Tracking TSP Returns

[Scout333]

I'm still a little confused about how regular payroll contributions affect things. I think one's yearly totals with contributions will be much greater than start of year amount, so not a true gain/loss type purely on trading/investments performance.

I think that is what's wrong with the PIP thing on the TSP.gov website, just doesn't make sense to me. I suppose one could subtract out DCA contributions for a better picture of actual gains, but that number will still be higher because some of the gains will be 'interest/dividends' on the additional contributions. How do other people handle that?

Maybe I'm just thinking too much (better than talking too much I guess) but I do that too.

What tracking sytems are other's using?

Any other's out there someone wants to share?

Burro, I just link my spreadsheet amounts to another worksheet to cut down on the input. i.e. dates, TSP totals, etc. and put in a simple formula to calculate return on my TSP account. Looks like (current account value-beginning account value) -total contributions year to date/ beginning account value. i.e. (10,000-5000)-3000= 2,000/5000 =40% return

One quirk, if you receive matching contributions you will have to decide whether that is part of your return or not. You can leave it in and your return% will be higher or take it out and your return will more closely represent what your actual earnings were. Enjoy!

 

[burrocrat]

I know I should be careful what I ask for, time is precious, and there's many times it would have been convenient to turn back the clock.

But I wish the new year would hurry up and get here so I can start using these cool spreadsheets.

Please, please, please let's see a big drop today, and keep it coming, so I can get back on the birchtrain at a discount after the first of the month.

 

[burrocrat]

Great feedback! Thanks. What did you decide on, as far as tracking and, if you don't mind sharing, have you decided on a system or strategy for your TSP for 2010?

Question 2 trading strategy: When i can identify a trading range/channel I think I'm going to continue with #3, the 'multifund swing trade' model, see:
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=76255&postcount=8, I call it the 'small baskets were on sale' strategy, see: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=7883 post #4.

I'm afraid, however, that after tracking/analyzing my trading history and performance that i'm going to discover that I'm more of a #6, 'the little chicken inside my head told me too'.

That's what I'm trying to fix here.

 

[WorkFE]

Got it.
Tracking interest or dividends if we acquired those would actually be easy.
If I track the closing price everytime I purchase one would think I could track my gains/losses at years end.
If your annual contributions are be used to calculate the PIP that would seem munipulative.
Seems like alot of information to track especially if you don't B&H

 

[burrocrat]

I'm sure there's a two-word technical term for that phenomenom that better describes my essay there, but it escapes me.

I'm a think outlouder and just writing it down seems to have helped.

I bet the math to track that number is to complex to do internally with your real account. Why bother, all one has to do is make a 'pretend' account with a set beginning amount, never add or subtract from original capital, and then mirror your trades in that.

That should give you a pure gain/loss based only on trading activity?

That is what I was trying to say, I think.

 

[burrocrat]

Burro,
I have never seen interest/dividends on my statements, just automatic 1%, Your contribution and employer match. The only other thing that affects gains and losses is price per share. Either that or I am lost

Poor choice of words on my part. Let me see if I can explain my thinking here:

Let's say you start the year with $100 in your account. You contribute (with match) $10 per month. You finish the year with $300 in your account.

That looks like 200% return, but it really isn't since $120 of it was just your own money contributed. Subtract contributions out and you have $80 profit = 80% return? But not really because some of the value of the extra $80 is gains (increase in share prices) on some of the shares the $120 in contributions bought you?

Does that make sense? (don't ever let me write a math story-problems textbook).

 

[burrocrat]

Great feedback! Thanks. What did you decide on, as far as tracking and, if you don't mind sharing, have you decided on a system or strategy for your TSP for 2010?

That's two questions there I think?

Question 1: I haven't decided yet. I will eventually configure and use Quicken to work with TSP but that will take awhile and might not show me the simple breakdown I'm looking for. I will probably play with all three spreadsheets until I settle on one or modify one to my taste. I've only taken each for a quick drive, I'm sure there's some things I'm missing.

 

[WorkFE]

but that number will still be higher because some of the gains will be 'interest/dividends' on the additional contributions.

Burro,
I have never seen interest/dividends on my statements, just automatic 1%, Your contribution and employer match. The only other thing that affects gains and losses is price per share. Either that or I am lost

 

[burrocrat]

I'm still a little confused about how regular payroll contributions affect things. I think one's yearly totals with contributions will be much greater than start of year amount, so not a true gain/loss type purely on trading/investments performance.

I think that is what's wrong with the PIP thing on the TSP.gov website, just doesn't make sense to me. I suppose one could subtract out DCA contributions for a better picture of actual gains, but that number will still be higher because some of the gains will be 'interest/dividends' on the additional contributions. How do other people handle that?

Maybe I'm just thinking too much (better than talking too much I guess) but I do that too.

What tracking sytems are other's using?

Any other's out there someone wants to share?

 

[burrocrat]

Each one does a good job of tracking TSP, but in slightly different ways. If you are looking for a system to use, I'm sure one of them will appeal to you.

None of them track the L-funds, but I understand that those aren't really meant for active trading. I don't use the L-funds anymore since June 2009 (man that sounds like a 12-step confession ... 'hello my name is burrocrat') so that's not an issue, and I can backtest past IFT's through the commercial software.

Tsptalk's seems clearly laid out and simple to use, just enter current shares and prices anytime holdings change via IFT or payroll contribution, keeps a running total.

Scout's is similar but you enter total $ amount of contribution and it splits it out for you based on % in each fund. Also has some analysis features and flags like SAFE amount to keep you on track and can split out stock funds returns from lily pad stuff.

Both of those seem to require you only update when # of shares change (or when you want get an updated peek).

Nasa1974's is pretty comprehensive with daily, weekly, and monthly performance features. Just enter shares and/or prices and it runs out a bunch of calculations for you. This one seems to be well set up for daily maintenance, if you miss a day then daily totals are off until you get a second price update in there, presumably as long as you enter fridays then weekly totals will still be accurate, same goes with monthly.

All keep a running total so that's good.

 

[tsptalk]

Woops, looks like it was answered as I was writing...

 

[tsptalk]

Great feedback! Thanks. What did you decide on, as far as tracking and, if you don't mind sharing, have you decided on a system or strategy for your TSP for 2010?

 

[burrocrat]

I have been given three different spreadsheets that all track TSP, thanks Tsptalk, Scout, and Nasa1974.

All require that you enter ending 2009 shares and prices, then keep track as you go for 2010 performance. Simple to start and maintain, perfect timing as the new year rolls around.

When I first joined I noticed Scout's and Tsptalk's in the utilities section here, but then never made it back to follow through. Nasa1974 recently shipped me his version.

I haven't taken a detailed look yet, but I did run some pretend numbers through each to get a feel for it.

 

[burrocrat]

I was (not very diligently) using an outdated version of 2005 money software and wanted to upgrade to something that could track investments too, particularly TSP. Also, I almost certainly think I'm a better investor than I actually am and as my TSP balance grows I want to refine my strategy and give myself a better shot .

That starts with taking an honest look at how succesful my past performance was. I found out that Quicken Premier will (automatically if you want) keep track of multiple checking/savings accounts and brokerage/roth ira accounts for a good 'net worth' picture.

Turns out that there are utilities on this site that also allow it to track tsp, including the L-funds. That was important to me because up until June of this year I always had some in those funds, mostly L2040, and I need to evaluate a few years of contributions and transfers.

But it costs about $90, has a steep learning curve, and will take a while to populate with past transactions.

The size of that job gets a little intimidating, and may require some motivation to complete.

 

[Show-me]

What you going to do?

 

[burrocrat]

Ask and you shall recieve!

A few weeks ago I made up my mind to do a better job of managing my personal finances in general, and to get an accurate (honest) picture of my TSP performance specifically.

That led to conversations and/or contributions from Boghie, Nasa1974, Scout, and Tsptalk.

I am excited about what I have found so far. It is amazing to learn how different folks have arrived at similar solutions to the same problem. I'm sure there are others out there too.

Now is a great time to get on track with a system that works and start new year off on the right foot.

Thanks you guys for sharing the fruits of your labor.

I didn't want to clutter up any one person's thread and didn't see a forum or thread where it might belong so it is here on the bulletin board.