Time to take a breather

[Mr. Duke]

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Been steady with the I since mid Feb...Toughed it out for the month of March to finally pull off a slight gain on the last two days of the month....got out after the first day of trading in april with better that 1.6%...Decided to hide in the G until after profit taking....My reasoning is we don't need to make money hitting new highs....just recovering the same territory......Duke Rocks hey Lou

Personally would not be in anything but S or I and hide in the G:dude:

 

[tsptalk]

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Welcome Mr. Duke!

Solid reasoning. What kind of time frame are you talking about for the S and I, hide in G strategy? Just for now or always? I ask because if interest rates start getting raised, which may not be far off, the C fund (large caps) may start outperformingthe interest rate sensitive small caps. The change may not happen overnight but it is part of the economic cycle.

Thanks for joining us.
Tom

 

[Mr. Duke]

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Currently myself and a few co-workers have been tracking the funds daily (since Aug 2003) and loading into a Quattro Pro spread sheet. We track gain percentages for all funds except G because it is pretty much constant... We look/shoot for achieving a 2.5-3.0 percent gain monthly (30-36% annually) (Original goal was 5% a month)and then getting out and perserving our gain in the G. Not much theory involved just hop on the fastest horse and ride it long enough to achieve our goal...The less time in the fire the better...Of course timing is everything and even the best analyst says market timing is difficult if not impossible...However, a threshold/median can somewhat be viewed....ie; if the "I" were to have a couple of 16-20 centlosses in succession, I would probably be back in...not to say we may not have a couple more or even a weeks worth of bad days, but I feel the market will rebound and I can recapture the 32-40 cents easier than waiting for the I price to hit 13.97-14.05. Of course when people are out and the market goes up it is always difficult to ride the side lines, But that is what must be done...Only human nature to jump in High because we feel we are missing the train...Just remember what goes up must come down new highs just allow us to recover ground after the profit taking occurs.

When I'm in, I'm in ...100% Currently either I'm in the I fund or G....If the S & P

(C) starts running with Interest rate hikes (not expected probably till the end of the year) I will possibly go with C and F :dude:

 

[Wheels]

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If we get one more jobs report like the last one then you can start looking for that first interest rate hike this summer.

Dave

 

[tsptalk]

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Sounds like we are on the same page Mr. Duke.

Wheels -
I agree, if the fed doesn't start moving slowly now (.25 points) he will be scurrying to catch up later with .50 point hikes which will cause havoc. It's always fun to be fully invested whenA.G. springs a .50 pointer on you. :shock: But with the election coming up you never know what is up his sleeve.

 

[Mr. Duke]

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Never can trust the old man but like I said ....just need to get in long enough to make a profit and get back out ....easier said than done but that is the plan....Got to have a plan :dude:

 

[Mr. Duke]

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p.s. my gain for april was only .60..... not 1.6 the I fund finally pulled to the positive on the last day of the month....