates to a "wave". Because a loss of -7.5% is the automatic stop during a trade for all my stock models, a loss of minus 7.5% or more in the C Fund is a tsunami. A gain of more than plus 7.5% in the C Fund during a single trade equates to the calm before a really big storm (i.e., a potential big down move in the price of the C Fund probably is going to happen sometime in the near future).

 

[FundSurfer]

Wow! I reached a new level of confusion with Trader Fred's comentary and graphs today. It looks and reads like he knows what he is doing, but I'm at a loss to be able to follow the whole thing. I'm glad he's posting his commentary cause I think a little has sunk in. I'll be glad when his system has a little more track record. What I got out of today's message: " In the market, stay on your toes, expect sell signal middle of next week pushed back from end of this week."

I'm on the sidelines cause I'm wary of political/overseas stuff happening over the weekend. I don't think his models predict that sort of stuff.

 

[tsptalk]

I know what you mean. He actually talks about each sub-model as if they were totally different monsters. He says he is speculating that submodel J, which is the only one in the market, may trigger a sell signal next week, but he could get a buy signal from another submodel at any time.

Basically each submodel is looking for a replication of past winning trade set ups. So one submodel might sell near a top after a big rally, but another one might read that as a breakout that has led to more advancement. The same thing for selling points - one may say it's time to sell because of a break down in a technical indicator, while another says, this type of dip has led to a bounce historically.

I think it's difficult for him to explain that.

 

[sugarandspice]

Fred's goal setting.

I noticied that Fred says "The goal is to exit the trade with a one percent gain in the C Fund." Currently he is more than double that which is exceeding his goal. With that in mind I am assuming that no matter what happens in the future that Fred will be making market moves based solely on the system and not to achieve goals. If they coincide with each other then that would be optimum. But the moves will be system based only?


P.S. On occasion Fred's comments coupled with his colorful pictures make me want to dissolve a substance enhanced sugar cube in my mouth. It might help me follow along better.

 

[tsptalk]

Yes, everything is driven by signals, no decision making. The goal is based on the average of prior backtesting results so he anticipates averaging 1% with each sub-model J buy signal, but it could be more or less on each individual trade.

I think it was the fact that Fred worked for Intel before they wore space suits. So, he may have been sniffing something, but it was on the job, not recreational.

 

[Birchtree]

Sugar was describing "Blue Cheer". I used to baby sit college kids back in 1970 at the UNH who took a ride on "Blue Cheer". What a way to get a religous experience - Timothy O.

 

[sugarandspice]

........What a way to get a religous experience -

.....or maybe some insight into Trader Fred's psychedelic spaghetti noodle charts.

 

[sugarandspice]

At this point I have to give KUDOS/PROPS/LUV to Trader Fred. Even though I dont fully comprehend him, he is doing well. I only wish I followed him instead of read him.

 

[tsptalk]

I hear you. I'm in the same boat. Everyday when I get his new COB comments, I'm hoping to see a sell signal so I can get onboard next time.

 

[KAPLOWD]

Not only impressive but it sure looks like a very good day to take profits and then sit back and wait for the next buying opportunity, as per Trader Fred.

Trader Fred's strength/price system seems to work well in a secular bull market, which we've been in since 1982 (refer to key concepts on www.hsdent.com), but how would this system work in a secular bear market (see also key concepts on www.hsdent.com under spending wave) ?

 

[kcjacket]

I have been monitoring Trader Fred, The Daily Market Commentary and the Sentiment Survey results in the short amount of time that I have been visiting this website and have been impressed with his results and enjoy trying to understand the method to his madness!!!

The last time he moved out the market, albeit a little early was definitely
the right thing to do.

Any thoughts on his last move out of the market???????

I'm inclined to follow at this point with his record.

 

[Show-me]

kcjacket,

Welcome to the MB! I am more inclined to follow him also, but I'd like to see that BIG DIP first. Come on market take a dive!

 

[kcjacket]

Thanks Show-Me glad to be here as well as in the Show-Me myself!

Think I'll follow along this time and see what happens!!!!!!!

 

[pogo]

it was 5-days after trader fred got out of stock that the market went south

 

[tsptalk]

Actually, and this is off the record, one of Trader Fred's new sub-models (he's been working on several new ones) went to a buy Wednesday after the close. The same day sub-model J exited the market. I talked about that as a possibilty in one of our daily commentaries a couple of weeks ago, as each sub-model looks for different scenarios.

But the official system is still based on the original 12 sub-models and all of them remain out of the market so the system is on a sell signal. He said he wants to monitor the new ones a little longer before adapting them to the official system.

 

[tsptalk]

Actually, and this is off the record, one of Trader Fred's new sub-models (he's been working on several new ones) went to a buy Wednesday after the close. The same day sub-model J exited the market. I talked about that as a possibilty in one of our daily commentaries a couple of weeks ago, as each sub-model looks for different scenarios.

But the official system is still based on the original 12 sub-models and all of them remain out of the market so the system is on a sell signal. He said he wants to monitor the new ones a little longer before adapting them to the official system.

I stand corrected. In today's message he tells me:

Everything I have here says the market is going to slowly be declining in the near future. I have gotten sell signals for 3 of the new models tonight, although all made a profit--couple of percent.

 

[SkiUtah]

I have noticed that there are a number of programs like trader freds that lock in their profits at a certain point. There are at times more upside, but more risk staying in....I'm in.

 

[tsptalk]

We've been discussing that a little. A lot of times the market pulls back before he gets a sell signal. We're trying to decide if we should take some profits on the way up.

 

[sugarandspice]

Perhaps we can rename Fred's comments to "Doing Lines with Trader Fred." It fits Sugar's past lifestyle better but Fred's version is less expensive and won't force her into immoral activity to support the habit. Fred has lots of lines.

 

[Birchtree]

It's a heck of a lot cheaper to just lick the frog - but it's not legal. You can kiss the frog but no licking.