This Week in Stocks: 8/25 - 8/31/07

[Show-me]

The Week Ahead

Last Update: 24-Aug-07 13:49 ET

The coming week could end up being a quiet week, if for no other reason than there is a feeling of exhaustion after the last few weeks. At the same time, participants are sure to be aware that a long weekend awaits with Labor Day on Monday, Sept. 3rd.

In the interim they will be contending with a smattering of earnings results, highlighted by reports from Freddie Mac (FRE) and Dell (DELL), on Thursday.

The economic calendar will carry some influence in the coming week, too knowing that the Fed's favorite inflation indicator, the core-PCE index, is due out before the start of trading on Friday.

Also on Friday, Fed Chairman Bernanke will give what will undoubtedly be some closely-watched, and over-analyzed, opening remarks at the Fed Symposium in Jackson Hole.
________________________________________________________________
Monday, August 27:

• Earnings: Shanda Interactive (SNDA)
• Economic Data: Existing Home Sales
• Conference Schedule: Strategic Research Institute Energy Tech Investor Conference
• Fed Speakers: None

Tuesday, August 28:

• Earnings: Corinthian Colleges (COCO); Tuesday Morning (TUES); Borders Group (BGP)
• Economic Data: Consumer Confidence; FOMC Minutes
• Conference Schedule: Strategic Research Institute Energy Tech Investor Conference
• Fed Speakers: None

Wednesday, Aug. 29:

• Earnings: Big Lots (BIG); Brown Shoe (BWS); Dollar Tree (DLTR); Williams-Sonoma (WSM); Chico's FAS (CHS); Novell (NOVL); Payless Shoe (PSS); Tivo (TIVO)
• Economic Data: None
• Conference Schedule: Strategic Research Institute Energy Tech Investor Conference
• Fed Speakers: None

Thursday, Aug. 30:

• Earnings: Ciena (CIEN); Del Monte (DLM); Freddie Mac (FRE); H&R Block (HRB); Tiffany & Co. (TIF); Dell (DELL)
• Economic Data: Q2 GDP- Preliminary; Weekly Initial Claims
• Conference Schedule: Strategic Research Institute Energy Tech Investor Conference; Moody's Perspective on State of Credit Markets
• Fed Speakers: None

Friday, Aug. 31:

• Earnings: None
• Economic Data: Personal Income & Spending; Core-PCE; Chicago PMI; Factory Orders; Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment -Revised
• Conference Schedule: Strategic Research Institute Energy Tech Investor Conference
• Fed Speakers: Fed Chairman Bernanke gives opening remarks at Fed Symposium in Jackson Hole

http://www.briefing.com/GeneralCont...vestor&ArticleId=NS20070824134956LookingAhead

 

[Spaf]

The Lilly Pond Report
Sunday August 26, 2007
by Spaf for the Tadpole Savings Pond​

The Frog Report, Le Charts, Doodles, The Lilly Pad, Tea Leaves, and The Tin Box.

The Frog Report:
Croak.............................................Using large caps the 13 day moving average is showing a bullish trend. Bollinger bands are back to normal. The Stochastics oscillator is bullish with %K above %D, but close to over-bought; 80+ range.
So why am I not invested?
I guess it's a lack of conviction! I don't trust V-ish bounces, nor things on light volume. I take a look at what others are doing; tsptalk, Rev. Shark, Trader Fred, and the risk is not worth the reward. I know I didn't mention Ebb; good system, just a little too rich for my blood! If the DOW can make it past 13,400 I may reconsider!

Le Chart
[$SPX]
Large Caps

Charts courtesy of www.StockCharts.com​

Doodles:
$SPX....1479.37 +33.43 for the week....00000...........00000
Stops.............................................Alert (-1%)....Trail (-2%)

Crude closed at.................................71.09 -0.89 for the week ending.
Oil Markers.......................................<70= ok, 70-80= worry, >80= panic (maybe).
NYMEX Link.......................................NYMEX
$WTIC Link.......................................$WTIC

The Lilly Pad
Location..........................................100% G-fund.

Tea Leaves:
Leaves............................................Capital preservation.

Tin Box.
TSP (week ending).............................G=12.08..F=11.47..C=16.56..S=19.92..I=23.77
......(end of 2006)..............................G=11.71..F=11.14..C=15.69..S=18.76..I=22.22

 

[Show-me]

NBR video.

http://www.pbs.org/nbr/wrapper/marketmonitor.html

 

[JTH]

Also, don't forget that September is the worst month of the year! Also, I think that Trader Fred and Rev Shark are still out of the market, and that should be telling us something!

Has anyone factored in how the upcoming Labor Day weekend will effect the market? I'm wonder if It's a good to scale back before the weekend, or a good time to buy?

 

[budnipper1]

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/seasonality_september.gif

I couldn't find any seasonality data for around Labor Day, but here's September.

Tom will likely post the Seasonality Surrounding Labor Day chart in his market commentary very soon. I'll send him an "Ask Tom" reminder.

 

[ATCJeff]

Wow, September is sure a lousy month!
Thanks Budnipper...I think.

Thinking of staying in the F fund all month.....and wait for the next leg down!

 

[budnipper1]

Wow, September is sure a lousy month!
Thanks Budnipper...I think.

If we could take the year, 2002 out of this data, these numbers aren't all that scary factored in with the annual returns of the other four years, but it shows that the month of September hasn't done anything recently to get excited about. I guess one could be optimistic and say that the positive returns for September outnumbered the negatives. But, my gut's telling me it's still another crapshoot.
http://www.tsp.gov/rates/monthly-history.html

 

[Show-me]

This is going to leave a mark! The Fed basiclly said "You made your bed, sleep in it."

 

[fedgolfer]

big ben talks from jackson hole, this is when we'll see the Fed's current stance on the markets. Yesterday's reaction to the minutes was overdone, considering the Fed has done a 180 in its actions. Ben to the rescue. Follow Ebb and be in the markets.

 

[fedgolfer]

worden bros software suggested that as the Dow was selling off yesterday, the institutional money was buying, also at the open this AM... sounds like accumulation.

 

[FogSailing]

The Lilly Pond Report
Sunday August 26, 2007
by Spaf for the Tadpole Savings Pond​

The Frog Report, Le Charts, Doodles, The Lilly Pad, Tea Leaves, and The Tin Box.

Spaf:

Just wanted to tell you that the French influence in the title definitely adds a touch of class...

FS

 

[Birchtree]

Can we close out the Dow today at 13,300. Besides, friends do let friends buy and hold - just ask me.

 

[weatherweenie]

Can we close out the Dow today at 13,300. Besides, friends do let friends buy and hold - just ask me.

Buy and hold results in break even to slight down for Tues. and Wed.

Bunny hopping results in roughly a 2% gain.

Yeah, I know, very short time frame. Don't kill my buzz!! :nuts:

 

[ebbnflow]

Good one, weatherweenie! Birchtree needs to take a class in bunny hopping (tutus optional). :cheesy:

 

[Fivetears]

I remember when a 1% move in the market would raise the hair on anyones back (except Dennis; dude is a rock). These days... it takes a 2%+ move.

How the times and markets have changed.

 

[Spaf]

You got to be young and agile to do the "bunny hop"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QMZaxtjhZ5k

Good one, weatherweenie! Birchtree needs to take a class in bunny hopping (tutus optional). :cheesy:

 

[Show-me]

GDP today, PCE and the Jackson's Hole tomorrow. After that stellar recovery I would suspect some weakness today in anticipation of the more important PCE and Uncle Ben speech.

 

[James48843]

Congrats to the "Ebb" plan.

Now over 20% for the year.

Geeze oh petes- if "the man" ever finds out that Ebb has found the secret to timewarp into the future, look the market, and still make it back here before the cutoff, they are going to get really mad....

I wonder if they still use that "flashy thing"....

 

[fedgolfer]

how will news filter out of Jackson hole? Any scheduled news announcements today, tomorrow, both? We could retest the 200dma and find support and not look back from there, or fall on its face depending on how news trickles out. Low volume/retail selling on Tuesday, followed by huge volume/instiutional & retail buying on Wednesday at key levels really seems to indicate chart/index strength... so any weakness should be bought... all this jibber jabber basically boils down to, save the DD effort on individual stocks, and put TSP on Ebb-control.

 

[James48843]

Bam.


Down on the open.

What a drag.