Timing the "I" Fund

[coolhand]

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Let's see...EAFE up 1.28% and the share price of the "I" fund "jumped" a whopping 7 cents. :X

The last time I jumped out of this fund on a seemingly big gain it did the same thing.

(I didn't sell this fund today) Just something to keep in mind though.

 

[Birchtree]

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About a week or so ago the EAFE recorded a substantial down which was never reflected in the change of the I fund - it remained unchanged. I've been watching for the play as you go administrator to zero sum it out and by clipping the gain from to day appears that today was the catch up day. They do that to frustrate timers.

 

[coolhand]

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Yeah, it works both ways for sure. It may just be my perception, but they seem to be doing a much better job of it lately.

 

[tsptalk]

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A big BINGO for the I fund today.

 

[coolhand]

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Yeah, now if we can just get ourmarket to follow along.

 

[Guest]

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coolhand wrote:

Yeah, now if we can just get ourmarket to follow along.

Has been bringing up the rear for two years.

Keep in mind when the USD falls the oil price for other countries gets lower. Oil is priced in USD.

I am in Thailand and the gas prices are falling. That is right. Their currency is getting strong and the price of crude is cheaper for them.

I have been preaching"importing inflation and exporting currency appreciation" that is whatI mean.

Think outside your borders. :^

 

[Guest]

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DMA wrote:

coolhand wrote:

Yeah, now if we can just get ourmarket to follow along.

Has been bringing up the rear for two years.

Keep in mind when the USD falls the oil price for other countries gets lower. Oil is priced in USD.

I am in Thailand and the gas prices are falling. That is right. Their currency is getting strong and the price of crude is cheaper for them.

I have been preaching"importing inflation and exporting currency appreciation" that is whatI mean.

Think outside your borders. :^

Which is why all other stocks market are flying.

ASX hit a4 plusyear high today - Australia. Their currency goes up - their crude gets cheaper.

Scary stuff - huh?

 

[coolhand]

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That's funny...earlier this year that simply was not the case. As the dollar got stronger gas kept rising anyway.

 

[Guest]

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coolhand wrote:

That's funny...earlier this year that simply was not the case. As the dollar got stronger gas kept rising anyway.

That simply is not a correct statement. How quickly we forget? Remember the rah rah CPI/PPI earlier this year on falling gas prices? That was when the USD was at 92.

 

[Birchtree]

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Catch the I fund if you can or dare. The EAFE has a 22% weighting for Japan - and the Nikkei 225 is up another 115 points tonight. Scratch that it is now up 146.

Japanese stocks rallied as investors put aside concerns about the country's political risks and focused instead on stronger than expected manufacturing orders and an improving outlook for corporate earnings. The government said core machinery orders jumped 11.1% in June, the first increase in three months and nearly double a consensus forecast for a 5.7% rise. Core orders are considered a leading indicator of capital sprnding. All Nikkei subsectors rose yesterday.

Talk about a liftoff - this move has gone from a low in May of around 10,800 to well into 12,200 for the moment.And we actually have a better economy. Is this a harbinger of what is ahead for the USA?

 

[Guest]

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Birchtree wrote:

Catch the I fund if you can or dare. The EAFE has a 22% weighting for Japan - and the Nikkei 225 is up another 115 points tonight. Scratch that it is now up 146.

Japanese stocks rallied as investors put aside concerns about the country's political risks and focused instead on stronger than expected manufacturing orders and an improving outlook for corporate earnings. The government said core machinery orders jumped 11.1% in June, the first increase in three months and nearly double a consensus forecast for a 5.7% rise. Core orders are considered a leading indicator of capital sprnding. All Nikkei subsectors rose yesterday.

Talk about a liftoff - this move has gone from a low in May of around 10,800 to well into 12,200 for the moment.And we actually have a better economy. Is this a harbinger of what is ahead for the USA?

Oil is priced in USDs.

When USDs goes down. Oil for other counrties becomes cheaper.

The harbinger is the U.S. stock market is DOOMED.

 

[Guest]

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Day after a rate hike:





87.30
-0.27

FOMC needs to go .50 at next meeting.

:^ Operation Save USD.

Trade balance :shock::?:s:*:#

 

[Birchtree]

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I think the trade balance may deliver a pleasant surprise like last time. There is definitely progress being made in that area - Japan is a good example. Capital spending and net exports will begin to do some of the heavy lifting which is the normal course of events in an expansion of any magnitude. And don't forget we have to rebuild several countries.

 

[Mike]

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I was right about the I fund. Sadly, I jumped out one day early.

 

[Guest]

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Birchtree wrote:

I think the trade balance may deliver a pleasant surprise like last time. There is definitely progress being made in that area - Japan is a good example. Capital spending and net exports will begin to do some of the heavy lifting which is the normal course of events in an expansion of any magnitude. And don't forget we have to rebuild several countries.

Only -55B "last time was pleasant surprise"? :shock:

Crude was what $10-15 lower then? :shock:

I feel like I am on Fantasy Island. I love this board.

 

[vectorman]

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Mike wrote:

I was right about the I fund. Sadly, I jumped out one day early.

Sometimes it's nice to be right, especially if you canmake it count.

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/view_topic.php?id=1956&forum_id=22&jump_to=26104#p26104

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/view_topic.php?id=1782&forum_id=10&jump_to=23906#p23906

 

[Spaf]

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Mike wrote:

I was right about the I fund. Sadly, I jumped out one day early.

Upset huh!

Don't feel bad! Heck if I won the Lottery, the bank would be robbed the next day!:?

 

[Guest]

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Spaf wrote:

Mike wrote:

I was right about the I fund. Sadly, I jumped out one day early.

Upset huh!

Don't feel bad! Heck if I won the Lottery, the bank would be robbed the next day!:?

That makes a market. Some folks happy, some folks sad. It is addicting.

I have played the lottery and then can never find my tickets to see if I won. Then they have those lotteries where the winner never claims the prize and I think??? Wonder if was the tickets I misplaced.

 

[coolhand]

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EAFE up 1.525% today! :^

Should be about 25 cents, but we know how that can go. o

 

[Guest]

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coolhand wrote:

EAFE up 1.525% today! :^

Should be about 25 cents, but we know how that can go. o

This was because of the falling USD.

Euroland got whacked yesterday.

:shock:If you read my posts in this thread - that is actually what I have been talking about. :^